The final truth about down swings.
 

I'm going to campaign for the reality of the situation here. Every day I see tons of threads about "running bad" and "down swings". More and more 2+2ers seem to be feeling sorry for themselves whenever the cards just don't seem to be falling they way they would like. They want to know if it will end. They want to know what to do next. They want to quit poker all together. The truth of the situation is they might as well quit.

There are a couple things many of you have failed to acknowledge when you decided to start playing poker.
1) Downswings happen! They'll happen to you. They'll happen to me. They'll happen to anyone who plays the game enough. They'll even happen to the best players in the world. It is inevitable. If this was realized by those of you who are thinking "I knew that" right now we would have all these sob stories all over the forums.
2) The cause of the down swing may be you. I'm not going over the line by saying more than half of the members of this forum are losing players. Quit blaming the seat, luck, the deck, the fish accross the table from you. If you can't put the blame where it will most often need to be (on your own shoulders) you have no business playing poker.

The most common answer I see to these questions about what to do and when will it end are met too many times with "Take A Break". This is insane. Taking a break may be the way to go in some of these situations, but the truth is this...
If you were aware of the the items mentioned above and by being aware had the correct mind-set it wouldn't be an issue. You don't need a break. You don't need a nap. You need to wake up and accept the realities of your situation. Once you've done that you need to do the following.
1) Stop feeling sorry for yourself.
2) Evaluate your game. Study hand histories, post hands here on the forums, ask questions.
3) Study up. Read and re-read your poker books, read posts here on the forums, take dvantage of the 2+2 Magazine.
4) Get on the tables and correctly apply what you've learned!!

It's time to man up everyone. Put the blame where it belongs. Get your mind in tune with reality. Expect down swings and bad runs to happen. Deal with them and get through it. Continue to improve. There's no need for a break because you can't handle these things. If you need to take a break because of these things give it up. Poker is not for you.

Cheers,

deacsoft

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

nh

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

Very good post. Perhaps instead of all the focus on where the blame lies, what you really mean is that there is no one to blame for down swings (a lot of the time).

Anyway, everyone has their psychological breaking point. It's our job to make the threshold higher than the varience we experience.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going over the line by saying more than half of the members of this forum are losing players.

[/ QUOTE ]
You give the members of this forum too much credit, I think.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going over the line by saying more than half of the members of this forum are losing players.

[/ QUOTE ]
You give the members of this forum too much credit, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you guys come up with these numbers? No way half the people here lose.

Poker just isn't that freaking complicated a game at the low limits.

Nigel

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

Nice post, although I disagree with one point:

[ QUOTE ]
The most common answer I see to these questions about what to do and when will it end are met too many times with "Take A Break". This is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your point, which is to be brutally honest with yourself about your game. If you are playing badly, simply taking a break - then returning to the tables to play badly some more - isn't going to help. But still, I think that for many players in the midst of a rough downswing, taking a break is a very good idea. Especially if the downswing, originally caused by variance, is now being fueled by poor play due to lack of confidence and/or tilt. I've found that taking a break has helped me come back to poker with a better frame of mind after a bad streak. True, maybe everyone doesn't need to do it, but it's good advice for some people.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

Good post - but not a "final truth".

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

Nice post, however...

The first time someone goes through a big downswing it can feel very isolated. Many times people will post on here just to know they aren't alone in going through it. Regardless of the obviousness of it. Especially when they're not really seeing the long swings of other people directly around them. They see the idiots dragging pot after pot, read on here how everyone has an 8bb/100 win rate and wonder if they're the only ones experiencing this.

I think your post is more relevant to those who've been through the swings a couple times and came through it. Not for someone experiencing the swing for the first time or 2. For them, taking a break is the thing to do because they don't understand the concept of it from a 1st person view and could be more subject to tilt. Is it really fair to hold them to a standard when they've never approached the obstacle before? Or don't have that much personal experience with it? Not really. I know it took me a couple times to really get the hang of it.

