50NL Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

OK, I've not been having the best of it of late and so have decided to play less tables, read more, post more and comment when I feel I can.

Thanks for any useful comments.

Villain is 21 /8 /0.3

My question is this. How much is correct to bet on the turn after villain checks to me? Bearing in mind he had $21 left before I make my turn bet?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($63.55)
MP2 ($28.95)
Hero ($122)
Button ($46.20)
SB ($9.50)
BB ($27.25)
UTG ($45.55)
UTG+1 ($15.85)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, Button calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($6.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, Button folds, MP2 calls $4.

Turn: ($18.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets ????

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

You bet the turn? Do you really think the villan is going to play a hand this way that you are either trying to get value from or that hes going to laydown here? I don't think there are many if there is even one. On a semi draw heavy board, where the best draw gets there I check this turn like 99% of the time, especially against a villan whose stats are telling me hes a showdown monkey. Check the turn check riv or fold to a bet.

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

This depends a lot on how villan sees you.

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

Villain raises 8% of hands PF(over 240 hands or so). I think its unlikely hes raising 67s in this position.

If we show strength on the flop by raising and then when he checks the turn and river we check, this IMO is such weak play cause we give 2 free cards for villain to hit his overcards. If we bet the turn we shut the door to his over cards. Surely if he has a big pair hes re raising my flop raise? If he has a set, I'm in trouble but I get the info on the turn.

I'm 13/7/3.5 by the way.

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
especially against a villan whose stats are telling me hes a showdown monkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why let him get there for free then?

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
especially against a villan whose stats are telling me hes a showdown monkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why let him get there for free then?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he usually won't get there at all. Overcards, villain's most likely holding, usually do not improve, but will often bluff after the turn check. But, if you bet to give overcards bad odds, the bet will likely not be for value as you will be called by hands you beat, but you will force out hands that had low odds of improving anyway.

Stack sizes work against you because if you make a decent bet on the turn and get raised there or get lead into on the river, you will have a tough decision because you will certainly be behind, but getting 4:1 or so. If you just shoved the turn however, you will definitely get called only by better hands.

You crossed the commitment threshold on the flop. That is, in theory, you should not have put in so much money on the flop, compared to the effective stacks, without having a plan. Your flop action is best geared toward keeping the turn cheap, so take it. Otherwise, you should have raised more on the flop so that you could call a check raise comfortably, or just called the flop bet so you could raise the turn.

So, check behind and call the river bet.

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

I would just call on the flop. Giving free cards in NL isn't as much of a concern as protecting your stack. Keep the pot small, as his chances of hitting a 6-outer isn't that good, and if he hits, you won't give him action anyway. If you have a big but vulnerable hand, then worry about free cards. That being said, callt he flop, fold if he bets the turn but bet if checked to.

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

because he barely has more than a PSB left I don't think bet sizing is very important. I could see betting or checking but as long as you are betting this you might as well be shoving.

FWIW I will usually 3bet this pre against a 21/8. If he c/raises me on the flop I can usually lay it down and if he calls the flop I am easily checking behind on the turn.
IMO the hand plays out a lot easier if the raise is made pre instead of on the flop

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

You put yourself in a tough spot due to villians stack size. I call flop play position see if villian fires again on turn; villian checks I bet $7 on turn overcards should fold. Any call or raise I'm pretty much done with the hand hope to get to check river since any top pair and up is commiting stack at this point.

If villian bets turn I probably fold looking for a better spot where I don't have to commit so much money on a marginal hand.

Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
 

Unless I want to go the rest. I'm not really into betting turn, if I am willing to go the rest 12ish.

Normally I check this though. Will call on river up to 10ish, if no A K Q falls.