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-   -   Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=538690)

 Poker Clif 11-05-2007 02:29 AM

Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needed a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

 Poker Clif 11-05-2007 03:46 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
CORRECTED AS NOTED:

When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needed a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the SMALL blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

 Gonso 11-05-2007 04:35 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

For me, no, it's absolutely not a call from the SB. In fact, a hand like K3s is pretty much one of the worst possible hands, esp from the SB. You have the absolute worst position, and you're pretty much playing for a king-high flush or a two pair +.

Okay, you'll hardly ever flop a flush outright. I forget how often it happens it's hundreds to one.

The chances flopping a flush draw -just a draw- is like 10 or 11 percent, so that's pretty tough in and of itself. Then, sometimes the board will be paired which reduces the value of your hand.

But let's say you flop a clean flush draw. Now you have to choose between betting into several players, or checking. Sometimes you'll have to check-fold, other times you might check-raise and commit a lot of money to a draw, if you check-call you might as well just show your flush draw. These are problems with your position more than your hand, of course, but still.

Then, when all is said and done, IF you hit your flush, you still have to get your money's worth. Which is hard to do since it will usually be hard to keep your draw hidden. Finally you will occasionally feel the horror of going through all those hoops just to stack off to a guy who fills up on the river holding a little equity with a set, the A of your suit hitting a fourth suit on the board, or just A7s trapping you.

Making a big 3-bet here to take it down will work often enough against certain tables, and every now and again I do just that in limpy pots like this if my image is good, at least then you can cut down the field and rep a legit hand on later streets. I think folding here is the best choice the majority of the time though, and I hate calling, even getting 10-to-1 or something. As good as those odds sound, you're going to have such a hard time extracting any value out of that spot.

 PantsOnFire 11-05-2007 04:58 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

K3s isn't a speculative hand, it's a trash hand. Most often, you are going to hit a 3 or a K on the flop. Then you'll be saying, "well I have something so I'll call one bet and see the turn".

If you are really serious about this, go to you PokerTracker stats for tourneys and check out your stats for the SB. Then start intsafolding hands like K3s in the SB and in month, recheck your SB stats. If they don't get better, I'll come to where you live and buy you a beer.

 futuredoc85 11-05-2007 05:07 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

K3s is def a call from SB w/ multiple limpers and 100bb stacks, 50bbs and its probably close to neutral and you should probably fold it unless you have a good grasp of post-flop play.

 curious123 11-05-2007 05:32 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.

 PantsOnFire 11-05-2007 05:58 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, my advice is usually generic for the simple reason that we don't have all day to cover the various scenarios. For example, I would mostly fold a hand like K3s in the SB but I would play it in certain situations and/or against certain players.

It also happens that the SB was an area I have been working on for the last several months. I now actually show a profit from the SB (before cost of posting) in MTT play.

 KCW12 11-05-2007 06:27 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

I used to limp almost any two cards from the SB if the pot was not raised and there was at least one limper (I play mostly STTs). After following some advice in the STT forum, I've started throwing away junk like K3, etc. even when getting good odds, and I think my results have improved because of it. Now, the only hands I will limp from the SB that I wouldn't play normally are small pairs, suited connectors and one-gappers, Ax suited, and occasionally any two broadway cards.

 Poker Clif 11-05-2007 08:48 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

(edited for spelling and syntax)

Ok, I appreciate and will consider all the input. However, is there an optimal/mathematical answer to this question? Are there odds (10-1? 15-1?) where this is absolutely a call?

I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

 Gonso 11-05-2007 09:41 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you expand on this a little bit? 'Hey, I'll just complete the SB because it's so cheap' isn't really quantitative. Second, if you feel it's nitty, fine. Perhaps my occasional raise with this hand suits you better?

And to clarify, it's not the cost of completing the SB that concerns me. It's the additional cost of the having to play a suited trash hand OOP, especially when you make a marginal second-best hand as these kind of hands tend to do.

[ QUOTE ]
When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s

[/ QUOTE ]

76s suited plays immensely better than K3s does, and is actually a decent hand to call or 3-bet with here. It's harder to be dominated, and you can hit a flop pretty hand with a hand like this.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can quantify this if the call were for all of your chips, but when talking about regular sized stacks you have to take playability into consideration to call. Tougher players will make it harder for you to extract value of of anything you make.

 jay_shark 11-06-2007 10:28 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

If your hand isn't strong enough to raise in the small blind , then it probably should be dumped .

It's a limped pot so even if you hit your flush (almost never) , you aren't likely to win a monster pot anyway . Two-thirds of the time , your hole cards do not pair the board and you'll be forced to give up the pot (unless you occasionally bluff) . When you do hit about one-third of the time , you'll have to put more money into the pot to find out if it's best .