I, for one, have always found it at least somewhat inspiring to read how someone overcame a swing whether during a session or a longer dryspell. The latest one being clarky digging out of a huge hole during a wild 20-40 game. Even though it was a small response in a big thread, it helped rejuvinate a little something in my game.

Now posting about bad beats in general is another thing...

b

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

My point was more that taking a break wouldn't be necessary if it was fully understood that these swings happen. Therefore, you would not be upset or on tilt because of one. The problem needs to be understood before a proper solution can be decided upon. In this case there shouldn't be a problem in the first place.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
My point was more that taking a break wouldn't be necessary if it was fully understood that these swings happen. Therefore, you would not be upset or on tilt because of one. The problem needs to be understood before a proper solution can be decided upon. In this case there shouldn't be a problem in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on man you could say this about road accidents, sometimes it's just so brutal a break is needed if only just to work out whether its you doing stupid [censored] or bad luck. People should do whatever it is they need to get their head back in the right place, if its taking a break then take a break.

Mack

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

I firmly believe that downswings happen because of the player, not the cards... Learn to fold in tight marginal situations.. Alot of players i notice when complaining about badbeats and downswings and whatnot, they will play badly until they start getting lucky again, and then their game will pick up from there.. because they are happy again.

If you face a couple beats in a night stop, go out to the bar, get laid, and go back to playing poker.. Its the player that creates bad runs, not the cards... believe me.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I firmly believe that downswings happen because of the player, not the cards... Learn to fold in tight marginal situations.. Alot of players i notice when complaining about badbeats and downswings and whatnot, they will play badly until they start getting lucky again, and then their game will pick up from there.. because they are happy again.

If you face a couple beats in a night stop, go out to the bar, get laid, and go back to playing poker.. Its the player that creates bad runs, not the cards... believe me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm, no. My guess is you haven't logged many hands of poker.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I firmly believe that downswings happen because of the player, not the cards... Learn to fold in tight marginal situations.. Alot of players i notice when complaining about badbeats and downswings and whatnot, they will play badly until they start getting lucky again, and then their game will pick up from there.. because they are happy again.

If you face a couple beats in a night stop, go out to the bar, get laid, and go back to playing poker.. Its the player that creates bad runs, not the cards... believe me.

[/ QUOTE ]

People do run bad, and can play well through the dry spell.

What you are describing is common, however, and should be looked for by anyone who hasn't conquered a downswing by taking the steps that OP mentioned.

It is usually the first cause. But that doesn't mean it's the final answer.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

Good post.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I firmly believe that downswings happen because of the player, not the cards... Learn to fold in tight marginal situations.. Alot of players i notice when complaining about badbeats and downswings and whatnot, they will play badly until they start getting lucky again, and then their game will pick up from there.. because they are happy again.

If you face a couple beats in a night stop, go out to the bar, get laid, and go back to playing poker.. Its the player that creates bad runs, not the cards... believe me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You could be the best player in the world and you will certainly have a downswing that is due to nothing more than not getting profitable situations. Saying that downswings are due to nothing more than bad play shows a huge lack of understanding of basic poker mathematics.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, everyone has their psychological breaking point. It's our job to make the threshold higher than the varience we experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really just a matter of playing within your bankroll and limits.

Still, this has a nice ring to it. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

I like the post overall. I think there's a lot of truth in it. I've been on a "downswing" for about 2 weeks (about 10,000 hands) and I'm pretty sure if I look hard enough I can find specific mistakes I made and have been making.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think your post is more relevant to those who've been through the swings a couple times and came through it. Not for someone experiencing the swing for the first time or 2.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with the point that this is geared more towards someone experienced. They should simply just know better. However, I believe that it may be somewhat relevant to new players too. Allow me to explain this point.

