Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

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"River paired the 4 so I had a full house and I bet and he immediately raised! WTF? Now what?"

you absolutely have a crying call here. I do not understand how people think this guy is capable of going 7 bets on the big streets with just an overpair. Even lags would have trouble doing that.

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Take it street by street, regardless of the X-bets, that's all in the pot now.

Think about DDs image, "showing 32o semibluff", WTF? Granted I know more history about DDs game. Ive seen 7 bets go in on the flop, 3 on the turn, and watch his opponents check/fold the river in complete mystery to me.

We know two important things that converge on the river:

1. He didn't 5-bet the turn.
2. AA and KK beat QT, T6, Q6.

You are putting him on exactly QQ? It debatable if he'll raise preflop out of the BB here w/TT given his description. I'm sure DD can fill in more about aht. And, he just doesn't call the turn with those two hands, he gassing DD down the to felt with those.

3-bet the river.

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

Joetall, let me turn this around on you. Say, for some reason, you had a somewhat tight/passive image and were up against somebody you thought to be a tricky lag: would you raise the river with aa/kk after having gone 4 bets on the turn? If not, are there opponents you regularly play with at these limits where raising AA/KK would be a good idea?


BTW- if you somehow manage to mess my point up here there are plenty of other good reasons why 3-betting the river is spew [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

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Joetall, let me turn this around on you. Say, for some reason, you had a somewhat tight/passive image and were up against somebody you thought to be a tricky lag: would you raise the river with aa/kk after having gone 4 bets on the turn?

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When you break it down like that, how could I not now that I beat 3 of his likely holdings?

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If not, are there opponents you regularly play with at these limits where raising AA/KK would be a good idea?


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There is no, way, shape, or form anything normal about this game comparing to what I regularly play in. I know more about what is in play here, but this is poker on steroids when Crazy Mike and DD are in the game a shorthanded game.

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

This is one of the most interesting hands I've seen here in a while. Thanks for posting it DD.

Joe - Does the BB really think DD will bet (and call) the river with a counterfeited two pair (granted, QT could be value betting vs AQ, but still). It's an easy value raise with AA/KK vs an aggro online donk but I get the sense that the BB will just call here with those hands. He may even show up with a missed flush draw (AKs) more often than an overpair...That said, I have no idea why he would smooth-call QQ on the turn...FPS?

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

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Joe - Does the BB really think DD will bet (and call) the river with a counterfeited two pair?

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DD is a self admited showdown monkey. If he had this image that night, I dunno, have to ask him.

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

If you have a weak/tight image and up against a tricky lag you probably wanna showdown so you need somewhere between 50 and 67% equity in order to raise/call the river.

Most of DD's range is Q6, Q4, and 64 (expecting T6 to bet/call the river is ridiculous). However, due to him going 4 bets on the turn, we have to assume he can show up with QT, 66, and 44 at least some of the time.

Stoving AA vs. {Q6,Q4,64} gives AA 43% equity.
AA vs. {QT,Q6,Q4,66,44,64} gives AA 53%

Your equity is between 43% and 53%--definitely not enough equity to raise/call the river here (DD's 3-betting range surely includes 44 and lots of people are saying to include the other fullhouses).

This guy isn't correct to raise the river with AA/KK and he's on the passive side to begin with, so it is highly unlikely 3-betting 64 is good.

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

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AA vs. {QT,Q6,Q4,66,44,64} gives AA 53%

[/ QUOTE ] FWIW, I think DD plays a set faster so we can weigh this a bit and kill the % of him having of 66, 44, driving overpair equity up.


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This guy isn't correct to raise the river with AA/KK and he's on the passive side to begin with, so it is highly unlikely 3-betting 64 is good.

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I understand your point, well taken. I think I know DD, the players, the game texture to well to even respond. You are correct in your analysis, I cant disagree. I'm sure you will not but you can't get caught up in weather he played his hand correctly as we are here to capitalize on our opponents mistakes and I feel our opponent will make one too often here.

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

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I have no idea why he would smooth-call QQ on the turn...FPS?

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Because thats what live players do. They are afraid of losing that extra bet, thinking that they would rather raise the river than 5 bet the turn because "then he will know what my hand is". This line from the villain is rather common with QQ or TT.

IMHO its close between calling and 3-balling. In the heat of the battle I call because of the villain's description - this player type usually doesn't spew too much on the river once there has been tons of action. Additionally if he thinks the river just counterfeited your 2-pair he is more likely to just call than raise.

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

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Gas. I mean, do you really need to call anymore if he freaking 5-bets?

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George, I know what you're saying - the interesting thing about this hand is that his range is polarized to hands that I am drawing dead against and hands I am pretty far ahead of. I agree with what Clark said above, if I am going to continue 4 betting makes a lot more sense than potentially missing two bets if he does take a free showdown with AQ or an overpair (definitely a possibility from a passive live player).

In the end I decided to 4 bet and fold to a 5 bet, but he just called, whew.

River paired the 4 so I had a full house and I bet and he immediately raised! WTF? Now what?

-DeathDonkey

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doing anything other than calling on the river is insane.

Re: Live 75/150 bottom two
 

the problem with trying to c/r safe rivers is that players like this (from what ive read so far) will 3 bet AA out of anger (not in their nature) on the turn here but then "come to their senses" and irrationally check behind on the river.

my first instinct with this hand was call the 3 bet and donk-decide safe rivers and now i think ive formulated exactly why.