FTP NL50: how bad of a raise is it ?
 

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($34.50)
SB ($42.30)
BB ($12.65)
UTG ($29.85)
UTG+1 ($44.75)
MP1 ($207.25)
MP2 ($51.65)
MP3 ($30)
Hero ($55.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 checks, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.25) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets $3.25</font>, Hero raises to $10</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $32.75 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $19.50.

First of all I decided to play super nitty FR so I didnt raise preflop in LP. No read on vilain.
When the flop come I think the best the vilain can have is a king so I'd have 16 outs, spades+ten+ace. When I raise and he shove meaning he could have 2 pair or a set I'd still have 13 outs spades +tens making me a (small) favorite.

One guy in the game said he would have just called the flop and reevaluate on the turn. What do you guys think ?

Re: FTP NL50: how bad of a raise is it ?
 

You're double counting your outs.

If he's got top pair, not AK, you have at best 9 spades, 3 non-spade tens and 3 aces for 15 outs.

If he's got two pair or a set, you have at best 9 spades and 3 non-spade tens for 12 outs.

Enough with the math. I'd call in this spot. I don't want everyone folding when I have a draw to the nuts.

Re: FTP NL50: how bad of a raise is it ?
 

ups on math

Ok now lets say the turn is a blank and the vilain bet pot again, now what do I do ? I'd hate to lay it down but I dont think I can do anything else.

Re: FTP NL50: how bad of a raise is it ?
 

If everyone folds behind you on the flop, it's heads up and he pots a blank turn, you have to fold.

Re: FTP NL50: how bad of a raise is it ?
 

Ok. What about the call on the flop? I woulda raised with AK but I though AQ wasnt that great even in LP. As it turned out, the guy had KJo and he didn't raise either preflop in LP, is this normal or do you think one of us should have raised?

Re: FTP NL50: how bad of a raise is it ?
 

Didn't understand the reasoning of not raising preflop, but flop played fine.