Anyone who wants to start playing poker should do their homework first. Even more rare than the royal flush is a player with no idea who starts playing and becomes a long-term winning player. Again, you need to do your homework first. You read a couple books, post and read on these forums, etc. To maximise your ability to learn and understand you must do some research first. Poker is not set up to be a trial and error game. It is easy to lose and get discouraged early on without the proper mind-set and education. Study up and know what you're getting into. Prepare yourself. They don't grab people off the streets and send them to Iraq. They train them first. Because of this training their chance to survive and be effective in times of war is increased exponentially. So, if you've trained yourself you should have an idea of what to expect. You should know that downswings happen to everyone. You should also know that over time the laws of probability will hold true (or at least close to it). If they are not you have leaks in your game that you have not identified.

[ QUOTE ]
Is it really fair to hold them to a standard when they've never approached the obstacle before? Or don't have that much personal experience with it?

[/ QUOTE ]
With an understanding of the correct approach to playing poker, I believe it is. Put some work in to get positive results. It is no ones fault but thier own if they're going into poker blindly. Like everything else in life, there is nothing free in poker. Poker is preformance based. The more work you put into it the better your potential earnings. If they're looking for hand-outs they're looking in the wrong place. Everything I've achieved and every cent I've made in poker is a direct result of countless hours preparation and hard work.

Again, you can't just dive in and expect to win. Do yourself the favor and do your homework first. This will provide you with the best oppertunity to play well and win early on. To do it any other way is just foolish.

(side note to bernie: The aduience I'm addressing in this post changes several times. Much of this I'm not directing at you even though this is a response to your post.)

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I firmly believe that downswings happen because of the player, not the cards... Learn to fold in tight marginal situations.

[/ QUOTE ]
In some situations this can be the case. However, your "firm" belief needs to be adjusted. It is true that sometimes you will get sucked out pot after pot, miss every draw, and get unplayable starting hands for extended periods of time. The best way to overcome this is to be aware of it and understand it.

[ QUOTE ]
If you face a couple beats in a night stop, go out to the bar, get laid, and go back to playing poker.. Its the player that creates bad runs, not the cards... believe me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I'm saying is not necessary. Bad beats will happen. Secondly, they need to understand that bad beats are good. They mean that someone else is playing incorrectly against you. They will get lucky and hit an inside straight draw roughly 1 in 10.5 hands. They win once and you win the other 9.5 times. Sounds like a good ddeal to me. The player needs to learn to deal with bad beats or quit playing poker until they can.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

The bottom line is that no 2 people are exactly the same, and so no 1 solution will work for everyone. For some, taking a break can be a big help. Others can plow ahead and play right though the downswing. Whatever works.

Downswings can be tough to deal with. Sure, intellectually we may know they are just a part of the long-term flow of the game. But that doesn't mean it's easy when you're stuck in the middle of one with no end in sight (especially the first time). It's kind of like knowing intellectually that everyone gets their heart broken at some point in their life. This knowledge doesn't help much when the girl you love just dumped you. OK, maybe a bad analogy. But still, just saying "suck it up" trivializes how tough these downswings can be when you're stuck in the middle of one. I personally don't see taking a break, or looking for a little sympathy on 2+2 from those who've been through it, as a sign of weakness.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

I think your post is dead on but I am going to disagree with a portion of this reply.

[ QUOTE ]
Even more rare than the royal flush is a player with no idea who starts playing and becomes a long-term winning player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have it exactly backwards. I think people get interested in Poker, and then learn to beat the game. Poker pretty much has to be a learn as you go game, because it is impossible to know what you don't know. You have to play some before you learn enough to ask the right questions and figure out what you need to learn. There is an old saying that Winners are losers that got angry. I believe we start playing and then if we want to win badly enough, we do what it takes to learn.

I am also certain that more downswings are caused by poor play than by normal variance. I have caught myself blaming variance and then later discovering that I was playing badly.

