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Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

This is Part 5 of Play a Hand with the Masters #3. If you haven't already responded to Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 you should do so first. The panel included Jason Strasser, Zee Justin, and Shaniac. Comments by the panel are in their appropriate colors.

Setup
$650 PokerStars Qualifier for the PokerStars Carribean Adventure (PCA)
9-Handed
Blinds 10/20
Hero is Strassa
No reads on villain

Stacks
Hero (CO) t2540
BB t3245

Pre-Flop
All fold to hero who has 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t80. Button and SB fold. BB calls t60.

Jason:I'm not 'stealing blinds' per se. I'm raising a deceptive hand which can make big hands and win big pots. Deep stacked you want to be in situations where you can win lots of pots without showdown, make tough hands to read that can stack people off, and hit runner runner draws and make solid value bets. I also want to please Shania, so in her name I'm going to be raising lots of hands to protect the value of my hands.

Zee Justin: I find that blind steals simply don't work often early in these tournaments, so I'm only opening in late position if I don't mind a call. With position and a potentially deceptive hand like 75s, I don't mind getting a call from a blind and playing some poker after the flop, so the raise is fine. 

Shaniac:If you're raising 75s, or any hand really, in level 1, it really shouldn't be with the intent of "stealing blinds." Those red chips in level 1 are worht about as much as a pez candy.

I'm never "stealing" blinds in level 1 or 2. I'm bumping my hands strictly for value. Or, if I do decide to get cute with a hand like 75s when the stacks are deep, it would be with the hope of flopping something like two-pair and stacking someone who's willing to go broke with less that early. It's obviously not a big deal to raise 80 chips and then fold the hand when you have 2500-ish still remaining, so there is certainly upside to moving chips around ealry.

Flop
Pot: t170

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t140.

Jason:I bet. Pretty standard size. I bet a lot of flops so this would be no different, even though I got pretty much an amazing flop for my hand.

A normal turn decision would be if villain CR me on the flop, I'd call and probably make a decision on the turn to call or raise a small amount so that I can show down my hand cheap (intending to probably check behind most rivers... I'd do this if I thought he was drawing) and prevent him from bluffing me off the best hand.

If he just called my turn bet and a friendly turn card came I'd bet if checked to. Playing this IF A do B game, though, is pretty silly IMO because there are just so many variables to consider at this point. Stuff like timing, board texture, etc...

Zee Justin: I'd bet 160 on the flop. It's not too strong as the blind can simply see it as a continuation bet. I raised preflop, how could I have hit the 975 flop? Also, I really hate giving a free card on this flop for obvious reasons. It's an easy bet.

Assuming the villian check calls the flop and checks the turn, I'm firing another bet on any turn except for a 6 or an 8. I have a strong hand, the board is draw heavy and scary, and I don't need any more deception than I already have. Bet Bet Bet.

If I get check raised on the flop my action partially depends on the size of the raise and what I think it means, but more often than not I will just call and play more poker on the turn. I'm not comitted for all my chips yet with bottom two, but chances are my hand is still good so I'm not going to give up easily.

Shaniac:Doubtful I'm checking the flop. Since I'd probably make a continuation bet with any standard hand that I raised preflop like AQ or AK+, the "weak lead" is a no brainer. Depending on your opponent, there's certainly a chance he'll go to the felt with you with as little as a pair of 8s. I'd probably bet around 150.

There's no way to say what my plan is for the turn. I mean seriously there are way too many variable to answer this part of the question competently. I'm trying to get the money in on the flop, that's the answer. If I bet and my opponent raises, I'm probably pushing.

Flop - continued

BB raises to t300. Hero calls t160.

Jason:When the Villain CR me I made a decision to call for a few reasons. Mostly, I didn't want to blow him off a worse made hand. I didnt think we were shallow enough where, if I reraised, I would be up against anything but a draw (which is not far behind), or a set. I figure I maximize my value versus pair of 9s, overpairs, etc, and keep the pot smaller when im behind (because I'm in no way tied to this pot). This, IMO, clearly outweighs charging my opponent to draw.

As for a range of hands, kind of irrelevant to think about a range here expect that I want to keep in hands that want to show down and are worse. He could have air, 2 pair, set, draw, etc. The texture of the turns means so much. So does timing. So do lots of things. I don't really want to play a hypothetical guessing game of what my plan is down the road.

Zee Justin:The opponent has made a small check raise. His hand hasn't been defined yet. He could have a monster, a draw, or he could simply be feeling me out to see if I hit the flop, so one pair and no pair are also possibilities. Basically we don't know what he has, so we have to put him on a wide range.

At this point in time, I think our hand is most likely the best, but we certainly don't have enough information to be sure of that.

