Four Winds 200NL Hand #2
 

Intro and Hand #1

This hand takes place less than an orbit after Hand #1. In the meantime, "Hector" has doubled up after limping in with 43s, getting a free look at the turn after a T82 flop checkaround, semibluffing all his chips on the turn 5 and getting called by a slowplayed T8, and hitting an A for a runner-runner wheel. So he's got about $120 now, and I have him covered.

Live 1/2 NL

I have AQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] second to act. Hector raises to $10 UTG, I call, everyone else folds.

Flop: ($23) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hector bets $17, I call.

Turn: ($57) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hector bets $17 again, I call.

River: ($91) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hector bets $36, I call.

Showdown: ($163)
Hector has 66, MHIG.


KEY DECISION POINTS:
1. Preflop coldcall. I have little to no respect for Hector's raising range here, though for some reason the rest of the table does, I guess assuming that because he limps in with junk, when he raises he's really got something. I gave serious thought to reraising him here. Too aggressive against him? Or, perhaps more importantly, am I in too poor position to be committing a lot of money preflop to AQs?

2. Flop call. In limit, this is an easy raise. Against most of his range, if I'm not ahead outright, I'm a statistical favorite with two overs and a flush draw. Is raising here, either as a semibluff or a value play, a viable option?

3. River call. I'm not going to pretend this was anything other than an acute case of MUBS on my part. I got freaked out by the sudden switch from big (for me) preflop raise and healthy-sized flop c-bet to much smaller bets relative to the pot size after the turn paired the board. How smart would getting the rest of his chips in on the river be after I've hit my non-nut nut flush? On the one hand, he bet about half of his remaining stack on the river, meaning even if I shove and he calls with a boat, then I didn't cost myself too much. On the other hand, that really looks like he's begging to be shoved into, or maybe that's 'cause I'm a weak-tight weenie in NL ring and ZOMG $36 IS LIKE SIX BIG BETS AT 3/6 LIMIT I DON'T WANT TO LOSE THAT MUCH.

I expect more flaming now. Bring it.

Re: Four Winds 200NL Hand #2
 

oh man, put your stack in on that flop Michael!

Re: Four Winds 200NL Hand #2
 

grunch

why did you post results, noobtard? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

i have found that i overvalue AQ in nl games, so coldcalling feels right to me in position. villain is "fast and loose", but unless he's going to get all his chips in with AJ, you aren't that far ahead of much of his range. with a big suited A, we don't mind a multiway pot, so i'm happy to call and see what happens.

against an opponent who can fold, the flop is obviously a great place for a semibluff raise. against this guy, i'm not so sure. that flop is pretty junky, though, so raising and hoping to win right away can't be that bad. if you make a psb (using james's formula that's 17*3 + 23 = $76), he has about $20 left, so you may as well shove.

as played, you're getting odds to draw on the turn. his bet is a little weird, but it's at *least* as likely to be a crappy hand as it is to be a tricky bet/3bet. with a better postflop read, you might go ahead and shove here since villain looks weak and that turn card isn't scary for you but it is scary for him.

and having gotten to the river this way, i shove and hope he has enough to call.

Re: Four Winds 200NL Hand #2
 

[ QUOTE ]
oh man, put your stack in on that flop Michael!

[/ QUOTE ]
'Cause we're past the commitment threshold? Semibluff? Value?

Re: Four Winds 200NL Hand #2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oh man, put your stack in on that flop Michael!

[/ QUOTE ]
'Cause we're past the commitment threshold? Semibluff? Value?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold Equity + 2-street Hand Equity > 1-street Hand Equity. Push.

Re: Four Winds 200NL Hand #2
 

Yeah, plus a PSR is not that much smaller than a push. You're likely to be facing him being all in at one point or another in this hand if he has anything, so you're better off putting him in, seeing if he'll fold and not usually being all that sad if he calls, than you will calling and then calling a much larger bet on the turn.