What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

Your opponent:
3253 hands
29.17/18.8/1.54
F: 2.0
T: 1.3
R: 0.98
WTSD: 43.5%
W$SD: 55.25%


5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#FF0000">UTG raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.00 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (6.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">UTG raises</font>

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

Stats are only worth so much here and a read about whether he plays WA/WB would be very usefull

But judging from his stats he is prolly capable of playing AT, KT, QT, JT like this.

So I just call. Closer to a fold than a raise

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

Call like it's your job. Opponent is a TAGgish, probably winning player, so a 3-bet is out of the question as there's little value in it (for him to call a 3-bet on this river with JJ or 99 is spewy). Folding is also wrong given that we're getting 9.5:1 here and villain's river raising range should be wider than trip Ts here. I'm not afraid of AA/KK given how passively he played on earlier streets. So he either has a T that he decided to play WA/WB on or he's making a thin value bluff. It's a call.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

Would never 3bet and never fold.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

I wouldn´t bet at all, so nothing from those 3 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

c/c River is way better imho. His River aggro is a little bit low for a tag, but he should still bet any pair, if checked to.

Utg´s ranges should be:
22,44,55-99 and im pretty sure he will bet that vs ur "obvious ak [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]"
flushdraw(2 out there), from j8 to kq or whatever - will fold if u bet.
Ace high, i doubt u are getting many aj or whatever calls
Aaand the T, t9-at all possible

edit: what about reads? How will he play AT, or is he playing a flush draw fast etc

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

C/C is awful. This guy is going to wake up and bluff the river?

B/C cause I would have expected to hear from Tx earlier in the hand, especially given his F/T AF.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

c/c is bad. You doubt we are getting AJ calls? With a WtSD of 43, we are getting A9 calls.

If he would bet AK/AQ/QJ with some appreciable frequency when checked to, it would be a perfect spot for a sexy, but in the absence of further reads, this can only be a b/c.

MORE POLLS
 

Your opponent:
3253 hands
29.17/18.8/1.54
F: 2.0
T: 1.3
R: 0.98
WTSD: 43.5%
W$SD: 55.25%


5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#FF0000">UTG raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.00 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (6.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">UTG raises</font>

Your call button is now broken.

Re: MORE POLLS
 

you cant possibly raise so I guess fold :S

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

I'd call knowing I should have folded.

There's nothing he plays like this that we beat. Whatever he has he played very passively, be it pp, T or fd. On the river suddenly he is no longer passive. Pretty easy to guess which one of the 3 it is. Call and hope he's tilting after yet another fd bricks.

*edit* With new poll I now fold. Unless of course he knew my call button was broken.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

[ QUOTE ]
c/c is bad. You doubt we are getting AJ calls? With a WtSD of 43, we are getting A9 calls.

If he would bet AK/AQ/QJ with some appreciable frequency when checked to, it would be a perfect spot for a sexy, but in the absence of further reads, this can only be a b/c.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not particular because of this post, but

POST HERE MORE PLZ

kthxbye [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: MORE POLLS
 

I call in the first situation but expect to lose quite much. For the same reason I guess I fold in the second situation. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Our opponent doesnt know our call button is broken does he?

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
you cant possibly raise so I guess fold :S

[/ QUOTE ] Unless you feel like 3-bet/folding...nope, didn't think so...

Re: MORE POLLS
 

I would never fold, but it has to be closer to a fold than a raise.

Re: MORE POLLS
 

Sucks that the call button is broken. I am leaning more towards the fold given the villains stats. The agression factor stats for both the flop and river have a lot to do with my decision.

Re: MORE POLLS
 

ugh. how can anyone even think of folding the river?

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn´t bet at all, so nothing from those 3 .

c/c River is way better imho.

[/ QUOTE ]

uggghh.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call knowing I should have folded.

There's nothing he plays like this that we beat. Whatever he has he played very passively, be it pp, T or fd. On the river suddenly he is no longer passive. Pretty easy to guess which one of the 3 it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is also 77-99, JJ a lot. I expect a PP here just as often as a Tx hand

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
ugh. how can anyone even think of folding the river?

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn´t bet at all, so nothing from those 3 .

c/c River is way better imho.

[/ QUOTE ]

uggghh.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call knowing I should have folded.

There's nothing he plays like this that we beat. Whatever he has he played very passively, be it pp, T or fd. On the river suddenly he is no longer passive. Pretty easy to guess which one of the 3 it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is also 77-99, JJ a lot. I expect a PP here just as often as a Tx hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe my games are different but I see JJ never. Underpair rarely. I'd be calling looking for a bluff.

