Risking your stack with a small edge.
 

Hi. Had a hand that I needed some help on. I have played limit for eight months before deciding to try NL earlier this month. I have only 1300 hands at NL, so still quite new.

Villian in this hand is LAG. Playing 70% of his hands. In the 2 orbits since I sat down he has busted after moving in with a gutshot + overs vs a set, rebought and ran his stack to 26$ with some good hands and big overbets chasing people out of pots, then fell down to around 11$ with other crazy plays.

It's Pacific so have to enter the hand manually.

Pacific Poker 0.05/0.10 blinds no limit.

Stacks: Hero $9.75 Villian $11.6

Hero is MP1 with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG calls .10, 1 fold, Hero raises to .40, 2 folds, sb folds, Villian calls in bb, UTG calls.

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villian bets $11.20(all-in), UTG folds, Hero?

Less than 1% chance of a flopped flush so my read was a high club. I figure the flush draw with an overcard to my QQ, so I have to dodge about 12 outs twice.

Call as a slight favorite or fold and wait for a better spot? Thanks for any replies.

Re: Risking your stack with a small edge.
 

I call. I'm here to make +ev decisions not to reduce variance

Re: Risking your stack with a small edge.
 

Easy call

Re: Risking your stack with a small edge.
 

Did someone mention pushing small edges?

Paging this guy:

http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b1...321/PoBoy1.gif

He'll know what to do.

Re: Risking your stack with a small edge.
 

I'd call him. From what you have said, he's pretty aggressive, to the point of playing recklessly. He could have flopped the flush, but then it would seem more likely that he would have made a smaller bet, trying to get you to call. He could very well just have 2 overcards, one of which may, or may not be a club. You are probably ahead right now, and have a chance to double up with the % in your favor. Now, if it were a tourney, I might wait for a better spot, but in a ring game, I say do it. The fact that he just busted and rebought could also mean he's in a rush to get his $$ back, and might be even more reckless than usual. But remember, I suck, so don't listen to me.

Re: Risking your stack with a small edge.
 

I wouldn't consider being in this spot a small edge. Sure he may be on the draw and you're ~50/50 but he can also have 88-JJ and is donking it up like his image suggests. Call here everytime.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm here to make +ev decisions not to reduce variance


[/ QUOTE ]

If you're insufficiently bankrolled or prone to tilt it may be good to pass up small edges. I used to avoid these situations when i started but after getting used to the swings in NL you have to play these or you're leaving a lot of money on the table.

Re: Risking your stack with a small edge.
 

Actually, he's 4% to have a flush, not 1%.