Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

You can bet on Miami to NOT go 0-16 on 5Dimes at -700. I think this prop is massively EV.

Here's Miami's schedule. The lines for the first 3 games are already available. For all of the other lines, I have put my estimated lines in paranthesis. I have shaded the estimated lines against Miami in order to be conservative in my estimates. I actually think they should fare much better against NYJ (they should be favored), Bal (still over rated by the linesmakers) and Cin, but I want to err on the side of caution.

Buf +3
at Phi +9
at Pit +17
NYJ (0)
at Buf (+9)
Bal (+3)
at NE (+24)
Cin (+4)

Now let's put a conservative chance of winning to go along with those spreads.

Buf +3 42% (58% chance to lose)
at Phi +9 19% (81%)
at Pit +17 6% (94%)
NYJ (0) 50% (50%)
at Buf (+9) 19% (81%)
Bal (+3) 42% (58%)
at NE (+24) 2% (98%)
Cin (+4) 34% (66%)

This would give them only a 6.7% chance of losing every game.

Let's use more conservative numbers:

Buf +3 40% (60% chance to lose)
at Phi +9 17% (83%)
at Pit +17 5% (95%)
NYJ (+3) 40% (60%)
at Buf (+9) 17% (83%)
Bal (+3) 38% (62%)
at NE (+24) 2% (98%)
Cin (+6) 30% (70%)

Now we come up with 10.0% (90% to win the bet). At -700, we need to win 87.5% of the time. I think this bet will be a winner greater than 90% of the time (more like 94-96% IMO). -700 looks like a great price. The max bet is $1750 to win $250.

I also want to reiterate that I actually think they have a good chance of beating NYJ, Bal or Cin at home. They could be favored by as much as 3 over the Jets, and could easily be pick 'em against Bal or Cin. The estimates I gave are more in line with what I would expect from the linesmakers, and are also meant to be conservative.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

No -525 elsewhere

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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No -488 on WSEX

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FYP.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

thing85 - while that probably has okay value also it is a different prop in that it is for NO team to go 0-16....not just Miami.

So you are betting against BOTH MIA and STL in that one.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Oops, my bad. Thanks for pointing that out.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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No -488 on WSEX but I didn't read the prop right

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FMP.

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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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No -488 on WSEX but I didn't read the prop right because I suck at sports betting

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FMP.

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FMPFYP

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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thing85 - while that probably has okay value also it is a different prop in that it is for NO team to go 0-16....not just Miami.

So you are betting against BOTH MIA and STL in that one.

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Interestingly enough, this one may be a winner today...

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Sigh. I spent the first half wondering why I didn't bet more of my BR on this, and now I want to fast forward to Week 13.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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You can bet on Miami to NOT go 0-16 on 5Dimes at -700. I think this prop is massively EV.

Here's Miami's schedule. The lines for the first 3 games are already available. For all of the other lines, I have put my estimated lines in paranthesis. I have shaded the estimated lines against Miami in order to be conservative in my estimates. I actually think they should fare much better against NYJ (they should be favored), Bal (still over rated by the linesmakers) and Cin, but I want to err on the side of caution.

Buf +3
at Phi +9
at Pit +17
NYJ (0)
at Buf (+9)
Bal (+3)
at NE (+24)
Cin (+4)

Now let's put a conservative chance of winning to go along with those spreads.

Buf +3 42% (58% chance to lose)
at Phi +9 19% (81%)
at Pit +17 6% (94%)
NYJ (0) 50% (50%)
at Buf (+9) 19% (81%)
Bal (+3) 42% (58%)
at NE (+24) 2% (98%)
Cin (+4) 34% (66%)

This would give them only a 6.7% chance of losing every game.

Let's use more conservative numbers:

Buf +3 40% (60% chance to lose)
at Phi +9 17% (83%)
at Pit +17 5% (95%)
NYJ (+3) 40% (60%)
at Buf (+9) 17% (83%)
Bal (+3) 38% (62%)
at NE (+24) 2% (98%)
Cin (+6) 30% (70%)

Now we come up with 10.0% (90% to win the bet). At -700, we need to win 87.5% of the time. I think this bet will be a winner greater than 90% of the time (more like 94-96% IMO). -700 looks like a great price. The max bet is $1750 to win $250.

I also want to reiterate that I actually think they have a good chance of beating NYJ, Bal or Cin at home. They could be favored by as much as 3 over the Jets, and could easily be pick 'em against Bal or Cin. The estimates I gave are more in line with what I would expect from the linesmakers, and are also meant to be conservative.

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Here's an update on Miami's chances to win a game [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Lines are available for their next two games. The percentage is the chance they have of losing the game according to the spread.

NYJ -1 -114 47%
@ Buf +5.5 69%

I'll estimate for the other 3 games. These are conservative estimates.

