A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

10k/20k, 2500 ante, 23 players left. This is at the end of my 2nd orbit at the table and I haven't seen UTG play a hand. I am chipleader with my 870k stack and I think second is around 800k and a bunch of people in the 400-600 range.

Seat 1: hAAydon (533,482)
Seat 2: iMsoLucky0 (867,036)
Seat 3: parisxcon (527,930)
Seat 5: Badminton Icon (206,652)
Seat 6: Nelly Furtado (394,771)
Seat 7: ronniehood (189,352)
Seat 8: stevie444 (220,752)
Seat 9: BthephenomP (279,598)

Badminton Icon posts the small blind of 10,000
Nelly Furtado posts the big blind of 20,000

The button is in seat #3

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to iMsoLucky0 [8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]

ronniehood has 15 seconds left to act
<font color="red"> ronniehood raises to 60,000</font>
stevie444 folds
BthephenomP folds
hAAydon folds
<font color="red"> iMsoLucky0... </font>

Call, raise, fold?


10 minutes later, pretty much the same position as the first hand. I think I was still chipleader, but doesn't matter much.

I had learned a little while before this hand that villian is a pocketfiver and probably has some clue as to how to play tournaments. He lost a big chunk of his stack a little earlier to me when I opened UTG+1 to 42k (8/16k), got a caller, he squeezed from the big blind to 140k with 300 behind and folded to my shove. Other than that, no real reads.

Seat 1: hAAydon (595,982)
Seat 2: iMsoLucky0 (928,424)
Seat 3: parisxcon (481,542)
Seat 5: Badminton Icon (179,152)
Seat 6: Nelly Furtado (217,271)
Seat 7: ronniehood (361,852)
Seat 8: stevie444 (223,252)
Seat 9: BthephenomP (232,098)

parisxcon posts the small blind of 10,000
Badminton Icon posts the big blind of 20,000

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to iMsoLucky0 [5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]

Nelly Furtado folds
ronniehood folds
stevie444 folds
<font color="red">BthephenomP raises to 229,598, and is all in</font>
hAAydon folds

<font color="red"> iMsoLucky0... </font>

Shove or fold? (shoving &gt; calling for obv reasons)

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

fold shove

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

1 is a fold i think
2 meh, marginal but i think i reshove though i think its really close and barely cEV+

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

1.

[ QUOTE ]
This is at the end of my 2nd orbit at the table and I haven't seen UTG play a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he folded in obv steal spots with his short stack I probably fold here as he was waiting for a premium. Raising less than all in UTG with less than 10BB's puts you a dog to the range. Its close because he doesn't hurt you that much if you lose, but I see no reason to get involved.

2.

I think that often this is a hand like A9o or a smallish pair. He's really stealing with a little value, but not strong enough to really want a re-raise by opening smaller. I think as low as 88 are turbo jams, but 55 doesn't dominate anything he does this with except a couple of low pairs which isn't enough of his range to feel great about pushing here.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

I fold both. 2 is close but p5ers are generally nits, and given it's probably close vs just him, I fold with 2 still to act.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

I fold both hands. Why play when you don't have FE?

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

I fold both also although I'd call the second one closing the action.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,434,896,288 games 0.002 secs 1,217,448,144,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.265% 47.68% 00.58% 1161014436 14186478.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 51.735% 51.15% 00.58% 1245508896 14186478.00 { KK-22, A5s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KTo+ }

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

we need like 45% to breakeven, and that range is about as worse as we can expect. i doubt KK gets open shoved like that.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

steve hit the nail on the head for the reasons why i believe we need to fold both hands. Think the summation is perfect

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

Isn't everyone on here always criticizing p5ers as overaggro monkeys, but now they are nits? And we don't really have to worry that much about someone picking up a hand to call us that much. It's less than 10%.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't everyone on here always criticizing p5ers as overaggro monkeys, but now they are nits? And we don't really have to worry that much about someone picking up a hand to call us that much. It's less than 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience a few of the top ranked p5ers are crazy but your average p5er plays like 9/7 and does things like squeeze to 140k with 300k behind with AQ to find out where he's at.

Steve

P.S. If timex is reading 2p2 right now, I put the over/under on him fyp-ing my post to read AK at like 18 seconds.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

In the first hand I folded because as woodguy said

[ QUOTE ]
Raising less than all in UTG with less than 10BB's puts you a dog to the range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is the key to the hand. If he just open shoves UTG I'd be more likely to call, but still unsure because I hadn't seen him play any pots.


I shoved the second hand because I felt by shoving he removed most big pairs from his range. People almost never shove AA or KK here and it seems very rare that they shove QQ or JJ too. I'm most scared of 66-99, but he has some ace or two big cards much more often. I'm not worried about the blinds picking up a hand too much, and even if I lose the hand I still cover the table (which is also true of the first hand, I just think the %s and advantages of winning the pot are different). Also, I definitely don't think p5ers are nits.


