FTP $750K in the money
 

Hello all..
So, yesterday I played in one of the FTP's $750k sunday tournaments. I did really well for the most part and end up finishing 11 out of 4025 players and cashed out almost $8k.

The following hand came up when we were down to 11 players. At this point I did not particularly know how the remaining players at the table played because I was moved from another table. All I could observe was that there were a lot of preflop open-shovings. So after folding a decent amount of hands, I took a shot with the below hand when it was checked to me.

FullTiltPoker Game #4300563546: $750,000 Guarantee (30799714), Table 77 - 25000/50000 Ante 6000 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:06:37 ET - 2007/11/26
Seat 1: ELIA (1,337,479)
Seat 2: tschueg (963,228)
Seat 3: Tim_Rantasha (1,043,819)
Seat 7: baykut (362,213)
Seat 8: ActionAaron (945,784)
ELIA antes 6,000
tschueg antes 6,000
Tim_Rantasha antes 6,000
baykut antes 6,000
ActionAaron antes 6,000
ELIA posts the small blind of 25,000
tschueg posts the big blind of 50,000
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to baykut [Td 2h]
Tim_Rantasha folds
baykut raises to 356,213, and is all in

When I did this play I was the 11th out of 11 players. So I thought I could not any longer fold my way into higher money places considering that my M was dropping rapidly with the relatively high antes and blinds.

Harrington says that if your M is 3 and no one has entered the pot yet and you think: 1) there is a 50% chance that your remaining opponents will fold to an all-in bet and 2) you are 2-1 dog to win if you are called then; you can move all-in with a positive expectation.

I pushed because I thought there was a greater chance than 50% that the big blind would fold. I think in this spot he might be willing to call with his top 15-25 percent hands and fold the rest. As far as being a 2-1 dog; if he were to call with AKo, I think I am getting the proper odds.

Considering what Harrington says and from your experience, how would you rate my play? Would you have waited for a better spot to take a stand?

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

I think this is borderline. If one of the big stacks hadnt already folded I would definitely wait a hand and push as UTG, the likely improvement in your hand equity outweighing a fold from an average stack. Plus it gives your shoving range a little more credibiity because theyve seen you fold with first in vig.

With one of the big stacks folding youve improved your chances of a push making it around considerably vs an UTG push. On balance I probably fold here because I like a hand to have something more than "two live cards" potential.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

standard

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

I think this is a bad play. You have one of the worst hands possible. t2s, 54o, Q2o, or T7o have a significantly higher win rate. With t2o, you are 27% against of top 20% hand. I would wait for a better hand UTG. If you don't get one, I don't know if I push T2o or whatever then. However, here why not wait for the chance that you get a better hand.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

betgo i doubt unknowns are calling well enough here to make shoving ATC not good. but i cud be wrong.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
betgo i doubt unknowns are calling well enough here to make shoving ATC not good. but i cud be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why not wait one more hand for a better hand? You can't get a significantly worse one.

Also, I am not sure going through the blinds is worse than shoving junk in early position. You may have a hand you can defend with in the blinds, and it will be an even easier shove shorter stack if you don't.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

I think it is pretty much mandatory to shove here, ur gonna pick up the blinds and ante about half the time if not more

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

i disagree with that play, i wouldve waited for one more hand.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

Closish and read/gameflow dependent, if people are good it is a bad shove.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

i prob wouldnt have gotten this short but thats neither here nor there. prob push next hand any 2.