Bal +3.5 64%
at NE 98%
Cin +6 72%

These are overly conservative estimates, and yet we still only get a 14.6% chance of Miami losing out. That's an 85.4% chance to win the bet.

5Dimes has the NO 0-16 team at -525 (was just -456 but I hit it). This means you would have to win at least 84% of the time to break even. Even with these very conservative estimates, the bet is +EV.

These are more like the lines I expect:

Bal +2 54%
at NE 97%
Cin +4 66%

That gives an 88.8% chance to win the bet (11.2% they lose out). Even if you disagree with these lines, there is basically no reasonable way to come up with -525 being negative EV. If it goes back to -456, even better.

If you are higher on Miami on any of these games (for example, you are betting on them this week or you realize how terrible Baltimore is), then this is a definite bet IMO.

Hopefully more sites will put up odds on this prop, since they all seem to do a pretty poor job.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Just for the irony i would love to see Miami beat NE to notch it's first win and conversly NE's first loss

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Miami to win 1 game out of 5...They should be giving you odds.

Seriously, this is a horrible bet. Yes they play three junk teams in a row, two with home field, which is why I would entertain like -300 or -400. Your best hope is NE clinches and decides not to go for a perfect season and plays their second string.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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Miami to win 1 game out of 5...They should be giving you odds.

Seriously, this is a horrible bet. Yes they play three junk teams in a row, two with home field, which is why I would entertain like -300 or -400. Your best hope is NE clinches and decides not to go for a perfect season and plays their second string.

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Uh, they're home against the Jets, Ravens and Bengals, so I'm not convinced you know what you're talking about. The Dolphins are huge underdogs to go winless.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Three junk teams in a row, AKA look at their next 3 games: Jets (Home), Buffalo (Away), Baltimore (Home)

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Further Cin is not a junk team and there must be validity to my point as I read the thread after I posted and now I'm seeing other posts indicating other sites offering far better prices.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Sorry, I thought you meant the teams they were playing had homefield. They're favorites against NY and most likely will be favorites against Baltimore.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

By fav you are obv ref to spreads < 3 pts because if Baltimore is getting 3 points against Miami, I am betting a large sum of money on the Ravens.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

And the first time Miami played the Jets when they had a RB and a QB, they lost by a field goal (they were trailing by 11 at end of 3rd)...Baltimore has a sick rush defense (just about all they have) and Miami loves to keep the ball out of Beck's hands. Baltimores offense is def improving since they got rid of the biggest jerkoff QB is history (I realize this is debatable). And then theres Buffalo which has similar strengths to Baltimore except Buffalo isnt playing for a draft pick so I doubt pride allows them to lose a home game to Miami in the final stretch.

In sum -700 is ridiculous, -300-400 is my sweet spot, -500 prob true odds.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Well if we agree that Miami is AT LEAST 50% to beat the Ravens and Jets, then that's 25% right there. That means they have to go 0-3 at the Bills and Pats, and home against the Bengals. For fun, we'll say the Pats game is an automatic loss. So they have to lose to both the Bills and Bengals >50% of the time for the -700 to be breakeven. Let's also say for the sake of argument that they are as likely to win either game. (This is a complete stretch since Cinci isn't that much better than Buffalo, but whatever). So they need to lose each game 70% of the time for your argument to work. Frankly, I don't think they lose either of these games 70% of the time.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Whoops, I was using the -700 for my argument, the numbers for the -500 that you claim is true odds are even more in my favor. They now have to lose the games against the Bills and Bengals 81% of the time each. There's no way they are even close to >81% to lose at Buffalo and home against the Bengals.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?

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Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. How is it a team as atrocious as SF (much much worse than Miami), has 3 wins, and the Dolphins none? Luck. FO did an interesting article on Miami, and how unlucky they've been this season. 6 games by a FG, and they've had the 5th hardest schedule so far this season. This team is certainly worse without Brown, Green or Chambers, but they're not THAT bad.

here's the article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3124222

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

your own article invalidates your argument. Since 1943, 18 teams have started out 0-11. assume 25 teams per year over 60 = 1500 seasons....that equates to a 1.2% chance NOT a 0.1% chance, about 12x difference...obv there are some flaws with this but not enough to justify a 1/1000 chance of Miami being where it is.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

I don't understand what you're saying. How on earth does history show that Miami isn't running god awful?

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening

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Because Miami is significantly better than your average 0-11 team.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

And anyways, I have no idea what the odds of Miami being 0-11 is. It was your number and I was just saying that yes, Miami has run real bad, to an extent we haven't seen before. It might be 1/1000, it might be 1/500, it might be 1/3000. I haven't run any numbers yet.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Wow.

I'm sorry to be rude, but through sheer cluelessness you have really muddied the waters in this thread. I'll try to address your points one by one.

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Miami to win 1 game out of 5...They should be giving you odds.

