Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

After a bunch of hands, the blue line will look like it follows the green just because the graph is losing detail in the pixels.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1

Looking at mine in the LC thread with only <300, it's apparent.

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

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I hope to come back to this topic in a few hours, but I'll point out that I have spoken privately with a few players I respect, and none of us have, over any large sample-size, kept our non-showdown winnings positive.

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checked my pm box. it's empty [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

I'm -7.5 won w/o showdown

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

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I just ran my hands since august, and I'm running at -3bb/100 in nonSD pots, which seems extreme... I def. didn't think it was that bad.

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Is there anyway to fix this or increase it without also lowering winrate?

Besides getting rid of marginal hands preflop in raised pots, the only thing I can immediately think of is to eliminate calling big turn bets. It's pretty easy to give up on a 8 card draw on the turn, but what about 12-15? In theory this is EV neutral but it will decrease the winrate of nonSD hands.

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

I experimented earlier in the fall with making a serious effort not to play big pots where I wasn't the aggressor, which seemed to increase my nonSD w/r, but the sample size wasn't great. It did, however, reopen my eyes to the importance of putting in the last raise.

The risk of this strategy, I found, was that I would be tempted to bet large with poor hands, hoping that the FE would do more good for my non-SD winrate then the getting it in poorly would do harm to my SD winrate. So sort of an iffy tactic, generally.

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

The reason that almost everyone loses money in non-showdown pots is that it includes pots where other people go to showdown after you folded. That means there's an implicit bias against you and you'd really have to be doing much, much better than average to make money in that setting. The only way you should be expected to make money in non-showdown pots is if you're looking only at hands played heads-up.

With all that said, I've got a 20K hand sample where I have been just above breakeven lately, and it's because I've been playing low stakes with a bunch of players that are really easy to run over. You have to be against players with huge leaks to actually make money w/no showdown when multiway pots are included though.

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

I suspect your $ won in non-showdown pots is pretty closely tied to your won $ when saw flop % in PT.

So try to win a lot of pots! This will result in you picking up a lot of $ without going to showdown. When you do make it to showdown, you'll be less likely to have the best hand and will loose $ there.

Basically, if you stop relying on your cards to win $ your $ won w/o showdown will increase.

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

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The reason that almost everyone loses money in non-showdown pots is that it includes pots where other people go to showdown after you folded. That means there's an implicit bias against you and you'd really have to be doing much, much better than average to make money in that setting. The only way you should be expected to make money in non-showdown pots is if you're looking only at hands played heads-up.

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yes I figured a graph like this was super standard for anything other than heads up, and your results were just a freak outlier. I guess I could be wrong though and there are many others who win w/o showdown 3+ handed.

for comparison here's my graph of 3 handed + over the same period (almost all with between 3-6 players).

http://i52.photobucket.com/albums/g3...er/3ormore.jpg

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

Yeah, I'm at an embarrassing -17.2ptbb/100 for my last 8474 hands (total winnings at -2.4ptbb/100). I do kind of think the bulk of it is calling way too thin against pf raises.

I've been frustrated at PLO25, trying to build a roll so I can move up, so, I've been taking a lot of -ev positions preflop going after implied odds mirages. That, along with adjusting to 6max and tilting too much, is probably where my money goes in non-showdown pots.

Man, if I could have just shaved 2.5 from the red Won W/O Showdown, I'd be a winner. What is that, $1.25/100? So, if I would have just cut down on one -ev pf call?

That has been the way I've been trying to adjust recently: instead of trying to maximize winnings (I'm usually good at winning as much as possible on a hand), I've been trying to minimize my losses better, especially in calling preflop.

Re: Flat PokerEV Greenline and Raised Redline
 

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Interesting, so I guess you are saying that playing a winning style of PLO* (6max or full) will end up with losing money at non-showdowns and ergo money is one by forcing/creating/being part of showdowns. And it is in those showdowns where you will win.

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This "ergo" doesn't really follow. Most players, whether good or bad, win money in their shown down hands and lose money in their non-shown down hands. You win money in the long run by winning more in the former and losing less in the latter than the other guy.