So Am I A NIt?
 

Perhaps by some people's standards. If you use the gambler's scale. But certainly not otherwise. Here are two questions:

All of the people in this country with a liquid bankroll between 100K and 10 mil are offered 7-5 on the flip of a fair coin. ONE TIME ONLY. There is NO DOUBT the flip is fair. Doubt is assumed not to be part of this problem, though in real life it would be.

A. How much do you think I would REALLY bet as a percentage of my bankroll?

B. What proportion of all 100K to 10 Mil Americans would bet a higher proportion of their bankroll (lets also elimate those with pressing expenses)?

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

Bet a proportion "higher" than what ??

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet a proportion "higher" than what ??

[/ QUOTE ]

than DS obv

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

higher than he would obv

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

.... which would be what proportion, in your view ?

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

If I had a 1mil BR I would bet like 150k at 7-5 good odds [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

.... interesting to you perhaps, but that is not what DS asked.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

I think I would go with 5%.

a. I think you could go with a number around 5%

b. I bet most Americans would go with a lesser number

People are generally very risk averse.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps by some people's standards. If you use the gambler's scale. But certainly not otherwise. Here are two questions:

All of the people in this country with a liquid bankroll between 100K and 10 mil are offered 7-5 on the flip of a fair coin. ONE TIME ONLY. There is NO DOUBT the flip is fair. Doubt is assumed not to be part of this problem, though in real life it would be.

A. How much do you think I would REALLY bet as a percentage of my bankroll?

B. What proportion of all 100K to 10 Mil Americans would bet a higher proportion of their bankroll (lets also elimate those with pressing expenses)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most americans would not do this for a substantial amount of money, but only because of various irrational prejudices about gambling. Their other behavior shows that they are willing to take equivalent or larger risks in major life decisions/investments/etc.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

I'd guess you'd be in the 10-15% range which is what I'd do too and I think am a bit of nit, but that's not a bad thing. I like having money...

Having watched Deal or No Deal I'd think the majority of Americans has no concept of BR management and would bet 125% it that was an option. That's probably not a good sample though...

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

This has got very little to do with nittiness imho.

A) 90%
B) <1%

What makes you able to gambool to such a large extent here is that

a) You have no immediate family to care for. That is, no wife that I know of, and no young children. I assume you livve in a single person household.

b) More importantly, I'm sure you are very certain to earn substantial amounts of money in the future through book sales, magazine articles, endorsements and 2+2. If you were busto today I assume you would have no problem making a decent living for the rest of your life anyway.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

I fail to see how the question is relevant. As relating to nits.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

i'm gonna say 5% as a minimum. If your playing nlh with a 20 BI br and you are getting 7-5 on a flip you should happily get it all in and folding would be a mistake.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

Stop creating new useless threads and finish the one you started. Start naming names.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

These questions are just dumb.....I hate all your posts skalnsky

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

i think 100k-10m is way too large of a range because the answer should be different if you had 10mil than if you had 100k. Assuming you were a winning poker player with 10mil you could still make a great living with a 2mil br but the difference between 100k and 20k is a being able to make a living at all and your RoR after dropping down would be actually exist whereas with 2mil if your willing to drop down when necessary your RoR is effectively zero.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

david, honestly, you are a bit of a nit and you should know that when you get up from the table to do whatever you do, i sometimes hear people make nit jokes about you. people do get annoyed quite a bit by your get up from the table and walk endlessly thing. it doesnt bother me though. why would i want you in the game?

im sure youd risk a higher % than the average american, but that has alot to do with your mentality and understanding of odds. it also has to do with you being exposed to such gambling. im sure youve sat with 10% of your bankroll at a poker table several times in your life. the majority of people with 100k-10m have not.

id probably risk 25% of my roll on that flip, but that has alot to do with the fact that i dont want to go under a certain # amount for my bankroll. if i had more id flip for a higher percent. i guess that makes me a sick degenerate. sweaters is talking about 5%. he must play nl with 200 buyin rolls.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

[ QUOTE ]
These questions are just dumb.....I hate all your posts skalnsky

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

Expert Brandi tutelage deflection, Dave. Kudos.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

LOL @ DS taking stuff said in NVG personaly, what a nit

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

Your books were better [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

5% is preposterous. As someone else has pointed out, anyone with 20BI would take 7:5 flips all day for their stack.

I think 10-15% is minimum for any successful poker player. I'd be surprised to see anyone go above 35% though.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

joey thats not entire true. if your bankroll is 10m/year with an annual income of 500k, you should be alot more conservative than if your bankroll is 100k with an annual income of 100k. if you lost a huge portion of your 10m bankroll on a flip, it would take you a very long time to recoup it. there is a huge difference between 5m and 10m, but to most people there isnt as much difference between 10m and 17m. its called utility. with a 100k roll and large income you can be more aggressive.




also david, many americans might not flip for that 7:5 deal because if they win they have to pay taxes on it and if they lose they cant deduct it because theyre not gamblers. i know, huge technicality. why did i bother.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

Needs more beedogs imo, do you see why?

http://beedogs.com/index_files/image002.jpg

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Needs more beedogs imo, do you see why?

http://beedogs.com/index_files/image002.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
I do.

http://www.beedogs.com/index_files/image016.jpg

http://www.beedogs.com/index_files/image021.jpg

http://www.beedogs.com/index_files/image025.jpg

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

David's question is boring. I've got a better one:

A hot but slightly crazy young woman asks you to teach her to play poker. If you take up her challenge, you have a 100-1 chance that you'll SIIHP.

a.) How many hours of your valuable time do you spend on this before deciding that it's -EV?
b.) How many 2+2 readers would spend even more time than Sklansky pursuing this goal?