If we raise to 900 or so, we are putting the opponent to a decision. Him folding will probaly be the most likely scenario in which case we win a medium pot. If he raises, he's putting us to a decision for all our chips. The chances that he has a draw or a strong one pair are strong enough that we should probably call, but it's not exactly a pretty scenario. Even when we're ahead, he'll generally have many outs against us. If he just calls the raise, we're put in an even tougher spot. Is he calling because he hes drawing to his flush? Is he calling with a monster to let us do the betting?

Instead, I'd rather call and see what happens on the turn. If a scare card comes, we can play the hand more cautiously and even fold to a big enough bet. If the turn is an offsuit deuce, I'd probably raise all-in if he makes a potish sized bet. Notice that if we play this way, we can minimize our losses when he hits on the turn and maximize our chances of winning when the turn misses him.
Part of the problem with raising is that we are simply risking too much for not enough gain. We are essentially going all-in for the medium sized pot by making any sort of flop raise. If we wait until the turn, we probably get another bet out of him and also have much more information before making a decision for all our chips.

Shaniac:Since it's hard to get a read this early (or there are no reads on this opp. in any case), there are are a few things I'm focusing on: extracting value when I'm ahead, trying not to lose action likewise, and not going broke against a monster or big draw.

I obviously don't have the "right" answer here, but I think your decision should be based largely on your outlook for the tournament. Once hero decides to flat call, he has made a larger decision, namely that his hand is too vulnerable to play hard here and that mean he's folding a lot of times on the turn to players who are competently agressive and will follow through with a real bet. Against the same opponent of course, I'm planning on raising the turn if it bricks, and betting if he checks the brick. But there are tons of awful turn cards and just smooth-calling means I'm going to treat them accordingly and give up the hand in many spots.

Calling is perfectly reasonable, especially at that price, but I'm going to make a case for raising the majority of the time (I have no clue what the exact % is, but if I was Harrington I might say I'd raise 70% and call 30% of the time). The raise to 300 can mean a lot of things, but I tend to think against a random online opponent, it's going to be a feeler bet more often than a set. AKhh and almost any pair in the deck are also likely possibilities. I'm popping it to 800 here usually and calling his allin (albeit probably unhapily by that point). The raise will win the pot a lot of the time by itself, and I believe bottom two is a pretty strong hand against the mentioned range.

If he calls the 500, you're not exactly destined to broke, either. There are so many times (especially early, in a "big" tournament online) when your opponent will call the re-raise and check fold to an allin. Naturally, it's gonna come down to your ability to read his action in relation to the turn.

As for my opponent's range of hands, I'm expecting to see big suited overs and 1-pair hands more often than a set.

Turn
Pot: t770

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t520. BB calls t520.

Jason:This check confused me. I'm actually looking for help here. What does this mean? Could he actually be check raising me with a real hand 2 streets?

My initial thought, and the one I had during the hand, was that this check was a sign that he wanted to show his hand down, but didn't want to inflate the pot. A 9, overpair, or draw fit this bill. I really felt like the draw usually fires the turn, though. Air was also a very good possibility--he could've just been taking a shot at the flop. It's probably a slightly important consideration to get my opponent to fold air here, but not crucial. I was mostly in extracting value out of a hand that could pay me off, and charge for the draw. On the turn, charging for a draw is more effective, providing that I don't think he will CR me and force me to maybe fold the best hand.

I decided to bet but to be honest, had no idea what I was going to do if he CR me 2 streets in a row. I think I might fold or might close my eyes and stick it in. Some people like to be the person shutting out the action with a draw. If he bets and I raise him, and he has a draw, he may not see the river. So many might actually try to CR me here.

This was the most interesting part of the hand for me. I decide to bet my standard 3/4 or so, with no plan if he CR me except to re-evaluate.

Zee Justin:It now looks like the opponent was on a draw. I don't know why people do it, but I often see people check raise small on the flop as if it will give them a free card on the turn even though they are out of position. IMO it's a terrible play, but I see it very often.

It's still possible he has something like TT or A9o, but I'd be pretty confident we have the best hand right now. I don't see the double check raise with a set or the nut str8 very often.

I'd bet 700. Our hand is still very vulnerable, and we can't make it cheap to see the river. I don't like a bigger bet of say, 1000, because that just makes river play awkward and commits us a little more than I would like.

Note that if we bet 700 on the turn and our opponent calls, the pot on the river will be 2190, we will have 2160 behind. If instead we bet 1,000 and the opponent calls, there wil be 2790 in the pot, and we will have 1860 behind. If a scary card comes, say the ten of hearts, and our opponent sets us in on the river, our pot odds will make this a tough hand to get away from. However, if we only bet 700 on the turn, we can easily fold to a pot sized all-in on the river if we think he got there. It's not a huge difference, but you should always be aware of how big the pot size and stack sizes will be on future streets. If you are the one betting, you are in control of these numbers.

