Choosing lines
If you have a choice of lines in an NFL game, let's say:
Miami -2.5 +105 vs Miami -3 +120 Which line do you choose? I'd say take the -2.5, but I'm not sure how big a difference in payout not pushing a 3 point win should be worth. How much is a half point worth for a non-key number, like getting off a 5? If this was NCAA instead of NFL, what effect would that make on your calculations? |
Re: Choosing lines
According to King Yao, getting off the 3 is about 23 "cents". Obviously, will vary depending on specific data/time period/etc. Ganchrow cranked out some NCAAFB numbers on push percentage here:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-footba...requencies.html |
Re: Choosing lines
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