So your true odds are not really 5:1 . It may be something like 5:2 or 5:3 .

 PantsOnFire 11-06-2007 11:48 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

(edited for spelling and syntax)

Ok, I appreciate and will consider all the input. However, is there an optimal/mathematical answer to this question? Are there odds (10-1? 15-1?) where this is absolutely a call?

I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not a question of odds or mathematics. There is only one scenario where it would be. And that scenario is if there was no more betting, or no more decisions. Sure if you are getting 15:1 on a call and can see all five board cards and don't have to put any more money in the pot, then go ahead, it's probably a correct call with lots of hands.

However, these scenarios usually involve flop play with a significant stack left behind. This is where the trouble can begin.

Take your K3s. A perfect flop might be KK3 or K33. How often does this happen? And if it does, there could be another K out there. And if he pairs his kicker, which is surely better than your kicker, you will lose your stack.

Another really great flop might be a K high flush. However, a A high flush is going to stack you and even a bare A in that suit has a good chance of beating you.

Okay so those are the ideal flops. What about the really good flops like KK9? Well again, any K will likely have you outkicked and stack you. 99 will stack you.

How about a good flop of K 9 2 on a dry board? Any trouble heading your way here?

Here is a piece of advice I was given a while ago by an expert player. Try not to put yourself into a position where you are faced with a difficult decision. I know that as we get experience we say things like "I'll just see this flop and go from there" with trash hands like K3s. And you know what? A lot of the time, you will be putting yourself in a position of having to make a difficult decision.

 El_Hombre_Grande 11-06-2007 12:01 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

I think the only reason to play a hand like K3s from the small blind is if you can get in for the 1/2 bet AND there are two players in the hand who will probably go broke if you hit a monster. I feel like OOP with a hand that you will almost never hit without fear of being dominated is just pretty close to worthless. But at NL, especially 6 man, sometimes you find players who will give you massive implied odds. I'm not talking about a run of the mill fish who is too loose; I'm talking about someone who can't and won't lay KJ or a FD down on a K3379 board for stacks after you check the flop. Those players are increasingly hard to find, so this hand (no matter what the pot odds) is pretty much always going in the muck.

If you think about it, even when you hit two pr OOP you are so vulnerable to pure bluffs. There are always going to be cards on the board that are scary to yr two pr, and when a solid TAG bets big your going to be in a pickle even when you hit your hand hard. If you watch how the poor players go broke, its often when they tagged alond with with a dumb hand (thinking "pot odds, I can call a small raise), hit 2 pr, and assume that the solid reg doesn't read it for two pair, but the solid reg has a set when the money goes in, so he really doesn't care which Bingo hand the SB played.

 PantsOnFire 11-06-2007 12:09 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

 futuredoc85 11-07-2007 05:55 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

the entirety of this post is garbage

 jay_shark 11-07-2007 06:12 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

I think calling with k-3s depends a lot on the odds you will receive on a flush draw and your implied odds if you hit . If the limper has a tendency of making larger than normal flop bets , then being suited is pretty much worthless .

If he always gives you close to the right odds to see a turn card (when you're on a f.d) then it's a good idea to see a flop with it .

 Poker Clif 11-07-2007 09:37 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

the entirety of this post is garbage

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no problem folding, and I keep an eye on my see-the-flop percentage, just to make sure I'm not getting out of line.

There are certainly times that I get up in the 20s, but that's usually when there are so many limpers that I'm getting odds to play low pairs, any suited connectors, or to go with a straight or flush draw.

If anything, I tend to a be a little too tight. Basically, I was trying to find out if I was out of line NOT playing certain hands in micro donkaments where 7 of nine poeple seeing the flop is not exactly rare.

 Gonso 11-07-2007 11:57 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
If your hand isn't strong enough to raise in the small blind, then it probably should be dumped

[/ QUOTE ]

Jayshark's comment here sums it up better than I can.

If you're calling out of position with trash (against several opponents), you're pretty much putting yourself at every disadvantage there is in the game. Against good players you're not going to be able to overcome it for a profit.

Of course there are exceptions; there are times when playing any two cards can be profitable when it comes to weak players can be bullied after the flop... but then I'm sure they're easier to bully when you have decent position as well.

Also, remember we're talking about K3s... a lot of other speculative hands have a lot more value. Small pairs and connectors are way ahead of K3.

 futuredoc85 11-08-2007 07:07 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If your hand isn't strong enough to raise in the small blind, then it probably should be dumped

[/ QUOTE ]

Jayshark's comment here sums it up better than I can.

If you're calling out of position with trash (against several opponents), you're pretty much putting yourself at every disadvantage there is in the game. Against good players you're not going to be able to overcome it for a profit.

