AA OTB
 

9 handed.

a 15/11/1.4 opens in MP1, a 33/4/.56 CO coldcalls, i 3bet A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] OTB, sb drops, bb coldcalls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop(12.5sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check, check, check, i bet, bb calls, MP checkraises, CO calls, i 3bet, bb folds, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn(10.75bb): Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP checks, CO checks, i bet, MP raises, CO calls, i call.

River(16.75bb): 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MP bets, CO calls, i fold.

eh?

Re: AA OTB
 

Do you have any more info on CO? Is he an idiot?

Re: AA OTB
 

I call the river but i'm also finding out that i'm a complete show down monkey so take that into account.

Re: AA OTB
 

i think this depends highly on the postflop aggression level of your opponents. in a live game i fold this without thinking about it.

Re: AA OTB
 

I agree with kit, in my 6/12 game this is a pretty easy fold unless the CO is functionally retarded. Online, I really don't know. For 17 big bets calling can't be awful....

Re: AA OTB
 

The first thing that jumps out at me, assuming I'm reading the PT stats correctly, is that this guy is tight as hell, yes? He clearly isn't retarded, and your line is extremely strong. He's still coming, so I think that the fold is good.

However, this is online and the pot has 17 BB in it, so it's pretty close, but I'm still folding. Live this is the easiest fold ever no matter the size of the pot.

Re: AA OTB
 

It does look like you are in 3rd place here. I'd say a set of Ks or maybe 9s since MP just called pf and 2 pair or 1 pair and a flush draw from the CO.

Re: AA OTB
 

I'd fold this live every time.I haven't played internet enough to say online but MP1 has you beat, KQ or 99 I'd guess.CO probably had something stupid like QJo.

Re: AA OTB
 

[ QUOTE ]

It does look like you are in 3rd place here. I'd say a set of Ks or maybe 9s since MP just called pf and 2 pair or 1 pair and a flush draw from the CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure MP has KQ

Re: AA OTB
 

If you are pretty much just going on stats, I think your river fold is -EV. Given just the stats, I think you're good more than 1/20 times.

Sure MP is fairly passive after the flop, but that could mean a lot of things. Passive/aggresive postflop doesn't say much. It's not a useful number in the same way that preflop stats are useful.

The reason is that a player can have a very high AF and almost never bluff, or a pretty low AF and bluff very frequently, but rarely valuebet. Players may never bet 2ndpair or a draw, but always play top pair superfast even when their hand is prob no good. A player's AF is the finished product, but how it was made tells the real story. This is why individual reads are infinitely better than PAHUD stats.

Also, players will play more passive/aggressive depending on the pot size, so MP could be getting overaggro with KJ. He may also just be pretty damn sure his AK is good, and be a poor handreader. Since you are a good handreader, you can say to yourself "the only hand that really makes sense to have me beaten here is KQ, and MAYBE 99. There's a small chance he has AK, but I feel good about very heavily discounting QQ, and KK"

CO's call on the turn could be a ton of hands, and so can his river call, so worrying about overcalling here may be an unfounded concern. Afterall, he is playing 33% in a fullgame, so he could easily have QJ, QT, J9, JT, KJ, KT, any suited king etc. etc.
Remember, he may also be reacting to the size of the pot. It is usually wrong to give bad players credit for making strategic adjustments, but one thing that they WILL do semi reliably is think "omg money I have to call"

Make the nine a deuce, and you should be more inclined to fold the river. The nine just puts of too many pair+gutshot combos into CO's range.