HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

What is the optimal win rate for a HU SNG player in your opionion. I understand as you move up in stakes and depending on if you play Turbo or Non Turbo, it will differentiate. What would an optimal win rate be for $20, $30, $50, and $100 HU SNGs on Pokerstars (NON TURBO).

Recently, I moved up to the $20 and $30 HU SNG's, and for some reason I have a win rate of 70.97% out of a total of 155 games (110/155). This could either be I am running real good or I am getting lucky, but I was wondering when could I feel comfortable in saying I am an "X" win rate player. I personally am planning on playing 500 games and then looking back at my win rate, but even then I won't really be certain of my true win rate as variance will haunt me sooner or later.

Thank you for your comments.

Goodluck at the tables,
-- MxGucci

Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

An optimal win rate would be 100% but I guess anything over 52.5% is good. Don't get bogged down thinking about win rates, play well and make good decisions and the rest will follow.

Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

I found this in the faq, it should help a little

Jay Shark on how you know if you're a winning player

Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

Thanks!

Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

Using the marginal of error formula , we can say the following :

Solving for 1/(M.O.E)^2 = N , where N is the total number of games played .

In this case , you've played 155 games with a sample win-rate of 70.97% . So at two standard deviations from the mean(or with 95% confidence) , you're true win rate is M.O.E=sqrt(1/155)
and so your margin of error is 8.03% . So with 95% confidence we can say that your win-rate is in between [70.97%-8.03%,70.97% + 8.03%] or [62.94%,79%]

Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

Thank you Jay for taking the time to do that calculation for me. I love your formula though! Great stuff.

Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

You are an excellent player. You shouldn't worry too much about win rates, IMO. It is not like you are skating on the edge of a cliff.

Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

70.97% is INSANELY good.

Does sharkscope check your winrate? (if so, where? i want to check mine!)

PS: have you been getting my PMs? You haven't been on AIM at all recently [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
 

honestly, i agree with some of what's been said above. you're probably playing a very solid game. keep doing that and don't worry about your winrate. play solid and make good moves, and the winrate will follow.