Satellite strategy question... how do you play this?
 

This is a satellite to a $200+$15 tourney. There are about 100 entrants left after the first break/add-on period. There are 35 seats (no cash) up for grabs which is really quite a good situation.

However, the stacks range from $5K to $20K, the blind level interval is 12 minutes and the blinds are 100/200. You have $10K which is an average stack, an M of 50 and lots of time to play. However, your goal is 35th place not 1st.

So there is no real urgency, at least I don't think. My idea is to play solid and only push hard when you feel you have a big edge. Don't bother with bluffing or chasing (well maybe semi-bluffing).

Any thoughts???

Re: Satellite strategy question... how do you play this?
 

You're going to need in the neighborhood of t30k to win a seat.

Even though you might be able to squeeze in, it's way to early to start speculating about that.

You'll have to win the missing t20k sooner or later.

Play your usual (most +cEV) game, adjust to the table etc.

Re: Satellite strategy question... how do you play this?
 

McMelchior - is that really true? You're suggesting one needs to shoot for an avg chip stack as the bubble approaches, but with an avg chip stack, more than half of the field will be in worse shape than you - given the leaders will prob have huge stacks... there intuitively seems to be more wiggle room than this...

Is there an optimal stack size to shoot for to be able to safely fold into the money with say 5-10 players left? Or some way to roughly quantify this?

OP, also, read the stickie - there are some good posts about satellite play (attacking mid-sized stacks, etc.)