If I get checkraised, my whole stack is going in. I just don't see a legit hand double check raising here.

Shaniac:When he checks there is a good chance the he has decided to give up. I still think big suited overs and one-pair hands like 88 are very likely.

His flop check-raise might have been just a lazy feeler bet and once he's seen that he can't shake hero, he's now decided to check-fold. His turn check is an unconventional line and I guess againt tricky opponnents I'd expect him to have a set of quuens or top two some of the time too.

What am I thinking about? Is he a tricky opponent? Is he ready to check-fold? How harmful or helpful would a free card be?

I'd bet 575 and most likely call a check-raise allin, but I'm not really sure.

River
Pot: t1810

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t1640 and is all-in. Villain calls t1640.

Jason:Well, here the turn action comes back to play. I felt like a set or a 2 pair is going to almost always follow through on turn. I felt like a draw that got there will almost always lead the river. The villains timing was not strong, I remember, on the river. I really thought he had a 9 or possibly an overpair. Better 2 pairs were options, and so was a flush. But again, I remember I kept thinking about his strange turn play!

Well, this is the fun bet of the hand. A bet of about 600-800 here will probably be interpreted much stronger than my all in. My goal here is essentially to move in and to get the villain to think I have nuts (huge hand), or air. Generally this bet is going to be interpreted that way. I had respect for the villain, and thought he might look me up with a weak hand if I did this. I certainly thought my AI had more value then a standard value bet. So few players will value bet overpairs, 2 pairs, even sets like this. Almost all will either check behind or bet smaller. I used this against my opponent here, and tried to get him to look me up with a weak hand. I thought a long time about checking, but thought there would be significant value in my bet and that the odds that he checked to me a flush were very small, or at least small enough for me to justify this bet.

Zee Justin:The last thing I want is to have to deal with a check raise on this river, so I'm just checking behind. It felt like he had a draw before, so there's a decent chance he caught his flush on the river. There's also a chance we are ahead here, but it's not worth the risk of a check raise to bet. If he had a one pair hand like A9o, hes not going to pay off very much on this river anyway.

If I did bet, it would be something small like 600. He wouldn't pay off a bet any bigger than that with a hand we are ahead of. However, I don't think we are ahead often enough to make a value bet of 1/3rd of the pot here. Let's take the free showdown, and hope he didn't hit his hearts.

Shaniac:I don't see what's to be gained by betting the river. Unfortunately by this point, you're two pair hand has already been cracked by villain's flush draw, or villain was there already.

The only reason to bet the river would be to get villain to fold a better hand (and it now seems somewhat likely that villain had bottom-two beat already), and that's really not happening, since it's unlikely for hero to have been on the flush draw. Even if hero could represent a flush here, villain will probably pay him off with only hands that beat hero's 2p....I can't imagine any one-pair hand giving hero value on the river.

Showdown

Hero has 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for two pair.
Villain has T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for a pair of tens.

Hero collects t5090 from the pot.

Jason:I think the turn is the key street. A significant portion of the time I will check behind here and call a bet on most rivers or bet if checked to on most rivers. I made the pot big here given my read, and for this hand it worked. I actually thought the villain played this hand well. I trusted him enough to be able to make a big call. I'm not in love with his flop play.

Zee Justin:Overall, I like the way the hand was played up until the river. I would have preferred bigger bets on the flop and turn, but it's not that big of a deal either way. I don't like the push on the river. If he was playing a set or two pair slowly, it's unlikely that he'll decide to fold on this river. He's almost certainly never folding a straight or a flush, so there's not much bluffing value on the river. Therefore, I must assume it's a value push.

I just don't think he's going to call often enough with a worse hand like A9, TT or even something like KQ. I expect him to fold these hands significantly more often than he will pay off a push. Obviously if we are always ahead, there's nothing to lose with a push, but the villian will have us beat every now and then. Most players will bet the river with a flush, but that doesn't mean everyone will. Even though I expect to be beat less than 50% of the time, I imagine we're beat here often enough to make a push -EV.

If I were the villain in this hand:

Often I would reraise TT preflop, but it's not necessarily bad to just call that preflop. So far so good. I like a check raise on the flop, but his check raise was way too small. I'd make it 450 or 500 probably. The spot he put himself in on the turn is ugly. He doesn't have enough information about Jason's hand. I suppose it's fine to think that he has the best hand on the turn still, but a check call puts him in a terrible spot on the river, and a check raise commits too many chips. For those reasons, I'd probably fold the turn even though I thought my hand was probably good. Against a bad abc player, I might call, but Jason is obviously capable of a 3rd barrel as well as thin value bets which makes the river very hard to play. TT has to fold the river. What hand does he put Jason on that TT beats? Is Jason going to play A9o like this? I suppose he might think Jason has a hand like AKo, but he's simply beat far too often to call the river.

