Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

It's that time again. Monday Movies.

Lines up on Pinny.


Fri 12/15 Opening 3 day wknd box office for Charlotte's Web

Maximum Wager: 150.00 USD
09:00 AM 103 Over 23 million +142 Risk To Win
104 Under 23 million -158 Risk To Win
Eragon (must be released 12/15) Dec 15-18
Fri 12/15 Opening 3 day weekend box office for Eragon

Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
09:00 AM 201 Over 22 million -180 Risk To Win
202 Under 22 million +160 Risk To Win
The Pursuit of Happyness (m.b. rel 12/15)Dec 15-18
Fri 12/15 ening 3d wkd box office The Pursuit of Happyness

Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
09:00 AM 305 Over 19 million -133 Risk To Win
306 Under 19 million +117 Risk To Win


Unlike the crap we have been looking at the last couple weeks with movies doing under $10 or even $5 Mill for small lines and even smaller possibilities for errors in those lines we have 3 movies this week with lines around $20 Mill.

This is were we can make a bunch of money. Just have to identify the movie that will bomb or break out. Just like 2+2 was doing during the summer blockbusters.

What does everyone think about this weeks movies.

-Brendan

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

I'm all over the under for Pursuit, but it's dropped to -115. Damn!

DN

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

I am not sure about Pursuit, seems to have the most potential of the 3 to break out. Also a lot of TV spots and there is award buzz around it. The trailers have been well received too across the country. The line on it opened at $17, went to $18 and settled on $19 right now.

Will be interesting what its final theatre count will be. Could pick up a bunch like Apocalypto did last weekend.

-Brendan

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

Keep in mind that Oprah will be pimping up CW and that millions of women do whatever Oprah suggests they do.

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

I think Eragon looks really cool. In that spirit... anyone else like the under?

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

I like Charlotte's Web Under $23M a lot, even at -144. Haven't seen much in the way of marketing for this. I've got two little brothers who are in the movie's target demo (or close to it, at least), and they would have absolutely no interest in seeing this (assuming they've even heard about it).

I don't know about the other two, but I suspect there's value in Eragon Under $22M, +169. (Wouldn't like it at +100, though.)

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

My thoughts:

I'm all over Pursuit of Happiness OVER $18m (-160). It really wouldn't surprise me if this movie beat one of Eragon or CW. Furthermore, this movie (if I'm reading correctly) will open in more theaters than the other 2.

I expect Eragon to end up in the low 20s, so the only value there could be here is on the under. There's still a chance that this movie takes away the weekend, but I think people are overestimating its potential.

Charlotte's Web is a tough one and I'll probably stay away from it. While it could easily do middle to upper 20s, it wouldn't surprise me if this flops relative to expectations. I think the "Happy Feet effect" could keep it under 23. With the line at -160 though for the under, I can't see there being any huge value on this one.



Now, with all that said, fade my picks.

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

[ QUOTE ]
My thoughts:

I'm all over Pursuit of Happiness OVER $18m (-160). It really wouldn't surprise me if this movie beat one of Eragon or CW. Furthermore, this movie (if I'm reading correctly) will open in more theaters than the other 2.


[/ QUOTE ]

Mojo currently has ER @ 3000, CW @ 3000+, and PH @ 2500+ theatres. Are you getting conflicting info?

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

Posted on a movie forum (www.worldofkj.com):

[ QUOTE ]
MTC screen order, courtesy of notfabio:

The Pursuit of Happyness
Charlotte’s Web
Eragon
The Pursuit of Happyness (2nd screen)
The Holiday

[/ QUOTE ]

This was posted yesterday and could definitely be wrong. I would go with what you see at Mojo.

Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
 

How about Charlotte's Web AND Pursuit on the under for a parlay :-D?