50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

Villain is ChristopherT, who I have at about 16/9/2.5 over a small 185 hand sample. Is 3betting this type of player profitable with AQo?

How's my line?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $50
UTG: $29.50
UTG+1: $87.80
MP1: $45.10
MP2: $59.30
CO: $30.25
BTN: $61.85
Hero (SB): $48.15

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls $5

Flop: ($14.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $11.50</font>, MP1 calls $11.50

<font color="blue">I assume this is a standard c-bet after 3betting preflop. I think his 3bet calling range is probably TT+/AK. By betting, I think I can get TT/AK and maybe JJ to fold, is that enough incentive to bet here?</font>

Turn: ($37.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

<font color="blue">He called my flop bet, so I figure he has QQ+ and he isn't going to get away from it. I'm check/folding the turn and river here... </font>

River: ($37.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, planning to fold to a bet.

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

Against this villian, I'd be shocked if he called the 3-bet with TT/JJ and just folded to a c-bet on this flop. He knows that he's not getting odds to hit the set and if he's just folding to your c-bet on this type of flop--then it's just burning money, which he isn't.

I think you have to be prepared to double barrel here if you are betting the flop.

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

If you have no history of 3-betting him then i like to shove this turn. I think river shove gets called more.

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Against this villian, I'd be shocked if he called the 3-bet with TT/JJ and just folded to a c-bet on this flop. He knows that he's not getting odds to hit the set and if he's just folding to your c-bet on this type of flop--then it's just burning money, which he isn't.

I think you have to be prepared to double barrel here if you are betting the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. I guess if he isn't calling a 3bet with TT/JJ, that makes my cbet less effective against a range of QQ+/AK. Is this one of those rare instances I should check the flop after 3betting? It seems like I have two legit options: 1) C/F 2)Double-barreling.

Against this villian, double-barreling seems like it is suicide since I'm getting called by QQ+ everytime.

Check/fold to save $ against a range that has me crushed?

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

I'm not saying he won't call with TT/JJ/other hand b/c quite frankly, he will--at least against me. So, his range isn't QQ+/AK.

However, he's got position on you and I'd guess has you on a reasonable range w/o a 3-betting light history (which this is a terrible spot for, so I'd expect you to have goods here most of the time). By flat calling your c-bet, he certainly puts you in a difficult spot on the turn with anything except KK/AA.

He well could have AA here too and is just letting you hang yourself. However, I think he'll fold JJ/QQ to a double.

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

Either check/fold the flop or shove the turn.

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

3 betting him is fine here. I think that the flop is probably a c/f because he doesn't call 3 bets light or 3 bet light IME of a couple thousand hands. Obviously you couldn't have known this in the hand so I probably c/f anyways because this is the type of board in which you can get TT/JJ to fold with two barrels but it's often not worth it for the times he will call those hands and times he has QQ+. AK is a part of his range and AQ is a very small part of his range.

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

[ QUOTE ]
3 betting him is fine here. I think that the flop is probably a c/f because he doesn't call 3 bets light or 3 bet light IME of a couple thousand hands. Obviously you couldn't have known this in the hand so I probably c/f anyways because this is the type of board in which you can get TT/JJ to fold with two barrels but it's often not worth it for the times he will call those hands and times he has QQ+. AK is a part of his range and AQ is a very small part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I thought after the hand.

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Either check/fold the flop or shove the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]Against an opponent with these stats (which is the type of opponent I will most often 3bet light with AQ), how often do you take the c/f vs double barrel line?

I usually c/f these flops against this type of opponent, however I fear that I am missing a little bit of value by never taking the bet/shove line. Do you need some evidence that villain can fold an overpair before you do this, or is it something you can infer based on PF stats?

A c-bet often seems to take down pots with a c-bet at this level; however, I usually like to have an A/K/Q on the board so I can at least rep something reasonable (and make my opponent feel good about the fold).

Re: 50NL: 3bettiing AQo in the SB vs. a raise from MP
 

[ QUOTE ]
A c-bet often seems to take down pots with a c-bet at this level

[/ QUOTE ]
This is where pre-flop stats are very imporant. If someone has reasonable TAG stats, they are usually calling your 3-bet with only AK and good pairs. On a low flop, they are not folding most of their range (overpairs).

However, if someone has loose stats like 30/10 or whatever, then you DO have a lot of FE on low flops because often they won't have a pair since they're calling 3-bets with a wider range.