Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

10 handed $225 on the bubble. utg is bigjoe2003.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">UTG (t5225)</font>
Button (t1800)
SB (t2140)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t5835)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t5200</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t4800.

Flop: (t10075) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t10075) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t10075) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t10075

Upon busting, bigjoe informed me that this play was like -$100EV. My reasoning is that while this might be -EV for me, it is worse more -EV for him, and if I make calls like this against regulars, they will not be able to profitably push garbage on the bubble any more vs. my big blind. (he had J6). He said he wouldn't change his push range because I call him there with AK, but I'm not so sure. Seems like he'd have to to maximize profit.

Not to mention, if I fold everything in this situation but AA-QQ I not only make it very profitable for him to push any2 on the bubble, I also make it very likely that once we are in the money I will have equal of less chips than someone who is going to play roughly perfectly, while the other two players were pretty bad and missed out on all kinds of +ev situations, meaning that if I take out bigjoe I have a monster stack and lots of fold equity, giving me a very good chance of taking first.

is my reasoning sound at all, or am I just giving money away?

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

How'd he bust you with J6?

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

he busted, not me. sry if that was unclear.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Oh my bad I can't read.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

You don't want to be flipping when you have such a dominant position against two other stacks on the bubble. Because you are so close in stack size you will be extremely short if you lose here, and AK is flipping against so many hands except like Ax/Kx. A 60/40 here is terrible, it would be better to shove wide on other hands maintaining your lead when he can't call either and hopefully destroy the bubble when the blinds raise or the other stacks shorten.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

According to the nash calculator bigjoe is wrong, john says he should be pushing with only 52 percent and you can call with AKo. I'm guessing bigjoe pushes more than 52 percent here (I seen his videos). So I dunno how he says its a bad call. Also if he wants to lose a large amount of equity every time he shoves 75o, while you only lose a slight amount when you happen to have a borderline calling hand, so be it IMO.

I could easily be wrong about everything said above, just my opinion and I suck.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Post the SNGWhiz plot of $EV difference for AKo vs. bigjoe's push range or it ddn't happen.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

the idea is that, as kevin touched on, its much better to shove when you know he cant call than call off with such close stacks and such a dominating position when hes already shoved.

If hes on any 2, its barely +EV (+0.1)....since bigjoe is known to spite call anyways, I'd probably have just typed in "my bubble!!!!" if i had made the call.

fact is, even if the shorty is calling kinda loose and you calling with as wide as JJ+, AK, he should still be pushing like 90% of his hands, so its almost always going to be +EV or him to be shoving more or less ATC. it sucks but you just cant really call, he got to act before you....such is life.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

You're right, it is -ev for both of you but more so for him.

I can't help but wonder if him saying his range wouldn't change for you isn't in itself a metagame move. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I hope some of the high level regs chime in here with their thoughts on the metagame implications.

Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
 

Nash doesn't apply here. That's for HU.