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-   -   Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=556472)

TJ Eckleburg12 11-28-2007 08:44 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
Forgive the tone of my post, I'm trying to learn and generate discussion at the same time. I've found the best way to do that is to take contrarian positions and talk about the reasons for each side.

So you guys are saying if we raise, having to fold to a 3-bet would be really bad, therefore call?

I'm not looking to get it all in here on this flop, but lets discuss our plan for the hand.

Let's assume we do raise the flop to 3500... then villain can call, raise, or fold. We're 16k behind and not committed yet. I think if he does reraise, we should fold. Even though we don't have a read yet, I think that for the betting we've seen we can safely assume we're behind. I think the minimum we could put him on would be KhJh, KhTh, 2p or better. If Villain calls, then we have position for the next street, more fold equity, and we can re-evaluate. What I believe you guys are greatly underestimating is that I think Villain gives up on the flop most of the time.

If we just call the flop, true, we're playing in a smaller pot... but as OP said, a lot of the deck represents scary bluffing cards, and Villain has the lead and a propensity to apply pressure. We don't know if he's just double barrelling, or if he's actually semi-bluffing something, or tying us into a bigger pot when we're already behind.

If led into on a hypothetical turn, do we raise safe cards? Do we fold to PSB's on bad cards? We pick up a NFD if the hearts hit. If checked to, are we betting? Are we folding to turn check/raises? I think by just calling the flop, it makes the turn decisions much more complicated for us.

I guess the whole point of what I'm trying to say is that I think raising the flop...

a) Gives us more information
b) Protects our hand from 1 pair/weak draws Villain might have led out on the flop
c) Lets us know quicker and cheaper when we're behind
d) Makes for easier decisions on later streets.

TJ Eckleburg12 11-28-2007 08:50 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
[ QUOTE ]
Are you trying to make this hand easier to play or are you trying to get the maximum value?

[/ QUOTE ]

For the board coordination I don't want to let him draw cheaply.

Hearts, straight draws, J-Broadway's... I want them to all pay the maximum.

I'm thinking more of "protecting our hand" than "extracting value, induce further bluffs, etc."

Is that incorrect?

betgo 11-28-2007 09:09 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
How does raise/folding protect you against a draw? This guy is likely to 3-bet a draw or call and bet the turn big whether or not he hits.

TJ Eckleburg12 11-28-2007 09:47 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
Let me try to answer that in a roundabout way...

What range do we put Erik on for his flop lead?

He's obviously pretty aggressive, so I think we can give him a wide range.

KhJh, KhTh, Th9h, 44, and QJ are the worst case scenarios. I think we can also give him the offsuit version of all those straight draws, with 0 or 1 heart, as well as two small hearts. For one pair hands, I'll add KQ, AQ, AJ, KJ, JT, and maybe TT, 99, and air as well.

If we raise, the combo draws probably re-raise, which is bad for us. But the our flop raise would be good for everything else.

That's a good thing if he folds a hand that has a lot of outs on us. We want him folding Ts9s or KT, because those have 8 outs on us that he could catch cheaply had we called the flop.

I suck at counting combos... but the only ones I think we're in real trouble to are the ones that will re-raise, which we can fold for a 3-town.

He folds everything else, or makes a massively incorrect call with everything else, both of which are good for us.

I suck at counting combos, but the vast majority of his range is what we want folding or calling incorrectly. When he does play back at us it's with the hands we don't want to be up against anyway, and we can fold. And we fold out hands that we don't want drawing against us like offsuit straight draws.

I'm sorry if I'm being longwinded... I'm really enjoying this discussion though... even if I'm wrong.

ASPoker8 11-28-2007 10:00 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
TJ it sounds like you want us to raise so the worst hand folds and every single better hand continues

"Raise for information..."

TJ Eckleburg12 11-28-2007 10:13 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
Yeah, I'm not really making a very strong case, am I. Maybe I'm just nitting up and being too risk-averse... been downswinging lately.

I'm re-reading my posts and it sounds like I want villain to let us know when we're behind so we can FOLD NOW, vs. make HIM fold when we're winning. That's not too good, is it.

I'm trying to ask the right questions though.

So what turns are we betting/calling/raising/folding, if we call flop?

Weezey Baby 11-28-2007 11:25 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
small pre-flop raise and call the flop and see another por favors.

11-29-2007 01:21 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
I had exactly the same thoughts as TJ during the hand, I thought Erik could bet into me kinda light there with hands like KQ, T9, KT etc.

Since it´s likely he´s going to put pressure on me if I just call I decided to raise it. I thought for a while and made it 4200.
Erik instapushed back. I think I would have done exactly the same play with QQ/JJ and he knows that. So I think a reasonable handrange for a instapush from him is KTs, T9s, QJ, 44 maybe JJ.
When he pushed I hated my flopraise but afterwards I´m not sure, I think I still would have played it the same way.

betgo 11-29-2007 06:37 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
[ QUOTE ]
I had exactly the same thoughts as TJ during the hand, I thought Erik could bet into me kinda light there with hands like KQ, T9, KT etc.

Since it´s likely he´s going to put pressure on me if I just call I decided to raise it. I thought for a while and made it 4200.
Erik instapushed back. I think I would have done exactly the same play with QQ/JJ and he knows that. So I think a reasonable handrange for a instapush from him is KTs, T9s, QJ, 44 maybe JJ.
When he pushed I hated my flopraise but afterwards I´m not sure, I think I still would have played it the same way.

[/ QUOTE ]
So what did he have? Did you double up or bust out?

betgo 11-29-2007 08:13 PM

Re: Weird hand from 6k tourney in Sweden
 
I guess what I am saying is you are getting 1.6-1 to call the allin. What does he take this line with? I think he has a draw a lot here, and sometimes not a huge draw. He certainly could have 2-pair, but I don't know if a set or overpair is that likely. He could even have a weaker made hand.

I really think you may have odds to call at this point. At least it is close.

When this guy is raising every hand, you have no idea what he has, and you could reraise him with a wide range.

It certainly is easier to play if you make a big reraise and fold to a push, but I don't think this is good play with such a strong hand.


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