Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

This is Part 4 of Play a Hand with the Masters #3. If you haven't already responded to Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 you should do so first.

Setup
$650 PokerStars Qualifier for the PokerStars Carribean Adventure (PCA)
9-Handed
Blinds 10/20
Hero is Strassa
No reads on villain

Stacks
Hero (CO) t2540
BB t3245

Pre-Flop
All fold to hero who has 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t80. Button and SB fold. BB calls t60.

Flop
Pot: t170

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t140. BB raises to t300. Hero calls t160.

Turn
Pot: t770

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t520. BB calls t520.

River
Pot: t1810

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Action is on the hero.

River Questions
1) What do you think the villain has?

2) Do you check or bet (and if so, how much)? If you bet anything less than all-in, what's your plan if check-raised? Obviously explain your reasoning for your action.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Check, there aren't any hands that have you beat that will fold to a bet and there are very few hands that are worse that will payoff a bet.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

The question that comes to my mind is whether he just hit a draw he was chasing and wants us to continue the aggression we've shown throughout the hand.
I'm willing to just check behind for the reasons Pat mentioned. The pot's already big enough at this point to just take down and not risking being trapped by that dangerous river

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Pot is t1810, Hero has t1640 behind.

The river completes a very likely flush draw and a very unlikely straight draw.

The fact that the villain check-called the turn is a very good sign, IMO it says that Hero was ahead at that point and the villain was on some kind of draw (or perhaps a weak 9 or middle pp, but most likely some kind of draw).

That being said, a bet on this river would be a serious mistake IMO, because the draws that missed will fold, and the ones that hit will raise.

Therefore, this seems like a clear time to check behind.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

River Questions
1) What do you think the villain has?
2) Do you check or bet (and if so, how much)? If you bet anything less than all-in, what's your plan if check-raised? Obviously explain your reasoning for your action.

I put him on a flush draw after he checked the turn, so no way am I betting here. The only reason to bet is if I don't want to show that I had 75o. But I am going to get raised by hands that are beating me and the others probably aren't going to call. I seriously do not think my hand is good. Free showdown is awesome. This is, like, the easiest check ever.

-Gross

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason to bet is if I don't want to show that I had 75o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate please.

It seems to me (as I suggested in the first thread of the series) that if you play 75o at this point you are hoping to get to showdown. At this stage of the tournament blind stealing will not be a big concern, so if showing down this hand the effects of
1) making blind stealing more difficult against these opponents, and
2) making Hero less predictable.

Then the overall effect of the showdown is a beneficial one to the Hero IMO.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Very easy check. Villain could easily have a low flush and is check/calling. When last to act on the river, don't bet with a medium strength hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Sure. If I don't want people to think I am a LAG, then I can bet on the river to induce a fold so I don't have to showdown. Most of the time, I don't know why you'd really want to do this, especially when analyzing this hand. Like you said, it's early, and if the donkey's think I am a fellow donk, EV shoots way up. I was just trying to think of something positive to say in defense of betting the river. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] For this hand, the only way we could bet on the end (and for it to be +EV) is to KNOW that he will call with a worse hand. The way this hand went down (and remember we had no pre-flop reads, cuz it's early), I don't think it is possible to know.

Hope that made sense.

-Gross

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I actually want to push. From villain's play on this hand so far, I believe him to be a donkey. I don't see a donkey checking this river with a two pair or better, so I think we're ahead. There's no reason to not to bet when we're ahead, and the pot's about the size of our stack, so I'm pushing.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Let's play this from the Villian's perspective.

He called a raise preflop. He checkraised and was called on the flop. He checked and the guy bet 3/4 pot on the turn and he called.

Then when the flush draw gets there, you think he checks if he made the flush? It sure looks pretty likely that Jason isn't on a flush draw, so why check if you make the flush and risk jason checking behind w/ a hand like two pair or an overpair. I just don't buy that the BB has a flush and would check there.

I think that you need to value bet that river. Since the villian has played this hand like a donkey, I fully expect him to pay off w/ his better one pair hands. Pot is ~1800, we have somewhere around 2k, so I think that we should bet 1k (and call a push).