Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

according to the math here, it's Ohio State and LSU as the two leaders

Of course, Ohio State is the only team that outperformed what one would expect from a #2 team. Every other team underperformed.

+/- compared to a #2
Ohio State +0.212W 0.899p
LSU -0.259W 0.866p
USC -0.263W 0.855p
Georgia -0.288W 0.857p
V Tech -0.577W 0.891p
Oklahoma -0.628W 0.895p

that looks at only wins and losses directly
of course, I'd think margin of victory favors Ohio St and LSU even more

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

For the first time in the history of the BCS, I think we have a season where a four team "and one" playoff would still exclude someone with a truly legitimate claim to the national title. In alphabetical order the following seven teams all have at least a valid argument for why they deserve a shot: Georgia, Kansas, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, USC, and Virginia Tech. If they manage to come back and beat Washington, Hawaii also has a vaguely valid argument, even though they clearly aren't anywhere near being in the same league as the other seven. I'd love to see a playoff among those eight teams this year, but this year is an exception and I still think "and one" is the best system. It's not the system we have, though, so on to what I think will ACTUALLY happen (assuming Hawaii loses tonight).

BCSCG: Ohio State vs. LSU
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Illinois
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia

Within the context of the current system that seems most likely to me, but I expect a lot of shuffling of ballots this week and UGA/LSU/KU/VT were all VERY close in the standings last week, enough that any of them could potentially leapfrog to #2. It will be close.

Oh yeah, and what I think *should* happen, within the context of the current system, is OSU vs. Oregon with Dixon magically healed. Seriously, don't try to make me pick between LSU, Georgia, and Kansas. Those are my top three contenders but I think it's WAY too close to call without analyzing it much more closely than I have the brain capacity to do so right now.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Record against current top 25 teams:

OSU 1-1 (only loss)
Kansas 0-1 (only loss)
USC 1-1 (one other loss)
Georgia 1-1 (one other loss)
VT 3-2 (no other losses)
LSU 3-0 (two other losses)
Oklahoma 3-0 (two other losses)

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
according to the math here, it's Ohio State and LSU as the two leaders

Of course, Ohio State is the only team that outperformed what one would expect from a #2 team. Every other team underperformed.

+/- compared to a #2
Ohio State +0.212W 0.899p
LSU -0.259W 0.866p
USC -0.263W 0.855p
Georgia -0.288W 0.857p
V Tech -0.577W 0.891p
Oklahoma -0.628W 0.895p

that looks at only wins and losses directly
of course, I'd think margin of victory favors Ohio St and LSU even more

[/ QUOTE ]
I love your blog, but can you include Kansas please? Also, the difference between -.259 and -.288 is small enough that while I think your numbers are enough to eliminate VT and Oklahoma from contention, I think you need to turn to other methods to differentiate between LSU, USC, and Georgia.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Source

[ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl officials have the option to choose among several teams, but Big Ten sources indicated they have been assured that Illinois will be selected today if Ohio State moves up and Illinois is in the BCS pool

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Delaney flexing his muscles

for Illinois?

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Delaney flexing his muscles

for Illinois?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bros before hos.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

lsu vs ohio state is what it should be, even if Georgia is playing better right now - how can you have a team play for the title if they didnt even win their division? If it is Va Tech i would be mad if i was a LSU fan, they beat VA tech 44-7 or whatever it was in week 2.

im rooting for Georgia, that would really put a turd in the bcs punch bowl

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Source

[ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl officials have the option to choose among several teams, but Big Ten sources indicated they have been assured that Illinois will be selected today if Ohio State moves up and Illinois is in the BCS pool

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this Gould guy usually on the mark? That's pretty big what he said there.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Yep... Gould is pretty good and that is a major paper