Discussion Topics

1) Comments on the panel's thoughts.

2) Overall play by the hero.

3) How did the villain play this hand?

4) Essentially, anything relating to the overall play of the hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

Jason,

Can you try to elaborate on the river push. That's the one part of this hand that still doesn't make sense to me. You talk about your read of the villain. Did you look into his soul? Seriously, what was it about his play that made you think that 1) you're hand was good and 2) he'd call with such a (relatively) weak hand?

When you talk about making a read (in an online game) what factors are you considering?

Thanks.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

I never think like that, but you are right. The push makes more sense. I'm very surprised by Shane's and Zee's river decisions. After the turn action it seems so obvious that you are good here 90% of the time.

Other comments: All three recommeneded betting more on every street than I did. My philosophy is that a more attractive mistake is easier to make. Thus, I make bets that are wrong to call, but not overly so. I think I may be costing myself here. However, Zee seemed to want to blow him out on the turn. I found that stragne. I think a lot of the hands that we want calling (1P hands that think they are good) are going to fold to overbet turns.

I was dissappointed that 2 of the 3 panel check this river. I was also dissappointed that this seemed to be the consensus in the River thread. I hope that posters here will examine the river again. "oh he's got the flush draw!" is just so less likely given A)turn play B) river check C) ODDS! - 1P hands are much more likely than flush draw hands. He has to be both suited, and suited in hearts. It is just so much more likely that he has a pair. You all know that I play 1000s of limit hands every day. When the flush comes on the river, I'm still betting 90% of the time. Why? Well, I look at how they played the hand. If the flop/turn action screams draw, I might not bet it, but if I have 2p, I still do. It is just so much more likely that they have a weaker hand than my 2p than the flush. And yes, there is a difference in my risk in L than in NL, but the math still works. It is a bet. bet bet bet.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

I really can't believe that 2 out of the 3 panelists check the river behind. I think that's much more interesting than jason's decision to push (although that's a good topic by iteself).

My problem with a check behind is that villain's actions up to here make it pretty clear to me that he's not ahead. I think the chances of villain being ahead are completely dwarfed by the chances that villain is behind and calls some kind of a bet.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[ QUOTE ]
Well, this is the fun bet of the hand. A bet of about 600-800 here will probably be interpreted much stronger than my all in. My goal here is essentially to move in and to get the villain to think I have nuts (huge hand), or air. Generally this bet is going to be interpreted that way. I had respect for the villain, and thought he might look me up with a weak hand if I did this. I certainly thought my AI had more value then a standard value bet. So few players will value bet overpairs, 2 pairs, even sets like this. Almost all will either check behind or bet smaller. I used this against my opponent here, and tried to get him to look me up with a weak hand. I thought a long time about checking, but thought there would be significant value in my bet and that the odds that he checked to me a flush were very small, or at least small enough for me to justify this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Simply put. FANTASTIC!

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

1) Comments on the panel's thoughts.

The panel was pretty much in line with my thought process and betting throughout most of the hand (although on the flop I advocated a bet of 75-100 to induce a call or check-raise. I stuck with a call of the small check-raise, and a bet of 500-700 on the turn. On the river I hadn't been able to decipher my opponents holding, and opted to check it down)

2) Overall play by the hero.

I think hero did fine, although I still don't like that push on the river, or any bet for that matter. Villian hasn't defined his hand enough for me to feel comfortable putting my tournament on the line. With the Queen and flush cards out, how often is 10/10 going to pay your push off?

3) How did the villain play this hand?

Villian failed to raise enough on the flop with the check-raise. Perhaps he was scared of a pair bigger than his own. His check-call when the Queen on the turn hits is 50/50, and his call of the river push is terrible)

4) Essentially, anything relating to the overall play of the hand.

I still dislike a bet or push on the river. I don't think you're getting called by worse hands often enough to make the bet valuable, and the risk for losing your entire stack (which still has value) and being eliminated from the tournament are very real here

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shaniac:I don't see what's to be gained by betting the river. Unfortunately by this point, you're two pair hand has already been cracked by villain's flush draw, or villain was there already.

The only reason to bet the river would be to get villain to fold a better hand (and it now seems somewhat likely that villain had bottom-two beat already), and that's really not happening, since it's unlikely for hero to have been on the flush draw. Even if hero could represent a flush here, villain will probably pay him off with only hands that beat hero's 2p....I can't imagine any one-pair hand giving hero value on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Simply put. FANTASTIC!