Re: MORE POLLS
 

OK OK I hereby publicly apologize to Mr. Joe Tall for saying everyone would call this is a horrible fold and its closer to a 3 bet than a fold for sure. Clearly I was mistaken.

I still think its an easy 3 bet but you all know the game conditions better than me etc. etc.

-DeathDonkey

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK OK I hereby publicly apologize to Mr. Joe Tall for saying everyone would call this is a horrible fold and its closer to a 3 bet than a fold for sure. Clearly I was mistaken.


[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I think both 3-betting and folding are fairly significant errors.

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe my games are different but I see JJ never.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why are you so afraid of a ten? JJ and Tx play the same on the flop and turn, except that Tx has 3 more outs if behind.

Why would anyone bluff this river? He cant be expectin gyou to fold. I'd call and expect a PP

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still think its an easy 3 bet but you all know the game conditions better than me etc. etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding to a cap?

The more I think about the more I think I could be conviced a 3bet cant be that bad assuming he has a mid PP because no one at 5-T is folding to a 3 bet on the river

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK OK I hereby publicly apologize to Mr. Joe Tall for saying everyone would call this is a horrible fold and its closer to a 3 bet than a fold for sure. Clearly I was mistaken.

I still think its an easy 3 bet but you all know the game conditions better than me etc. etc.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a regular in a party midstakes I am insta 3-betting fwiw.

Its only because his stats kinda indicate he is capable of playing TPTK passive that I hate raising here

Re: MORE POLLS
 

Yes but I doubt he would cap even AT given stats. The crux of my argument was I can't see this guy not sticking in a raise on flop or turn given two flush draws on the turn and top pair with no face cards out. Plus Joe is a statistical LAG if the guy has any stats.

-DeathDonkey

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe my games are different but I see JJ never.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why are you so afraid of a ten? JJ and Tx play the same on the flop and turn, except that Tx has 3 more outs if behind.

Why would anyone bluff this river? He cant be expectin gyou to fold. I'd call and expect a PP

[/ QUOTE ]

Tx is not capping pf but JJ will, tho not neccessarily always. JJ may wait for ace-less flop and then come to life. I see your point tho; they both beat same hands except Tx doesn't beat JJ.

As for a bluff, it's a retarded bluff, but the turn put 2 fd and the river is a semi-scare, so for a spaz it's gotta be tempting.

I still don't understand a 3-bet. Guy has to call to have any value. What hand is calling?

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
What hand is calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

The same ones that riase the river for value and not a bluff?

[ QUOTE ]
As for a bluff, it's a retarded bluff, but the turn put 2 fd and the river is a semi-scare, so for a spaz it's gotta be tempting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would expect a raise on the turn not the river with a fd.

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still don't understand a 3-bet. Guy has to call to have any value. What hand is calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Again. I am not 3-betting in this spot. But when I am, I am expecting to get called by lower pp's, other 1 pair hands and even AK - maybe even AQ.

Re: MORE POLLS
 

I think this : [ QUOTE ]
Plus Joe is a statistical LAG if the guy has any stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

reveals a lot into this [ QUOTE ]
I still don't understand a 3-bet. Guy has to call to have any value. What hand is calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG should know the river didnt help us, he may also know that we know that the river shouldnt have helped him.

Re: MORE POLLS
 

Looks like I'm one of the few who voted raise if the call button is broken. I voted call in the original poll because this could be a bluff or a smaller PP. That's still true, and if our call button is broken, I still don't want to fold. So I have to 3-bet.

What if he caps? Since our call button is broken, does this mean we have to fold even if he turns 72o face up? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: MORE POLLS
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK OK I hereby publicly apologize to Mr. Joe Tall for saying everyone would call this is a horrible fold and its closer to a 3 bet than a fold for sure. Clearly I was mistaken.

I still think its an easy 3 bet but you all know the game conditions better than me etc. etc.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have taken that prop bet. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: MORE POLLS
 

"I still think its an easy 3 bet but you all know the game conditions better than me etc. etc."

"Against a regular in a party midstakes I am insta 3-betting fwiw."

http://www.toyasaurus.co.uk/images/Letter%20A.jpg
http://bobscrafts.com/bobstuff/maze.gif
http://www.ing.com/group/image/banklogo.gif


also kross it depends on how often you're good, not just whether you should call given the initial pot size... math:

assume he never caps Tx so you never have to fold/lose another bet and that he always calls the 3-bet with any worse hand he has. clearly these are all optimistic for 3-betting.

x(11.5)-(1-x)(2)=0 &lt;----- SOMEONE CHECK OK

x=~15%

so if you're ahead more than 15% you should rather raise than fold given the pot is this size, given these irrational assumptions. anyway, it is close. i'd think we're good less than 20% so i'd rather fold than 3-bet because i don't believe my two assumptions.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

His low AF + high WTSD means im strongly debating between a 3-bet and a call.. but would lean toward a call.

