Bills +17 at NE
 

Warning: Low real analysis

I know this sounds very BSP-like, but is there really any way a team should be this huge of a dog to any other team in the NFL? I realize that NE has been creaming their competition and are playing at home, but BUF lost by the closest of margins to DEN(who would probably be a single-digit dog to NE in the same situation). Their offense has been anemic, but this is still a divisional game.

Does this line sound right to the gurus of this sub-forum? I've remembered a few INDY lines this big vs. HOU(don't remember if they covered or not) in the past few years, but I just don't buy it.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

When somebody romps on national tv, you can usually find a little value by fading them the next week.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

I think there are very few NFL teams that will beat any other NFL team by 17 points 50% of the time.

- C -

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

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I think there are very few NFL teams that will beat any other NFL team by 17 points 50% of the time.

and if it was Houston romping on Nat'l TV, this line would be 11, not 17

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Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

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I know this sounds very BSP-like, but is there really any way a team should be this huge of a dog to any other team in the NFL?

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Yes

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I realize that NE has been creaming their competition and are playing at home, but BUF lost by the closest of margins to DEN(who would probably be a single-digit dog to NE in the same situation).

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Denver outgained Buffalo huge in that game, but had trouble getting in the end zone, and gave up a punt return touchdown.

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Does this line sound right

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Yup

Keep in mind Buffalo lost whatshisname at CB in free agency to the 49ers and began the season with what was considered a suspect secondary before being hammered with injuries in week 1.

I believe that with divisional teams that know each other better, 'anything can happen', but I sure wouldn't put anything behind Buffalo in this one. And since New England seems to be reacting to the whole cheatergate thing with an air of self righteousness, I wonder if the chances of them staying focused for a lesser opponent after a big televised game aren't higher than normal.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know this sounds very BSP-like, but is there really any way a team should be this huge of a dog to any other team in the NFL?

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Yes

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I realize that NE has been creaming their competition and are playing at home, but BUF lost by the closest of margins to DEN(who would probably be a single-digit dog to NE in the same situation).

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Denver outgained Buffalo huge in that game, but had trouble getting in the end zone, and gave up a punt return touchdown.

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Does this line sound right

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Yup

Keep in mind Buffalo lost whatshisname at CB in free agency to the 49ers and began the season with what was considered a suspect secondary before being hammered with injuries in week 1.

I believe that with divisional teams that know each other better, 'anything can happen', but I sure wouldn't put anything behind Buffalo in this one. And since New England seems to be reacting to the whole cheatergate thing with an air of self righteousness, I wonder if the chances of them staying focused for a lesser opponent after a big televised game aren't higher than normal.

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Very good points... I was thinking the same thing concerning the reacting to spygate in such a way... imagine the alternative, if they begin playing poorly, especially right after they get caught and are forced to "stop cheating" then people would definately be more inclined to think the "cheating" was their reason for being so dominating the past few years, Super Bowls would be criticized even moreso etc... I look for them to continue dominating (by 17, hmmm... hard to say)

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

2003:

@ buff, buff wins 31-0
@ NE, NE wins 31-0

2004:

@ buff, NE wins 31-17
@ NE, NE wins 29-6

2005:

@ NE, NE wins 21-16
@ Buff, NE wins 35-7

2006:

@ NE, NE wins 19-17
@ Buff, NE wins 28-6

NE seems to squeak out a close one in their first meetings, whether it be home or away, then destroy them in the 2nd, i like buff +17 decent

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
2003:

@ buff, buff wins 31-0
@ NE, NE wins 31-0

2004:

@ buff, NE wins 31-17
@ NE, NE wins 29-6

2005:

@ NE, NE wins 21-16
@ Buff, NE wins 35-7

2006:

@ NE, NE wins 19-17
@ Buff, NE wins 28-6

NE seems to squeak out a close one in their first meetings, whether it be home or away, then destroy them in the 2nd, i like buff +17 decent

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Just curious, is there alot of merit in History? I know that is a newb question but I see it given quite a bit of weight in analysis with some of the posters around here. My brain doesn't usually function that way, the closer dates are obviously good for analyzing, but 3-4 years ago with different players and such... I dunno. I am here to improve on analyzing lines/games and would love some advice in this area.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2003:

@ buff, buff wins 31-0
@ NE, NE wins 31-0

2004:

@ buff, NE wins 31-17
@ NE, NE wins 29-6

2005:

@ NE, NE wins 21-16
@ Buff, NE wins 35-7

2006:

@ NE, NE wins 19-17
@ Buff, NE wins 28-6

NE seems to squeak out a close one in their first meetings, whether it be home or away, then destroy them in the 2nd, i like buff +17 decent

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, is there alot of merit in History? I know that is a newb question but I see it given quite a bit of weight in analysis with some of the posters around here. My brain doesn't usually function that way, the closer dates are obviously good for analyzing, but 3-4 years ago with different players and such... I dunno. I am here to improve on analyzing lines/games and would love some advice in this area.

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I wouldn't put a ton of weight in this, but this along with some of the other factors which have been mentioned makes me like buff +17 decent. I'm not going crazy here.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

The problem with it is that with that huge of a spread you can still get one team killing another and wind up having a back-door cover from something stupid happening. NE up 30-10 in the middle of the 4th Q, you really think they're gonna care if they stonewall Buff with under 4:00 to play? Lee Evans can't go deep to cover while the Pats are all celebrating the win on the sideline?

Giving that many points is ridiculous. I don't have +17 on the books I use so I'm hoping it hits that by game time, but I still like them at +16 and probably even +15. I'm definitely hoping the public feels the same way most others here seem to, and bet that line up to +17 or OH PLEASE GOD +17.5 where I'll bet heavy.

BTW, I need to give props to Naj for my 50% 17 point favs comment...was discussing with him elsewhere and he made that point, I reiterated it here.

- C -