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Seriously though, just wanted to say thanks to all involved, I think this was the best installment of the series to date.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

I would have never bet that river and I need to take a long deep look at myself for that. Great hand, great analysis. Thanks guys.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

Well done by all.

Thanks Lloyd, Jason, Justin, and Shane.

Not getting full value for my hands at the river is a big leak for me.

I'm not sure I could push this river, although I agree the non-bet on the river is a pretty big green light.

Excellent work all, really enjoyed this one.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[ QUOTE ]
The villains timing was not strong, I remember, on the river. I really thought he had a 9 or possibly an overpair. Better 2 pairs were options, and so was a flush. But again, I remember I kept thinking about his strange turn play!

[/ QUOTE ]

anyone want to elaborate?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

I wouldn't expect too many responses for the next couple of days given the Holiday. I'm waiting for some responses as well as I think there is a TON to learn from this.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[ QUOTE ]
anyone want to elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Small flop CR = I am bluffing or have a big hand (for this board), followed by:
Turn check/call = I am a jackass and my hand tops out at one pair

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anyone want to elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Small flop CR = I am bluffing or have a big hand (for this board), followed by:
Turn check/call = I am a jackass and my hand tops out at one pair

[/ QUOTE ]

or

Turn check/call: I am trapping you and letting you do the betting for me (if Villian reads you as an aggressive player).

Yes, this Villian played like a Donkey, but Villian could have easily played the same with a hand that did beat us. I bet when Hero pushed with 5/7 on that river and got called he thought he was heading for the rail and his stomach turned......until he saw the 10's.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[ QUOTE ]
Turn check/call: I am trapping you and letting you do the betting for me (if Villian reads you as an aggressive player).

[/ QUOTE ]

Give me one hand from a non-donkey that minCR's, check/calls a 975Q board with two hearts to trap a LAG with any two.

There's, like, no way, and while I agree that the push on the river is a bit much it's only because A9 might fold there.

If he *is* a donkey, which the turn check/call basically confirms, he almost never has 2 pair beat on the turn and the sole question is whether the heart makes him fold too much stuff to value bet.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

Why do you think he played this "like a donkey"? [ QUOTE ]
Jason: I actually thought the villain played this hand well. I trusted him enough to be able to make a big call. I'm not in love with his flop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grandnu, I thought your line was weak/tight, lacked acknowledgement of the information received throughout the hand, and is symptomatic of a weak tourney's player approach in that weak tourney players simply don't know how to make the most of their good hands.

Also, (to everyone) divorce yourself of the notion that good players never pay you off when you have the best of it. Good players make tough calls. Yes, they also make big folds, but these are the players willing to "risk their tourney life" if they think their lousy pair is good. I remember from a recent ESPN show "The Best Hand I Ever Played" Doyle calling with Jack-high because he thought Johnny Moss was bluffing a lesser blown str8 draw. The episode also included Howard Lederer calling down Johnny Chan with 33 when Johnny fired on every street.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

excellent hand/commentary

nbet on riv strassa

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think he played this "like a donkey"? [ QUOTE ]
Jason: I actually thought the villain played this hand well. I trusted him enough to be able to make a big call. I'm not in love with his flop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grandnu, I thought your line was weak/tight, lacked acknowledgement of the information received throughout the hand, and is symptomatic of a weak tourney's player approach in that weak tourney players simply don't know how to make the most of their good hands.

Also, (to everyone) divorce yourself of the notion that good players never pay you off when you have the best of it. Good players make tough calls. Yes, they also make big folds, but these are the players willing to "risk their tourney life" if they think their lousy pair is good. I remember from a recent ESPN show "The Best Hand I Ever Played" Doyle calling with Jack-high because he thought Johnny Moss was bluffing a lesser blown str8 draw. The episode also included Howard Lederer calling down Johnny Chan with 33 when Johnny fired on every street.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, villain had an overpair on the flop, which is a really hard hand to fold on all streets but the river here. On the river, he clearly made a big call.

That said, I think villain played this pretty badly. Justin explained why better than I can.

Can you explain why you think the hand was played well, Jason?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[ QUOTE ]
Grandnu, I thought your line was weak/tight, lacked acknowledgement of the information received throughout the hand, and is symptomatic of a weak tourney's player approach in that weak tourney players simply don't know how to make the most of their good hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I was in the same camp as most everyone else in the hand, from what I've read of others posts. We all put Villian on a huge range of hands, some that we beat, some that we didn't.

Villians min-check-raise on the flop and then check on the turn basically confirms his "donkness". But, the danger with donkeys is that they're unpredictable.

I know plenty of them who will call that 500 chip bet on the turn with just a flush draw. And when they hit it on the river, try for a check-raise again.

If Villian had turned over the 6/8 or two hearts on the river, we'd be condemning Hero for his terrible play on the river. I think we're being a bit too results-oriented here.

