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-   -   November Low-Content Thread (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=536645)

ProfessorBen 11-03-2007 08:08 PM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
Most mistakes are a fraction of a BB/100. It's not like every time you miss a value bet you lose 1BB/100 because 1) That situation probably does not come up every once every hundred hands and 2) You aren't always ahead or behind the times you are called. It's fractional.

SNOWBALL 11-03-2007 08:24 PM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
quick question

how many full BB mistakes can you make in a typical CA mid-stakes game per hour and still be a decent winner. e.g. you play solid poker most the time but then make a few stupid mistakes that are almost a full BB mistake.

Maybe my question answers itself. If great player who can win 1 BB per hour, then a good player who makes a "Full BB Mistakes" every other hour would only be a .5 BB per hour winner. (assuming they played the same otherwise)
Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your reasoning is basically right, but your assumption that the most a great player can win in these midstakes games is 1bb hour is wrong I think.

brick 11-03-2007 09:59 PM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
Understood. I just made about 5 full BB mistakes (not the fractional ones, the kind where I was behind 98% of the time) in a 10 hour session. Trying to feel sorry for myself and decide if I should quit poker.

ProfessorBen 11-03-2007 10:20 PM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Understood. I just made about 5 full BB mistakes (not the fractional ones, the kind where I was behind 98% of the time) in a 10 hour session. Trying to feel sorry for myself and decide if I should quit poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do these situations happen every 100 hands? Do you make the same mistake everytime? If so, then you cost yourself, 5BB/100 . Otherwise, again, fractions of a BB/100.

Just because you make a mistake where you are behind 95% of the time, because 1. pot size 2. it just doesn't happen once every 100 hands.

brick 11-03-2007 11:31 PM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
In the grand scheme they are fractions. I tend to make these mistakes more when I'm stuck and they tend to be the same thing over and over. How much do they cost me on average? I don't know, but I know that I set fire to about 5BB yesterday.

Captain R 11-04-2007 12:04 AM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
Brick, it sounds like you made 5 BB of realized dollar mistakes. In other words, if you had made decision A instead of B, you would have made/saved an extra BB here and there.

But like Ben says, this is bad accounting, because these aren't 5BB worth of Sklansky dollar mistakes. Your EV in all of these decisions aren't -1BB per mistake, they're less than that.

I also agree that a good player can make more than 1BB/hr. in the sick California games. But even good players make -EV decisions every session. It's pretty hard to make a full -1BB EV decision, so I think the difference between a good and break-even player is the sum of several fractional EV mistakes that tend to occur over the course of an hour. So good players are making "less than optimal" EV decisions every session, they're just making less than the bad players.

Don't be too hard on yourself, good players go on tilt and have sessions where they play like a jacka$$ -- everyone has these kinds of days. No one can play their A-game every minute of every hand, the goal is just to try to do your best as often as you can.

Garland 11-04-2007 12:31 AM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]

Don't be too hard on yourself, good players go on tilt and have sessions where they play like a jacka$$ -- everyone has these kinds of days. No one can play their A-game every minute of every hand, the goal is just to try to do your best as often as you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this to an extent. We don't play optimally (A-game) 100% of the time. Everyone goes on "tilt" meaning everyone has moments where they let their emotions dictate their decisions. I don't agree that all good players have sessions where they "play like a jacka$$ and has those kind of days". It's just way too destructive to play like that for an extended period of time. If you're going to be a good player, you'd better be able plug the tilt leak quickly within the session.

Garland

Sailboats 11-04-2007 01:48 AM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
I have held off long enough(1 week), time to go play some poker.

brick 11-04-2007 03:14 AM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
I appreciate your advice not to go too hard on myself but I'm an idiot.
I had a big dream to come to LA and crush the easy games that everyone talks about. I took extended leave from work, took a month off poker, read another poker book, slept in like never before and then finally hit-up LA.

Problem was I has a decent bankroll but a severly lacking emotional bankroll. Also I was used to playing 20-40 in a very easy game with a small player base of very average players.

The LA games played differently because they are much more variable than what I was used to. There are many more players who call themselves "pros" and play long hours and probably win, there is a lot more NL hold'em so people tend to think longer about decisions, there is lot more 3-betting PF, ect.
I'd find games that were great one min and very average the next.

So I played 20 for a while, took a failed shot at 40, and settled into a routine only to find myself running really bad. Then I found myself getting confused by strange players, trying to adapt, and short on emotional bankroll.

I know everyone talks about having a such a huge edge in CA mid-stakes, but based on my experience, results, variance simulations, and critical thinking, I likely have less than a .5BB per hour edge.

Running a few simulates on Homer's steak simulator and it's easy to see that with a small winrate huge breakeven/losing streaks are likely.
http:// help_please1.tripod . com (no spaces the filter is screwing with this link)

After having seven (7) 20BB+ losing sessions in a row it's time to reevaluate. Yes, I've run bad before, know what it's like, and know what it takes to get through.

I was hoping that I had improved enough so that my edge would be greater and variance smaller but doesn't seem like that's the case.

cliff notes: play within your emotional bankroll



brick 11-04-2007 04:04 AM

Re: November Low-Content Thread
 
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/543/33661325bn7.jpg

Edited to provide link to image because this was really annoyingly huge and screwing up the thread width


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