I thing your estimate of half the people here being losers is very close to the mark. I am certain that we have the highest percentage of winners of any group on the planet but if only 5% of players are long term winners, it would be very optimistic to think that most of us are long term winners.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Learn to fold in tight marginal situations..

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not particularly useful advice. Marginal situations are marginal; i.e. close. So by definition any mistake you make in a marginal situation is not going to be that costly.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]

The most common answer I see to these questions about what to do and when will it end are met too many times with "Take A Break".

[/ QUOTE ]

What people are really trying to say is "Stop tilting, you moron!", but they are too polite to use those words. "Take a break" is a suggestion that will lead to the desired result.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

I am yet to see any really good player complain about downswings.

Final word.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

i just want to say that while reading this entire thread i went from -150BB to +20BB in about 500 hands

key to end downswings = keep playing idiot (to everyone, not OP)

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who wants to start playing poker should do their homework first. Even more rare than the royal flush is a player with no idea who starts playing and becomes a long-term winning player. Again, you need to do your homework first. You read a couple books, post and read on these forums, etc. To maximise your ability to learn and understand you must do some research first. Poker is not set up to be a trial and error game. It is easy to lose and get discouraged early on without the proper mind-set and education. Study up and know what you're getting into. Prepare yourself. They don't grab people off the streets and send them to Iraq. They train them first. Because of this training their chance to survive and be effective in times of war is increased exponentially. So, if you've trained yourself you should have an idea of what to expect. You should know that downswings happen to everyone. You should also know that over time the laws of probability will hold true (or at least close to it). If they are not you have leaks in your game that you have not identified.


[/ QUOTE ]

Many of them will also say that practice is much different than actually being there. You can read all you want about swings, but until you actually go through it, you don't really realize just how hard they can be. It's a huge psychological hurdle for most players even if they've 'read' and 'studied' about it prior. The ablility to play through those times is one of the biggest tests of a players ability, imo. It's what really weeds out the wannabes and think they are's.

I also believe it can be even harder to get used to if one plays live instead of online. Online, a bad swing that lasts for a month will run 4+ months live. 4+months of losing or breakeven play can be pretty harsh to get through. It will seem like forever. If you've never done it, it can really twist your brain the first pass though that jungle.

I do agree that study builds a great foundation, but nothing compares to experience. Especially when dealing with the reality of the swing psychologically when in the middle of it.

Don't underestimate the psychological part of the game.

b

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Its the player that creates bad runs, not the cards... believe me.


[/ QUOTE ]

No thanks, I'm not going to believe you. Not as far as that's the only reason for downswings.

Why do you think the recommended bankroll is 3-500bbs for good winning players?

My guess is you haven't had your first bad swing yet or you'd have never made this statement in your post.

Sometimes the only thing the player does is happen to be there getting the cards. In that regard, yes, he is creating it simply by playing. But that's not necesarily a reflection of his level of skill.

b

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's kind of like knowing intellectually that everyone gets their heart broken at some point in their life. This knowledge doesn't help much when the girl you love just dumped you. OK, maybe a bad analogy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it's not that bad an analogy. Ever talk to a virgin about sexual technique or sex in general even though he's 'studied' all about it? It's a joke.

[ QUOTE ]
But still, just saying "suck it up" trivializes how tough these downswings can be when you're stuck in the middle of one. I personally don't see taking a break, or looking for a little sympathy on 2+2 from those who've been through it, as a sign of weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I was learning how to deal with swings, I posted about them on here. It really helped me understand them more especially when hearing from other players who responded to those threads. It is also theraputic.

b

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am yet to see any really good player complain about downswings.

Final word.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many good players did it before they became good players. Once they became good, they stopped complaining because they made it past it and learned how to deal with it.

b

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Online, a bad swing that lasts for a month will run 4+ months live

[/ QUOTE ]

For someone that 4 tables, 1 month is equivalent to 8 months of live play (4x the tables at almost 2x the speed per table)

An 8 month downswing/breakeven period would be pretty discomforting.