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It is absurd to say that they should be giving me odds. Miami is a favorite this Sunday at home against the Jets. Pinnacle has the moneyline as +110/-120 right now, which means the market has Miami as 53.4% to win the game.

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Seriously, this is a horrible bet. Yes they play three junk teams in a row, two with home field, which is why I would entertain like -300 or -400. Your best hope is NE clinches and decides not to go for a perfect season and plays their second string.


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You say that they play 3 junk teams in a row, two at home, and then go on to say their best chance is against NE? I don't even know how to address this.

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Further Cin is not a junk team and there must be validity to my point as I read the thread after I posted and now I'm seeing other posts indicating other sites offering far better prices.


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No, you are getting confused by reading old posts. At the top of each post, you can see the date and time the post was made. The original post was made on 11/10 and those responses are from 11/11. Furthermore, there were NOT other sites offering better prices. If you go back and read the thread, you will see that those posters were comparing apples to oranges. They were comparing the Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop I found on 5Dimes, to a NO TEAM TO GO 0-16 team prop found on WSEX. The problem was that the Rams were also winless at that time (more on that later), so they were two entirely different props.


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In sum -700 is ridiculous, -300-400 is my sweet spot, -500 prob true odds.


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The line is not -700. Again, you are reading a post made on November 10th. The line when I wrote my newest post was -525.

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Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?


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What are the chances that the 2007 St. Louis Rams would lose their first 8 games, and then win their next two? Using your logic, something like this would never be expected to happen.

Also, the math I did was very straightforward. If you think the Dolphins have a much smaller chance of winning those games, then you should be betting against them every week. For example, Las Vegas has Miami as favored to win this week. If you think this line is ridiculous, then I understand you don't agree with my conclusions, and you must be unloading on the Jets. I have no problem with that viewpoint.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

I just did some very rough numbers and figured that Miami was 99.32% to win at least one game since the beginning of the season. That's running bad.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

so I realize everyone here is saying get on the mia to lose side, but long ago I took a shot at the other side. Got it 13-1, and now I am hoping for some hedging? advice.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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so I realize everyone here is saying get on the mia to lose side, but long ago I took a shot at the other side. Got it 13-1, and now I am hoping for some hedging? advice.

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Actually, I am saying bet on Miami to WIN a game. I am sure that is what you meant though, and you have 13 to 1 on Miami to go 0-16. Correct me if I am wrong.

What sites do you have money on?

Do you have a WSEX account? Do you have a Matchbook account? 5Dimes?

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

anyone know what a good line is for the pats to go 16-0?

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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anyone know what a good line is for the pats to go 16-0?

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We have a long thread for that prop. I did some estimates last week (prior to the Philly game but still useful).

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

i have $ at sportsbetting and wagerstreet

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

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i have $ at sportsbetting and wagerstreet

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I'm not familiar with either of those sites, so I just checked them out. Sportsbetting has the same selections/lines as Sportsbook, so it is obviously part of that group.

Unfortunately, they don't have a Miami 0-16 prop. One thing about Sportsbook though is that you can email them, and they will consider putting up any prop you suggest. Well, at least that is how it was in the past. I would contact their customer service and see if this is still possible.

I don't have an account at Wagerstreet, and they won't let me look at the lines. Do they have any Miami 0-16 props?

As far as I know, only WSEX has a Miami 0-16 yes/no prop up right now. In the past few weeks Bodog and 5Dimes did also, but they haven't had it for a while.

Without a WSEX account, there is not much you can do right now. One thing you can consider is to bet on Miami this week. Miami is actually favored in that game, and if you are nervous about getting nothing out of your 13 to 1 bet, this is the game most likely to screw you.

If you think betting on Miami is +EV, or is EV neutral, than I suggest you put some money on Miami. I wouldn't reccomend you bet on Miami if you consider the bet to be -EV (as most bets are).

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

lol...sorry new to the site and just assumed that this was post Pitt game...if they were offering -700 three games ago then Yes that was a GREAT price...if it was -700 now that would not be a good bet....just ballparking it I think the correct price is -500 which I believe is where it is now....I still contend that any series of probabilities that return >90% chance of Miami winning a game this season are grossly flawed.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Obv this is a bet where one cannot make a sig amt of $ due to cap so why dont we discuss some real opportunities...like how many units is everyone putting on the Jets here?

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Why would anybody put money on the wrong side at a bad price?

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

yowserss,

There's only 5 games left. I would be really interested in your opinion of the Dolphins chances to win each game assuming each team stands pat with their rosters.

Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
 

Chance to LOSE:
NYJ - 55% (I actually think its 65% but I dont want to cause an uproar given where the spread is)
BUF - 60%
BAL - 70%
NE - So much uncertainty depending who they start but to be conservative lets say 90%
CIN - 80%