Of course there are exceptions; there are times when playing any two cards can be profitable when it comes to weak players can be bullied after the flop... but then I'm sure they're easier to bully when you have decent position as well.

Also, remember we're talking about K3s... a lot of other speculative hands have a lot more value. Small pairs and connectors are way ahead of K3.

[/ QUOTE ]

gonso, what tournament have you ever played in where most of the players at your table arent terrible early in the game when these situations come up? I pretty much only play \$200+ major tournaments at this point and im v. v. v. rarely at a table full of good players. I do agree though that in a tourney stacks are obv shorter than cash so folding is more of an option but 100bbs deep i dont really think its close if there are multiple limpers already.

 gatorch0mp 11-08-2007 08:39 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

Fold or raise (depending on stack sizes).... calling sucks with K3s.

 TheFoxNL 11-09-2007 07:10 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

hmm i TBH i dont think calling in SB is very weak with 1 limper

lets say for ease that the BB isnt raising PF
you got a unraised pot 3 handed and you got a K3s
ok the kicker is crap but alott of times youre K might be good
and arent we depending on our post flop play here ?
if youre post flop play is good and youre able to sence weakness isnt it fine to call in this situation
you might know youre hand is K3 but youre opponents dont

i dont think the K3 matters much here its just the qeustion if you can outplay youre opponents while holding a weaker kicker

playing it in the hopes of making a flush is stupid

qeustion for you guys would you limp along with KTs ?
too me thats no difference then K3
if you hit top pair you still worried about youre kicker
and everything else is just hoping for flush straight or 2 pair wich is stupid

early stage 1 limper i dont mind calling K3s from SB
more limpers or later stage i wouldnt
if youre a weak post flop player i would also avoid calling with it from SB

 Gonso 11-09-2007 08:00 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
gonso, what tournament have you ever played in where most of the players at your table arent terrible early in the game when these situations come up?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's no excuse to play badly yourself. If you feel the other players are so weak, why not take this pot away from them outright, or get it down to one or two players and work them post flop? That's not unreasonable and I'll do that from time to time. Or, why not wait until the next couple of hands and abuse them from position. Playing thier limp game and giving them position isn't really taking advantage of their weaknesses.

Second, stacks being smaller relative to blinds is an argument against long-shot hands OOP like this one, not for it.

I dunno, maybe one of you guys wants to post a couple hands or something and we'll break it down. As is I don't think this is a profitable play under normal circumstances. I don't see how you're not going to wind up committing additional chips to the pot at some point, without really knowing where you are and almost invariably having a marginal hand (again, while out of position).

As far as playing it OOP but HU, that's fine if your edge can compensate you for your bad position and weak hand. The things is calling a limper won't accomplish that, you'll be three way and that's if the BB doesn't 3-bet.

Also, for the record, lol donkaments.

 futuredoc85 11-09-2007 09:57 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
gonso, what tournament have you ever played in where most of the players at your table arent terrible early in the game when these situations come up?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's no excuse to play badly yourself. If you feel the other players are so weak, why not take this pot away from them outright, or get it down to one or two players and work them post flop? That's not unreasonable and I'll do that from time to time. Or, why not wait until the next couple of hands and abuse them from position. Playing thier limp game and giving them position isn't really taking advantage of their weaknesses.

Second, stacks being smaller relative to blinds is an argument against long-shot hands OOP like this one, not for it.

I dunno, maybe one of you guys wants to post a couple hands or something and we'll break it down. As is I don't think this is a profitable play under normal circumstances. I don't see how you're not going to wind up committing additional chips to the pot at some point, without really knowing where you are and almost invariably having a marginal hand (again, while out of position).

As far as playing it OOP but HU, that's fine if your edge can compensate you for your bad position and weak hand. The things is calling a limper won't accomplish that, you'll be three way and that's if the BB doesn't 3-bet.

Also, for the record, lol donkaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

no what i mean is that bad players in the pot make it +EV to limp it. They will call a bet or 2 w/ less than top pair on a K hi flop, they will chase worse flushes when you have a FD, etc. If they become the aggressor at any point you can easily dump it w/o 2 pair+, and you're getting insane odds to complete preflop. The better the players already in the pot are, the harder it will be to show a profit completing. Like i said most tourneys i play start out 100bbs deep and all my cash play is 100bbs+ so thats the depth im talking about here. Once stacks are a lot shallower it becomes an easy fold.

edit: we're misunderstanding each other RE: stack depths, we're both saying the same thing. When i say weak players, i dont nec. mean weak/tight, but loose/passive and bad in general. If they are nits then obv just pop it up pre or fold, but ppl who call down too much postflop make completing ok w/ deep enough stacks.

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