I do think the second hand is much closer than the first after looking at them though. Stack considerations definitely play a major part in both decisions though. In the second hand we go to 1.2 mil as opposed to 1.1 in the first and those extra 100k chips are very valuable at this point.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

jordan,

if he'd pushed previously a few times to increase his stack to the point it's at, i would include aa and kk in his pushing range.

i would probably fold both.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

I fold both.

Hand 1 is IMO even more clear as people who 3X under a 10 BB stack are almost always trying to get creative with a big hand despite that move not possibly being creative anymore.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

[ QUOTE ]

jordan,

if he'd pushed previously a few times to increase his stack to the point it's at, i would include aa and kk in his pushing range.

i would probably fold both.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had just gotten that short within the last 5-10 hands, not sure of the specifics, but I still doubt he is doing that with AA/KK.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

ya put me in the fold both camp as well, steve and bonds reasoning are both good.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

jordan,

if he'd pushed previously a few times to increase his stack to the point it's at, i would include aa and kk in his pushing range.

i would probably fold both.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had just gotten that short within the last 5-10 hands, not sure of the specifics, but I still doubt he is doing that with AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, if he'd just gotten short, i agree that it makes aa/kk unlikely.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

hand 1 is a fold but is a reship if he had open shoved.

hand 2 is a marginal shove. you are ahead of his range with dead money. it is close but you definitely have more than the 45% that you need to be +cEV

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

On the point of Hand 1 being a fold. If we were Villain in this spot, and have a shove-worthy hand, I assume it's better to 3BB it instead of shove? Or against the average remaining players, is a shove still more effective?

I've been experimenting with the 3BB raise when less than 10BBs and it's been pretty successful so far. I even occasionally get a guy to flat call and then fold to a flop shove.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

fold and fold, for the reason adanthar gave.

Mebbe p5ers are just nits when compared to stevepa

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

[ QUOTE ]

I shoved the second hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Curious as to what he had sir.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold both also although I'd call the second one closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was thinking the exact same thing

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

i fold the first and shove the second, he's not gonna open fold a pair, or A2 right?

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

[ QUOTE ]
i fold the first and shove the second, he's not gonna open fold a pair, or A2 right?

[/ QUOTE ]

finally someone else agrees with me. I can see him folding A2 but not a whole lot more Axs. We're gonna have at least 48% equity here, and I don't think the two people behind us who are only going to come in with like JJ+,AK are enough to pass up this edge.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

Hand 1 is a pretty standard fold as most everyone aggrees, not gonna go into that.

Hand 2 is close when it comes to cEV but I don't think it's even close when you consider it's metagame relevance. I'd shove 55 here even if i thought it was slightly -cEV because it will give you the perfect image to rape the table. People will see that he is not scared to put chips in the pot and play tighter against him, especially with the amount of $ on the line.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

I'd fold the first one. I think the 2nd one could go either way, I'd base it on a lot of things, but I wouldn't highly criticize either choice. Being the chip leader, you have a lot of power that you risk giving away for a relatively small edge at best.

So yeah I'd probably fold hand 2 too, although suspect it may be slightly +Cev

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

In hand 2 he ended up having AQo and I held.

I don't think we give up too much power in the 2nd hand by losing, and I think the power we gain by winning is much more valuable. We'll still have 700k and have the table covered if we lose either of these pots, and with the second being so close to neutral cEV, it's just a spot I like to gamble to try and take control. With only 23 players left and the blinds getting up there, I think we've got to be taking any edge possible, and gambling with our extra chips on neutral cEV spots to try and build up enough to WIN the tournament. Down to almost 2 tables, we can't expect to get many more spots to get our chips in good, or decent, and need to take every chance I think. With a 1.2 million stack we've got a LOT of room to play, and the 700k stack really isn't much different than 900k imo.

The difference in the first hand is we don't get enough chips if we win, and I think we are actually well behind his range.

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

[ QUOTE ]
In hand 2 he ended up having AQo and I held.

I don't think we give up too much power in the 2nd hand by losing, and I think the power we gain by winning is much more valuable. We'll still have 700k and have the table covered if we lose either of these pots, and with the second being so close to neutral cEV, it's just a spot I like to gamble to try and take control. With only 23 players left and the blinds getting up there, I think we've got to be taking any edge possible, and gambling with our extra chips on neutral cEV spots to try and build up enough to WIN the tournament. Down to almost 2 tables, we can't expect to get many more spots to get our chips in good, or decent, and need to take every chance I think. With a 1.2 million stack we've got a LOT of room to play, and the 700k stack really isn't much different than 900k imo.

The difference in the first hand is we don't get enough chips if we win, and I think we are actually well behind his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

AMEN

Re: A couple of preflop decisions late in the FTP 500k.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think we've got to be taking any edge possible, and gambling with our extra chips on neutral cEV spots to try and build up enough to WIN the tournament. Down to almost 2 tables, we can't expect to get many more spots to get our chips in good, or decent, and need to take every chance I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very well put sir.