Thread hijack: Why do you play live as a source of income? I like to do it for social reasons sometimes, but for an extra-income stream, online play seems far superior to me, both in terms of pure profit and reduced variance per fixed unit of time (since you can crank through hands so much faster, clearly the variance per hand is similar)

I expect that you are going to say that the amount you make live is enough and that you enjoy the social nature of it rather than grinding it out solo in front of a computer.. but if not, I am curious.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
An 8 month downswing/breakeven period would be pretty discomforting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially if your living expenses roll is starting to run a little low.

I actually play both online and live. Online there is no question there is more money to be made. Off the top of my head, I prefer live for many of the reasons you mention. I also started out as a live player so it just seems that much more ingrained into me. I just don't see it as a video game like I think many do that primarily play online but never, if at all, play live.

I also really like social interaction. Generally, I like to be around people. Playing online for extended periods makes me feel like I'm isolated from people. Which could be somewhat of a carryover from my floorcovering days since I was the only one on the job with no one to talk to. It kind of sucked in that regard. That was one drawback I really hated in that job. But it didn't have enough weight factor to make me stop doing it.

I'm sure there may be more if I really put some thought into it. This is just what kind of came to my mind first.

b

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

What i meant was long bad runs are due to your mental state. You have to be thinking positive and you will notice the beats go away. If you dont believe that try reading a book on peace and zen, and your game will improve and badruns will merely be learning experiences instead of getting pissed off and pissing away even more of you roll..

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

They happen to everyone, but often people make excuses for their poor play. Ya the first 2 or 3 beats can be badbeats, but from their your mentalality is thrown off, it happened to me all the time... but now i realized i created my own badruns.. and as soon as i got lucky in a hand my mentality went way up and i started playing well again. I fyou keep the positive mentality through your badswings, what happens? You win.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

Exactly!!! ^^ its poor play that keeps the downswings alive...

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

"Saying that downswings are due to nothing more than bad play shows a huge lack of understanding of basic poker mathematics"

and what basic mathematics are these? understand you have to play well through the swing to overcome it, and thats hard to do when you cant handle one more loss, mentally.

Hello,dea! Roy Cooke stated that he NEVER had a down swing
 

of 200BB in all the years he's been playing.
SittingBull

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

My contention is that you can be playing very well and still have a bad/horrendous run. Not all bad runs of cards are caused because of bad play.

That's like saying all good runs are caused by stellar play. They aren't.

b

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

I once had this post which many people seemed to appreciate.

Along the lines of what Bernie was saying, on a trip to Commerce once with Dynasty I was in a great game. Super Aggro, but a great game. It was 2.75 hours before I won my first pot. Dynasty came by a little later and asked how I was doing? When I told him I was stuck over 6 racks ($6k) (and into the game for 8) he asked why I was still playing. My response was "if I stopped and left and came back to this room, I would KILL to be at this table. Since I'm at it now and I don't feel I'm playing badly, why wouldn't I stay?"

I rallied back and ended the session a mere $300 loser.

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

[ QUOTE ]
My contention is that you can be playing very well and still have a bad/horrendous run. Not all bad runs of cards are caused because of bad play.

That's like saying all good runs are caused by stellar play. They aren't.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactomundo!

Re: The final truth about down swings.
 

Thanks for this post. I'm in the middle of a truly horrendous downswing (500BB, not that anyone cares), and it helps to remind myself that I may not be completely at fault for it. I mean, I'm sure that I'm definitely responsible for part of it, but it helps my confidence level to remind myself that I'm not responsible for all of it.

When you're this low, anything that can help keep you from dipping into the abyss is helpful. You're fighting not only the anger against the "unfairness of it all" but that deep seated fear that maybe you weren't a winning player at all and maybe you never will be. And that's a lot to battle at the same time.

I'm hoping that I will come through this dark tunnel into the light on the other side and be better for it. The trick is surviving the tunnel in the first place, I guess.