If his AF was any higher, I insta 3-bet...(And this is to the first poll)

Re: MORE POLLS
 

We have to be able to value bet thin, but if we call all reraises our strategy defeats itself. 3betting QQ we are just asking villain to play worse than we do. He is obviously value betting thin on the end with anything but a T, and should be able to release. If we know that he is both good/aggressive enough to value bet light but bad/loose enough to call reraises anyway then fine. But that strikes me as an odd combination.

Nevertheless these games are obviously looser and more aggo than I am used to so my experience is not applicable.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

if the guy is competent at all, why would he now decide to raise 77-99? if a player wanted to put in more bets than call/call/call, why would he wait until the 3-bettor's range is narrowed strongly toward overpairs? it makes no sense at all.

some people are saying "he might have JJ." oh, really? so he just called preflop, got a great flop/turn and just called?

people are saying "he didn't raise flop so he doesn't have Tx." hahaha. he's a (likely multi-tabling) tag 2 off the button and T9s/JT/QT/KT very often just call every street postflop. these hands should really not be discounted much at all based on the flop and turn. and then when he raises the river, bayes it up sir.

waiting to raise the river with 77-99/JJ here is amazingly uncommon. please show me a hand where a guy with reasonable stats did something like that. i doubt you remember one you played recently, because it doesn't happen. however, i bet you can remember a guy calling you down with JT flop+turn+river (river blank) in this hand when you have 99 in the SB. i can't believe you people.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

[ QUOTE ]
if the guy is competent at all, why would he now decide to raise 77-99? if a player wanted to put in more bets than call/call/call, why would he wait until the 3-bettor's range is narrowed strongly toward overpairs? it makes no sense at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

The I-need-to-raise-somewhere-but-can't-fold-to-a-turn-3bet line?

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

[ QUOTE ]
The I-need-to-raise-somewhere-but-can't-fold-to-a-turn-3bet-so-I'll-raise-without-an-edge line?

[/ QUOTE ]

i like this line and use it often.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

[ QUOTE ]
some people are saying "he might have JJ." oh, really? so he just called preflop, got a great flop/turn and just called?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. I didnt mean there a realistic chance of him JJ. I listed it because I meant "All PP that are under QQ and didnt flop a set." I jsut put that as part of other hands that might do this becuase there is always the off chance someone does something REALLY stupid. We've all seen someone play a over pair completly moronic once.

But how often does he show up with a T here? He should be playing a T almost exactly like he plays JJ, but we're supposed to beleive he rivered trips?

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

[ QUOTE ]
He should be playing a T almost exactly like he plays JJ, but we're supposed to beleive he rivered trips?


[/ QUOTE ]
preflop dude, c'mon.

also you're acting like i'm suggesting folding in the first poll. i'm not. my issue is with anyone saying "easy 3-bet" or "insta 3-bet" with such small qualifiers as "if his AF were higher," "if he were a Party regular," or "but you guys know this limit better." this stuff just rubs my anus the wrong way.

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

lol. Honestly, I'd mean a realistic chance of JJ and havent argued that it wa a likely holding. I list all mid PP's not including the T. If it makes that big a deal I'll edit it out.

I think its just as unlikely he plays a T like this though as you think he plays JJ

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

[ QUOTE ]
also you're acting like i'm suggesting folding in the first poll. i'm not. my issue is with anyone saying "easy 3-bet" or "insta 3-bet." these comments bug me because i feel like they aren't serious but are saying these things seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

?? Not at all ?? I dont even remember disagreeing with anything you said. I explained my inclusion of JJ and gave a possible answer to one of your Q's

Re: What are you more likely to do? *Poll*
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think its just as unlikely he plays a T like this though as you think he plays JJ

[/ QUOTE ]
and i think this isn't even close to being true. i expect JJ to play this way almost never (every street), and i expect to see a ten play this way very often. i play a ten this way very often, in fact, and i know several other players who do the same. i just tried to find a thread in which an EP player raises and is reraised by a blind. he proceeds to flop top pair TENS, he raises the flop and calls down the 3-bet. i couldn't find the thread, but i remember the discussion.

can you guess the consensus?

"call all three streets. why are you raising?"