I still think that our opponents range of hands on the river is too large for us to "value bet". Any bet we make essentially commits us for our remaining chips. With 1800 chips already in the pot, and it's checked to us, we can see if we win a nice pot without putting our tournament at risk.

I still don't believe that the 600 chip bet that some suggested on the river is worth it. Some players said they'd bet 600 and then fold to a check-raise. So they're spending 2,400 chips to win 600 (the 1800 in the pot they'll definetely lose by folding, plus the extra 600 they invested).

And for those who advocated betting 600 with the intention of calling a push, they're risking their remaining chips (around 1600 or so from what I recall) to win another 600 chips from Villian, and possibly be sent out of the tournament.

I think the "value bet" on the river applies more to a limit game, rather than a NL tournament where you can't just reach back into your pocket.

Yes, Hero did very nicely for himself this time. But most of the time someone with 10/10 isn't going to pay off your push, but someone who has you beat will be sending you packing. And Villians range of hands was so large that many of his holdings would have been improved by that river.

Also, may I remind you, that two of the masters went with the river check as well.

I'm all about accumulating chips, but I think the risk:reward ratio for a river bet just isn't +EV in the long run in these situations.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

Very interesting river play here, Jason. I think if it is used at the right time it can be a vital weapon. I wonder, how often would you make this play in similar situations?

Great comments by all the guys on the panel and well put together Lloyd [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

First off, I think this was the most interesting hand that has been studied in this series so far. I did a double take when I saw the push on the river. Personally, I've tried pushing (or overbetting) the river to represent "air" (instead of making a regular size bet) and have had some success with people calling me down. From the flop play of the villain, I interpreted the min-check raise as a sign of weakness; I play on lower buy-in tourneys and see this "strategy" used every once in a while. It seems to almost always indicate weakness, and if you have already determined that the person has no idea what they are doing (relatively speaking of course), then you KNOW they are just trying to get a cheap fold. I would not have guessed such silly playing would be present in a $650 satellite, so with that assumption, my inclination was to play the whole hand scared. Kudos to Jason for his line of reasoning.

I agree that the check on the turn is the biggest clue that the Villain had top pair/overpair <QQ and got scared when the Queen hit. What surprises me is that he would call our bet at that point if he was so scared of the queen. I suppose he was praying that we were on the flush draw. But then he called our all-in on the river after the flush hit, so I guess he thought we either had AK or missed our straight (how he would put us on a straight draw I don't know...). Regardless, villain's thinking in this hand is simply alien to me (I guess (hope!) that's a good thing). Can't wait for the next hand!!!

I will now proceed to grossly misuse this newfound information and spew my chips on the river to a donk who is holding 4 high. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

-Gross

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

If you read that last line of my post, you'll know I am wary of being results oriented.

If I knew how to run fancy Pokerstove analyses I would quote numbers to you, but without them I can only give the highly technical answer that I have the "feeling" that the river push is closer than we think. I agree about the bet of 600 on the river; you have to bet enough to prove to them that you are comitted to the hand. In most cases, it will be a push. Or you check. I don't think it is "wrong" to check here; after all we are going to find out who won and we are still in the tourney if we lost the hand. But some moves just scream donk; min c/r, then check(?!!) the turn? What? If Daniel Negreanu did that to us, we'd be like, aww crap, what is going on?? Versus an unknown player at the beginning of a tourney, is it all that improbable that this isn't classic donkey? I think the times you bust out from going all-in based on a read like this will not be -EV. The key words are "based on a read." No one reads anyone else right 100% of the time, but the best players get the reads right often enough.

I'll stop rambling now.

-Gross

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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I'd bet 700. Our hand is still very vulnerable, and we can't make it cheap to see the river. I don't like a bigger bet of say, 1000, because that just makes river play awkward and commits us a little more than I would like.

Note that if we bet 700 on the turn and our opponent calls, the pot on the river will be 2190, we will have 2160 behind. If instead we bet 1,000 and the opponent calls, there wil be 2790 in the pot, and we will have 1860 behind. If a scary card comes, say the ten of hearts, and our opponent sets us in on the river, our pot odds will make this a tough hand to get away from. However, if we only bet 700 on the turn, we can easily fold to a pot sized all-in on the river if we think he got there. It's not a huge difference, but you should always be aware of how big the pot size and stack sizes will be on future streets. If you are the one betting, you are in control of these numbers.

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I don't know what I was smoking when I came up with these obviously wrong numbers.
If we bet 700, our stack will be 1460, and there will be 2170 in the pot. I'd probably bet around 650 making our effective stack 1510 and having 2070 in the pot, making a 3/4 bet on the river all-in.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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If Villian had turned over the 6/8 or two hearts on the river, we'd be condemning Hero for his terrible play on the river. I think we're being a bit too results-oriented here.

