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-   -   Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=538690)

 jay_shark 11-06-2007 10:28 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

If your hand isn't strong enough to raise in the small blind , then it probably should be dumped .

It's a limped pot so even if you hit your flush (almost never) , you aren't likely to win a monster pot anyway . Two-thirds of the time , your hole cards do not pair the board and you'll be forced to give up the pot (unless you occasionally bluff) . When you do hit about one-third of the time , you'll have to put more money into the pot to find out if it's best .

So your true odds are not really 5:1 . It may be something like 5:2 or 5:3 .

 PantsOnFire 11-06-2007 11:48 AM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

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When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

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(edited for spelling and syntax)

Ok, I appreciate and will consider all the input. However, is there an optimal/mathematical answer to this question? Are there odds (10-1? 15-1?) where this is absolutely a call?

I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

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This is not a question of odds or mathematics. There is only one scenario where it would be. And that scenario is if there was no more betting, or no more decisions. Sure if you are getting 15:1 on a call and can see all five board cards and don't have to put any more money in the pot, then go ahead, it's probably a correct call with lots of hands.

However, these scenarios usually involve flop play with a significant stack left behind. This is where the trouble can begin.

Take your K3s. A perfect flop might be KK3 or K33. How often does this happen? And if it does, there could be another K out there. And if he pairs his kicker, which is surely better than your kicker, you will lose your stack.

Another really great flop might be a K high flush. However, a A high flush is going to stack you and even a bare A in that suit has a good chance of beating you.

Okay so those are the ideal flops. What about the really good flops like KK9? Well again, any K will likely have you outkicked and stack you. 99 will stack you.

How about a good flop of K 9 2 on a dry board? Any trouble heading your way here?

Here is a piece of advice I was given a while ago by an expert player. Try not to put yourself into a position where you are faced with a difficult decision. I know that as we get experience we say things like "I'll just see this flop and go from there" with trash hands like K3s. And you know what? A lot of the time, you will be putting yourself in a position of having to make a difficult decision.

 El_Hombre_Grande 11-06-2007 12:01 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

I think the only reason to play a hand like K3s from the small blind is if you can get in for the 1/2 bet AND there are two players in the hand who will probably go broke if you hit a monster. I feel like OOP with a hand that you will almost never hit without fear of being dominated is just pretty close to worthless. But at NL, especially 6 man, sometimes you find players who will give you massive implied odds. I'm not talking about a run of the mill fish who is too loose; I'm talking about someone who can't and won't lay KJ or a FD down on a K3379 board for stacks after you check the flop. Those players are increasingly hard to find, so this hand (no matter what the pot odds) is pretty much always going in the muck.

If you think about it, even when you hit two pr OOP you are so vulnerable to pure bluffs. There are always going to be cards on the board that are scary to yr two pr, and when a solid TAG bets big your going to be in a pickle even when you hit your hand hard. If you watch how the poor players go broke, its often when they tagged alond with with a dumb hand (thinking "pot odds, I can call a small raise), hit 2 pr, and assume that the solid reg doesn't read it for two pair, but the solid reg has a set when the money goes in, so he really doesn't care which Bingo hand the SB played.

 PantsOnFire 11-06-2007 12:09 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

 futuredoc85 11-07-2007 05:55 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

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Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

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the entirety of this post is garbage

 jay_shark 11-07-2007 06:12 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

I think calling with k-3s depends a lot on the odds you will receive on a flush draw and your implied odds if you hit . If the limper has a tendency of making larger than normal flop bets , then being suited is pretty much worthless .

If he always gives you close to the right odds to see a turn card (when you're on a f.d) then it's a good idea to see a flop with it .

 Poker Clif 11-07-2007 09:37 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

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Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

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the entirety of this post is garbage

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I have no problem folding, and I keep an eye on my see-the-flop percentage, just to make sure I'm not getting out of line.

There are certainly times that I get up in the 20s, but that's usually when there are so many limpers that I'm getting odds to play low pairs, any suited connectors, or to go with a straight or flush draw.

If anything, I tend to a be a little too tight. Basically, I was trying to find out if I was out of line NOT playing certain hands in micro donkaments where 7 of nine poeple seeing the flop is not exactly rare.

 Gonso 11-07-2007 11:57 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

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If your hand isn't strong enough to raise in the small blind, then it probably should be dumped

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Jayshark's comment here sums it up better than I can.

If you're calling out of position with trash (against several opponents), you're pretty much putting yourself at every disadvantage there is in the game. Against good players you're not going to be able to overcome it for a profit.

Of course there are exceptions; there are times when playing any two cards can be profitable when it comes to weak players can be bullied after the flop... but then I'm sure they're easier to bully when you have decent position as well.

Also, remember we're talking about K3s... a lot of other speculative hands have a lot more value. Small pairs and connectors are way ahead of K3.

 futuredoc85 11-08-2007 07:07 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

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If your hand isn't strong enough to raise in the small blind, then it probably should be dumped

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Jayshark's comment here sums it up better than I can.

If you're calling out of position with trash (against several opponents), you're pretty much putting yourself at every disadvantage there is in the game. Against good players you're not going to be able to overcome it for a profit.

Of course there are exceptions; there are times when playing any two cards can be profitable when it comes to weak players can be bullied after the flop... but then I'm sure they're easier to bully when you have decent position as well.

Also, remember we're talking about K3s... a lot of other speculative hands have a lot more value. Small pairs and connectors are way ahead of K3.

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gonso, what tournament have you ever played in where most of the players at your table arent terrible early in the game when these situations come up? I pretty much only play \$200+ major tournaments at this point and im v. v. v. rarely at a table full of good players. I do agree though that in a tourney stacks are obv shorter than cash so folding is more of an option but 100bbs deep i dont really think its close if there are multiple limpers already.

 gatorch0mp 11-08-2007 08:39 PM

Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

Fold or raise (depending on stack sizes).... calling sucks with K3s.

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