AA deepish, ugly river card
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($384)
MP ($96.35)
CO ($1042.45)
Button ($717.20)
Hero ($907.15)
BB ($291.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $12</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $40</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $28.

Flop: ($84) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $62</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $152</font>, Hero calls $90.

Turn: ($388) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($388) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $300</font>, hero?

i don't know villain too well. he's 26/23 in 100 hands.

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

this seems like a clear fold to me

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

You think he raises the flop with a jack when you're &gt;2 BI deep? Looks like he could be v-betting KK. Or making some weird bluff.

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
this seems like a clear fold to me

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Seems like a clear call to me. Is he checking behind AJ on the turn? Why? He's not checking behind any sets, thats for sure. This is a bad river to bluff at, but its a pretty awesome river to value bet at. I think he shows up with like KK, QQ, TT a lot here.

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

yea i call.

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

w/these stack sizes, villain could definitely check behind w/AJ, but i still call.

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

yeah call. raising the flop with AJ is pretty darn dumb but it is the only hand that he can have that beats you and a set (lol).

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
w/these stack sizes, villain could definitely check behind w/AJ, but i still call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then bet 300 on the river? I guess its possible no read on villain, but this is a really weird way to play AJ. I'm calling, expecting to pretty much always be winning, and making a note when I don't.

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

easy call. He is on pure bluff i guess.
Flop - "pretty dry, he missed a lot, i raise"
turn - "ok. i just give up"
river - "wow. nice card, and he is passive. He obviously didn't had J and probably not AA-QQ (and probable fold it), so I'm bluffing... "

Re: AA deepish, ugly river card
 

that jack is as scary for him as it is for u. i dont think he bluffs here more than 10% and realistically like 5-8%. KK/QQ is somewhat unrealistic the way he played his hand. ur aces need to be good 30% of the time to break even. so WCS is he bluffs 15% of his range and vbets KK/QQ 10% of the time. thats still 75% of his range that beats you which are most likely a J/set.