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The results are exactly in line with what they should be. All of the evidence points to a one-pair hand after the turn action. Of course, we were narrowing down his range of hands on every street, but by the end of the turn, you should have a very good feel for where he is. YOU are being "results-oriented" when you look at the responses and say, "2 of the 3 panelists check. Most of the other posters check. 2 out of 3 panelists CAN'T be wrong!"

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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Well done by all.

Thanks Lloyd, Jason, Justin, and Shane.

Not getting full value for my hands at the river is a big leak for me.

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Agreed, the first step in becoming a winning MTT player is to be able to make the tough calls. Understanding when others will do the same, and making it profitable is a much tougher step to take. We all know how to push our edges PF and on the flop, but this is a great example of when there are chips to be had, and I for one would have missed them.

This river is very interesting from a psychological perspective. We have played a tricky hand, things got a little dicey, and feel good to win a nice pot. It is SO easy to want to shut down there. It is a tough hurdle to clear to want to take further risk, when we already have a perceived win in the bank. It feels very different from early street risks, b/c the alternative in those cases is to fold (and lose any chips we have put in).

It has really shown me a lot, very good hand choice Lloyd

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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I would have never bet that river and I need to take a long deep look at myself for that. Great hand, great analysis. Thanks guys.

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Ditto.

Thanks for the great hand and fantastic analysis.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

Awesome, best of the series so far. i still can't decide about the river bet, but i agree w/ all the info we have so far, i can't imagine villain has us beat here nearly ever, so i guess a bet must be good.

Jason, you said his timing wasn't strong.. what'd you mean by that?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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anyone want to elaborate?

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Small flop CR = I am bluffing or have a big hand (for this board), followed by:
Turn check/call = I am a jackass and my hand tops out at one pair

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i guess i wasn't clear. i was curious about this part:

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The villains timing was not strong, I remember, on the river.

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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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i guess i wasn't clear. i was curious about this part:

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The villains timing was not strong, I remember, on the river.

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Online timing tells do exist, are sometimes extremely useful, and every time I see a post say "pay no attention, it might as well be Internet lag" I laugh to myself.

That's all I'm gonna say about it, but most people who 4 table or less already know that and most people who 6+ table are not going to be able to follow the action well enough.

Things to Consider

I still stand by my decision to check on the river, here are a few reasons why.
1) I still don't expect TT to call a shove. Obviously, this player at this point in time did, but given the information I had, I'd expect TT to fold a significant majority of the time
2) TT is pretty high on the list of the range of hands we beat. Does he call with T9? A7? Probably not.
3) It's unlikely, but possible he was slowplaying a hand that had us beat and got scared when the heart fell.
4) He too is scared by the heart, and should be somewhat less likely to call a river bet with the heart there.
5) The truth is that most players don't want to put there entire stack in during level 1 in this tourney with one pair, regardless of the action up to the river.
6) Let's say we only get a call 10% of the time when we are ahead. How often do we have to be ahead for a shove to then be correct? Let's round the numbers and make the river shove pot sized. We then have to be ahead 91% for it to be +cev. Then factor in tournament survival concepts, and the number is > 91% (the facts that the blind levels are 30 minutes, the payout is flat, and Jason is an expert player only makes this number even bigger).
7) Our opponent could have made two pair on the river and been afraid to bet, possibly because of the flush card, or perhaps because he didn't think nines over fours was worth value betting.
8) This is kind of restating #6, but the value of chips we lose when we are wrong is far greater than the value of the chips we win when we are right.

These are just some random thoughts I had about the hand that I wanted to make sure everyone was considering. I imagine some people haven't thought of many of these things yet in regards to thsi hand.

Why I agree with the push on river decision:
1) The opponents line on this board where numerous cards can kill his action is almost never a hand better than an overpair, all better hands reraise to try to get money in earlier.
2) A push is less suspicious then a bet like 750-650 in this spot because a person might be trying to bluff the heart on the river and percieved weakness from the opponent. The player with TT KNOWS he played the hand weak, and is more likely to look you up with a similar holding.

well, a bet of 700 or so could just look like a bluff in which you just don't want to commit yourself. I wonder what effect it would have. I wonder what % of people call the push vs. call the 700. Do more or less people call the push? Do enough players call the push vs. the bet to make it more +EV? I know that bugstud does this a lot. The over push.

