NL25 How to play this draw
 

Whats the standard line here against a player who seems fairly tight preflop.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $26.45
CO: $30.10
Hero (BTN): $35.30
SB: $24.75
BB: $25
UTG: $25

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $0.85</font>, MP calls $0.85, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.65, MP calls $2.65

Flop: ($10.85) 9http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Thttp://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8.10</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $22.95 and is All-In</font>, Hero?????

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

shove, oetd, tp,

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

We are calling or folding which I think makes this decision different although I may be wrong.

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

I think I check behind on this flop alot. Expect to get check-raised alot on this flop esp. with the PF action. We have a decent draw and a hand with showdown value, I don't want to get raised off my hand here.

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

Yeah i would call def

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

instacall

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

14.85 to call, 27.05 in the pot. Obv if you have the best hand this is a call, if you don't have the best hand you have 8 outs unless you are against JQ. if you are against 76 you have 7 outs, plus backdoor FH possibilites. Even if you if you give villain a super tight range of overpairs, sets, 2 pairs, straight or AT you have like 42% equity, gots to calls. Can anyone come up with an even slightly possible range that puts this as a fold?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.993% 39.33% 02.66% 245319 16590.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 58.007% 55.35% 02.66% 345201 16590.00 { 77+, ATs, QJs, J7s, T8s+, 98s, 76s, ATo, QJo, J7o, T8o+, 98o, 76o }

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

He calls opens 6% of the time so he is very tight when calling a PFR. Once I bet this I don't think I can fold to his raise but the question is "should I have bet this flop in the first place knowing this opponent is tight preflop?"

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

I think I fold and throw up. I think the villain has it. He was the third call preflop, which makes some of those suited connectors marginally good calls in 2nd position 3-way. He then check/raised all in when faced with aggression and he's a straightforward player. There's no straight flush draw here, so reasonably I think he has either a made straight or a stupidly played set.

Regardless of whether he actually has it, should we call?
It costs 15 to win 40, or 37%. You need a Q or a 7, of which we can assume the villain has 1. Lets also assume that the chances of him playing a set are equal to you hitting a higher set or making a runner runner boat, so thats a wash. So you have 7 outs (4 queens + 4 7's minus one that is probably in the villains hand). With the rules of 2 and 4, on the flop, you have a 28% chance of hitting and no implied odds because he's all in. Now also discount the fact that if he has QJ, all your 7's became irrelevant, and you have one less J for you boat. Either way you're far short of you 38%.

For anyone who thinks this is a bluff, how often does a straightforward player, check/re-raise all in versus a good sized flop bet? Enough to make up the difference between whats probably a 25% chance of winning and the 38% needed to call this hand? Probably not.

Re: NL10 How to play this draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I fold and throw up. I think the villain has it. He was the third call preflop, which makes some of those suited connectors marginally good calls in 2nd position 3-way. He then check/raised all in when faced with aggression and he's a straightforward player. There's no straight flush draw here, so reasonably I think he has either a made straight or a stupidly played set.

Regardless of whether he actually has it, should we call?
It costs 15 to win 40, or 37%. You need a Q or a 7, of which we can assume the villain has 1. Lets also assume that the chances of him playing a set are equal to you hitting a higher set or making a runner runner boat, so thats a wash. So you have 7 outs (4 queens + 4 7's minus one that is probably in the villains hand). With the rules of 2 and 4, on the flop, you have a 28% chance of hitting and no implied odds because he's all in. Now also discount the fact that if he has QJ, all your 7's became irrelevant, and you have one less J for you boat. Either way you're far short of you 38%.

For anyone who thinks this is a bluff, how often does a straightforward player, check/re-raise all in versus a good sized flop bet? Enough to make up the difference between whats probably a 25% chance of winning and the 38% needed to call this hand? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG raiser, who calls a reraise and only opens 6% of the time and you think he has QJ, 67 or 7J almost ALL of the time? a set is so much more likely than a straight, 77 or an overpair i think is more likely than a straight.