Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

Villain is 54/13/1.47 and sucks. No real history, but assume loose passive. He called the flop pretty quick FWIW. I feel like river is a fold, but who takes a different line?


Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $9.09
BB: $26.76
UTG: $48.28
Hero (MP): $97.72
CO: $49.00
BTN: $57.32

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $3.50</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($7.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, BTN calls $5.00

Turn: ($17.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $2.50</font>, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($22.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $12.00</font>, Hero calls $12.00

Pot Size: $46.75 ($2.33 Rake)

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

i like betting the turn, he sucks - he's calling with a lot that you slay there.

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

Bet turn every day of the week, then if i getraised ill call to boat if he lets me. If he doesnt, hmm dam maybe i muck.


However i expect AA/KK/TT/AK to raise the turn and 6/6/3/16 combos.

So 15:16 we beat and sometimes AA/KK show more aggro and TT folds so we can prob discount them.

So i bet the turn, and maybe i have to fold to a raise.

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

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i like betting the turn, he sucks - he's calling with a lot that you slay there.

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what specific hands though? remember he min 3bet me preflop.

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

I bet flop harder against this guy, like 6, I then bet turn hard also. If checked, crai. Even if it's a bit of an overbet he's calling with 2 pair, flush draws and overpairs, which are a big part of his range I think.

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like betting the turn, he sucks - he's calling with a lot that you slay there.

[/ QUOTE ]

what specific hands though? remember he min 3bet me preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

SInce he minraises AA TONNES PREFLOP im going broke on the flop and i think the turn is tough since AK can be a minraise too.

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

i feel like any of his reraising range could still be in the hand...(i put in top 4%, just an estimate, unless u think hes more passive) (adding the river changes the equity down about .2% so nothin much). removing 99 and youre still around 52%

Board: Qc Jc 5h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.027% 44.03% 00.00% 833 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 55.973% 55.97% 00.00% 1059 0.00 { JdJh }

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
i feel like any of his reraising range could still be in the hand...(i put in top 4%, just an estimate, unless u think hes more passive) (adding the river changes the equity down about .2% so nothin much). removing 99 and youre still around 52%

Board: Qc Jc 5h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.027% 44.03% 00.00% 833 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 55.973% 55.97% 00.00% 1059 0.00 { JdJh }

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're overestimating the times he has 99,TT here. maybe occasionally, but not equally weighted. Here's what I used, FWIW

Board: Qc Jc 5h Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.312% 48.31% 00.00% 744 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 51.688% 51.69% 00.00% 796 0.00 { JJ+, AKs, KQs, QJs, JcTc, AKo }

tough to say what an unknown min-raises with, but they seem to like to show up with lots of suited connectors/aces/garbage as well.

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

i think TT is reasonable given the action. players like him, they dont like folding their pocket pairs on the flop, even with the crappy board. i removed 99 (since i dont think a passive is betting it on the turn) and it still gave around 52% equity...

also, i didnt count on a passive player minraising QJs ot JTs...i thought about adding KQs, but i still wasnt sure if h would minreraise it...he might...but thatd just put the equity up more...

so im certainly never folding to his turn or river bets, just a matter of raising...

Re: Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ
 

I see it this way. Villain would play identically with AA/KK/QQ/AK. So with that range alone we're in good shape on the turn. Throw in the fact that this is a 50% vpip donk, and I figure I have more than enough reason to stack off on the turn