Re: Things to Consider

for what it's worth, i agree with these points as i told strass before the results were posted. i would consider betting the river but would probably check and i think this is the correct play in general (and i do not like to miss value bets). if i did decide to bet it would be small enough where i could leave myself room to fold to a check-raise. of course, i would only make this bet if i was very confident that the player was not tricky enough to check-raise bluff me.

i am not sold that all but a tiny minority of players are more likely to call a bigger bet than a smaller one with a medium-strength hand. yeah, fine, all-in may look more like a bluff, but you still have to risk more to call it. in general i think it takes a strong player to truly be more willing to call off their whole stack than a smallish bet in this situation, and in an online tournament (a satellite no less) i just don't think you will run into this player often enough for the play to be correct. yeah, do it against matusow at the final table, but not here.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

Wow! Awesome analysis by all three masters.

I check behind 100% of the time on the river too. So, Jason's river all in is the most interesting part of the hand for me. I see his (very advanced) reasoning, but if this hand was played out 100 different times w/ different Villain hole cards I'm not sure it's a winner for Jason. I could see Villain checking w/ the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] thinking that's the only way he could win more chips after the river card.

Anyway I really enjoyed reading the analyses of this hand.

Best,

Tex

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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The results are exactly in line with what they should be. All of the evidence points to a one-pair hand after the turn action. Of course, we were narrowing down his range of hands on every street, but by the end of the turn, you should have a very good feel for where he is. YOU are being "results-oriented" when you look at the responses and say, "2 of the 3 panelists check. Most of the other posters check. 2 out of 3 panelists CAN'T be wrong!"

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Alright, fine, all the evidence points to a one pair hand. The evidence couldn't possibly point to a pair + draw, right?

There's just no way that Villian could be on:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Negranue would play this hand)
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Given that Villian does happen to be a donk, it is completely plausible that any of the above could be his holdings. Plenty of the donks will call with incorrect odds to hit their flush on the river (regardless of whether they have a pair or not).

And while many of them would bet their flush on the river, this is one who min check-raised us on the flop and check-called a large bet out of position on the river. Since he plays incorrectly, it's possible that he'd play his made flush incorrectly by checking to us on the river as well.

When the majority of 2+2'ers advocate for the river check, and when 2 out of 3 of the "masters" on the panel also check, I would think that the majority rules here.

Just because Hero was correct about Villian this time does not mean he'll be right in this spot everytime. How often do you honestly believe you'll be paid off by 10's on this river? As opposed to how often you'll be spewing chips and sent packing?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

zzzz.... he bets river almost 100% with a flush. Majority rules in poker lol.... what a joke.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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zzzz.... he bets river almost 100% with a flush. Majority rules in poker lol.... what a joke.

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Once again, you're applying our own logic and reasoning as if everyone is going to play like we do. Not all donks are going to "value bet" their made flush on the river, they don't think or play like we do.

He played his pocket 10's horribly, and quite unlike an experienced player would have. So how can you say with 100% certainty that he would have played his made flush on the river correctly? What a joke! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

p.s. Don't use "lol". That just makes you look like you still use AOL, which should have died back in 1995

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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So how can you say with 100% certainty that he would have played his made flush on the river correctly?

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Firstly, there is a difference between 'correctly' and the line I expect my opponent to take in a hand.
Ofcourse it is not 100% certain that he doesnt have a flush. However, ive made money in poker making good guesses, and my guess is that he almost definitely does not have a flush, and that is good enough for me to stick my chips in here.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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[ QUOTE ]
So how can you say with 100% certainty that he would have played his made flush on the river correctly?

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Firstly, there is a difference between 'correctly' and the line I expect my opponent to take in a hand.
Ofcourse it is not 100% certain that he doesnt have a flush. However, ive made money in poker making good guesses, and my guess is that he almost definitely does not have a flush, and that is good enough for me to stick my chips in here.

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My thinking is this:

Most of the time your opponent is not going to call your 500+ chip bet on the turn with 10/10, right? And most of the time they aren't going to call your river push with that hand when the flush arrives and there's a Queen on board as well.

As such, most of the time your bet on the river will fail to earn you any additional chips, but it will cost you your tournament life when you are beat.

Again, you're risking way too many chips with a river bet for such a small return (risking 2400 chips to win another 600 if you bet 600 and plan to fold to a push, and risking 1600 chips to win another 600 if you bet and plan to call a check-push by your opponent).

Congrats for your strong read here, but I think in the long run this play is -EV and will only cost you chips, not win you additional ones.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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your tournament life

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1)if everyone that used that term would forget it existed I would appreciate it

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Again, you're risking way too many chips with a river bet for such a small return (risking 2400 chips to win another 600 if you bet 600 and plan to fold to a push

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2)if he will not bluff CR (and most won't), you are not risking 2400 to win 600, you're risking 600 to win 600

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

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your tournament life

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1)if everyone that used that term would forget it existed I would appreciate it

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I was gonna say the same exact thing but didn't cause id just sound like an ass.