How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
Hello,
after strings of 1-2000 games going up in ROI, I always experience a period really hard to deal with. Time ago I wrote a program, that I called 'luckometer' to just check difference from won chips and EV in preflop allins 1v1. I found that in the long run difference should tend to 0. However, at a certain point , bad luck seem unstoppable. I give an example with some numbers (from today).. 143 25$+2$ sit & go played I was 352 times allin preflop (1v1 showdown). I was 51.42% on edge vs my opponent's hand. My expected value was 600,087 chips. I extracted from pots just 483,088 chips. Difference is 24.22% negative, 116,999 chips were lost in bad luck.. I wrote a simulator too that repeat the games flip and, playing 352 allins 200 times it never had a so negative result. Is there anyone with a good math/statistic background that can help me to calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ? Meanwhile I will simulate a long run with the simulator to see how many times 'this may happen' in an empiric way Thanks SJ |
Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
fold preflop
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Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
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calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ? [/ QUOTE ] 50:50, either you run that bad or you dont. |
Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
this post is actually pretty interesting. how many SD's is he off?
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Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
to answer your question:
http://i216.photobucket.com/albums/c...splayGraph.png |
Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
Jesus, I have never seen a losing player complain as much as you. If your down after the 15k games you've played for the love of God, your a LOSING player. And I use to play with you all the time and you don't know what's going on.
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Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
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to answer your question: http://i216.photobucket.com/albums/c...splayGraph.png [/ QUOTE ] I don't think that's running bad |
Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
[ QUOTE ]
this post is actually pretty interesting. how many SD's is he off? [/ QUOTE ] What's SD ? |
Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, I have never seen a losing player complain as much as you. If your down after the 15k games you've played for the love of God, your a LOSING player. And I use to play with you all the time and you don't know what's going on. [/ QUOTE ] I think you never lost 120K chips more than expected in 300 allins. However, I'm asking a question on some NUMBERS. Really don't understand why you have to insult this way. It's really sad. Good luck |
Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
All SNGs were played post-legislation, so that's not it:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...ld/wtfgraf.jpg |
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