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

I'd risk 30% of my bankroll, but one of the conditions would be that the flip was in extra slow motion (taking 1-2 weeks to complete), so I could say "meh...I just had one of your ordinary 7.5 buyin downswings" if I lost.
Besides, the flip is worth like (money risked)*(1.4) sklansky $s anyway.
w00t.
For added insurance, I'd probably get Mike Matusow to bet against me. If I lose, at least I could exclaim that the coin was rigged (the ability to do so is like the highest honor possible).

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Needs more beedogs imo, do you see why?

http://beedogs.com/index_files/image002.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]


Bee Dog ftw

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

[ QUOTE ]
David's question is boring. I've got a better one:

A hot but slightly crazy young woman asks you to teach her to play poker. If you take up her challenge, you have a 100-1 chance that you'll SIIHP.

a.) How many hours of your valuable time do you spend on this before deciding that it's -EV?
b.) How many 2+2 readers would spend even more time than Sklansky pursuing this goal?

[/ QUOTE ]

I remember a young lady by the name of <font color="blue"> </font> {name irrelevant} who...blah blah blah

BLAH

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

You should just go ahead and create your own forum...oh wait

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

good post but i think the odds are closer to 1:1.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

My point basically was that with a 10m roll losing 80% and still having 2m you could make a ton of money and still live comfortably and never have to worry about going broke if you use good br management. If you have 100k and lose 80% you not only risk having to make lifestyle changes but with 20k you pretty much will be playing the smallest stakes games around (assuming live) and you still have a realistic chance of going broke (even though it should still be pretty low if your good), and with 2m your ror would be zero if you drop down continously if necessary.

edit although i do agree that making up 80k with a 20k roll is a lot easier than making up 8mil with a 2mil roll but if its a finite roll and you don't have credit or assets to back it up you'll be fine with 2mil but could be in serious trouble with 20k.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

honestly i think people generally might gamble more than you expect. there is that popular tv show... i forget what it is called but there are all the different suitcases with different amounts of money in them, and people get offered buyouts by some dude, and they have to decide whether to take the buyout or continue to gamble.

im always really surprised at these poor families who pass up on 100k to go for more, when they have a 1 in 4 (or whatever) shot of getting like $50.

i dunno, just sort of an anecdote, but either that show selects people that tend to be gamblers, or people are bigger gamblers than you would think.

that all being said, as i'm pretty yougn now, i think i'd probably risk like 30% of my networth on one flip. i can always make it back.

i think most people would risk less, because most people are older than me and have more responsibilities/people depending on them.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

The only thing more useless than these questions is people caring if someone is a "nit" or not, or even more so, accusing someone of being a nit. Of course you're going to wager more money in this situation than most people because you're smarter than most people and realize it's a good situation.

Some people don't put their money at risk if they don't feel they have the best of it. You are one of those people, I am one of those people, more than 90% of this forum are those kind of people. "Nit" or "Smart"?...it sounds like [censored] semantics to me.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

$1,428,571.00 is the amount I would bet if I had 10,000,000.

If I had 1,000,000 I would bet $142,857.00.

For a 100,000 roll I would bet $14,285.00.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps by some people's standards. If you use the gambler's scale. But certainly not otherwise. Here are two questions:

All of the people in this country with a liquid bankroll between 100K and 10 mil are offered 7-5 on the flip of a fair coin. ONE TIME ONLY. There is NO DOUBT the flip is fair. Doubt is assumed not to be part of this problem, though in real life it would be.

A. How much do you think I would REALLY bet as a percentage of my bankroll?

B. What proportion of all 100K to 10 Mil Americans would bet a higher proportion of their bankroll (lets also elimate those with pressing expenses)?

[/ QUOTE ]


A. If you go by Kelly, then around 14%.

B. Probably a very low proportion. I think a lot of the more savvy types might bet the Kelly amount, especially as the could view it as just gambling with a year's return on a portfolio of passive investments, with the upside of increasing their "roll" by 40%, and without having to dip into investment capital except for one year's return not possibly being reinvested partially or in full.

But in fact, I think the majority of that class of people might not even be willing to wager 14% of their roll, as they would mistakely view the wager as "gambling", not realizing that is what their investments are as well, and that might especially be the case if they are more into real estate.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

By posting this question you just proved you're a NIT (I'm one too, it's not always a bad thing)

A true "are you a nit or not" question would be, assume the coin is fair, it's 50/50, and you only get one toss. What % of your bankroll would you flip for? That's seperates the nits from non-nits.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

[ QUOTE ]
honestly i think people generally might gamble more than you expect. there is that popular tv show... i forget what it is called but there are all the different suitcases with different amounts of money in them, and people get offered buyouts by some dude, and they have to decide whether to take the buyout or continue to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the "Deal or No Deal" scenario isn't really illustrative (prob b/c of the allure of "life-changing" money) - I work in research, and one of our stock questions is as follows:

If you were given the option of taking $50 now, or flipping a coin for $200, which would you take?

Generally, 70% or higher take the guaranteed $50 - often it's 80%, even in areas with a higher educational demographic. It would also seem that the true judge of "gamble" is for non-life changing sums, right?

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

Well if someone offered me a guarenteed 100mil or a flip for 500mil i would take the guareneed 100mil.

Re: So Am I A NIt?
 

Players at the Bellagio often say, when they hear "David S 1-2 limit hold'em, David S" that you'll only sit if there's two drunks and a guy with an oxygen tank sitting at the table.

Still, who cares what people think. You're not there to win opinions or friends.