Non-nut flush on paired board vs. weak player
 

Is shoving in this spot +EV? Villain runs at 36%/12%/1.8, folds to CBet:56% calls CBet:34% raises CBet:12%.

Notes on villain:
Opened in MP w/ 99, called RR IP, min-raised CBet on K-9-8 flop.
Open-limp OTB w/ KsK, flatcalled SB's lead on Js-8s-6 flop, flatcalled 4 turn, minraised 4 river.
Opened in MP w/ KTo, committing min-CR instead of CBet on 2s-T-Js flop in 5-way pot! LOL (called all-in 3bet)


Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $1,027
CO: $403.40
BTN: $267
SB: $1,571
BB: $2,505.50

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $35</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $25

Flop: ($75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $60</font>, BB calls $60

Turn: ($195) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [ 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $140</font>, BB calls $140

River: ($475) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [ 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $400</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $792 and is All-In?</font>

Re: Non-nut flush on paired board vs. weak player
 

i think i'd fold the river. i don't think he is doing this for straight value with many hands worse than yours (the Ad betting this much is pretty much ridiculous), and given he cc out of the bb against an utg raise he is pretty likely to have random low pocket pairs and higher suited cards than yours a lot of the time.