Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

This is Part 2 of Play a Hand with the Masters #3. If you haven't already responded to Part 1 you should do so first.

Setup
$650 PokerStars Qualifier for the PokerStars Carribean Adventure (PCA)
9-Handed
Blinds 10/20
Hero is Strassa
No reads on villain

Stacks
Hero (CO) t2540
BB t3245

Pre-Flop
All fold to hero who has 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t80. Button and SB fold. BB calls t60.

Flop
Pot: t170

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t140. BB raises to t300. Action is on the hero.

Flop (Post Check-Raise) Questions


1) Do you fold, call, or raise (and why)? If you raise, to what amount? Putting aside a fold for the time being, there are certainly merits to both calling and raising so please spend some time on your thought process here.

2) His range of possible hands is obviously pretty huge but if you care to speculate feel free?

3) If you call or raise and he calls, do you have a plan for future streets?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

I'd call, then possibly raise a safe turn card depending on his bet size.

Raising is ugly here I think, as he pretty much folds everything we are beating, and jams with what we are losing to, and maybe a big draw.

I sort of wrote my thoughts on this in the first post.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) Do you fold, call, or raise (and why)? If you raise, to what amount? Putting aside a fold for the time being, there are certainly merits to both calling and raising so please spend some time on your thought process here.

2) His range of possible hands is obviously pretty huge but if you care to speculate feel free?

3) If you call or raise and he calls, do you have a plan for future streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Call, basically because I think if we raise TT can fold a fold. It may increase variance because you are letting semibluffing villains draw, but I think it also allows you to get away from a dangerous turn card.

2) Can't really put him on a hand yet. He's check-minraised (basically) on a board that looks like it missed AK. He has two cards.

3) [If he bets,] I'm pushing any blank turn, and making decisions based on his bet size on non-blank turns. [If he doesn't bet, I'm betting something like 1/2-2/3 pot.]

edit: noticed pot size, my answer to number 3 was a bit silly.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

I had a raise plan. It was call and riase most turns. The reason is that I think we can get him to make a bigger mistake on the turn and also find out if we are counterfeited or the flush draw shows up.

hand range: 89-A9, 55-TT, [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A5-A8, T8, J8, 86? 87,67,56.

Turn plan on a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 9 is to fold a 9, call a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. 8 or 6? Geez, I don't know. i think I raise 8 or 6.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

Raising here is total spewing. I'm calling.

I plan on 2/3 potting it if checked to on any nice turn (low rag, paint card, 7 or 5). It really looks like he's either got top pair here or a low pp, also a possibility is just a fd or fd with the overcards. He likely put you on big cards or a high pp so he's trying to define your hand range.

In just calling the flop, you further mask your hand and ring off alarm bells to villain, so you'll probably get to the river free and press where you want to.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]

3) I'm pushing any blank turn, and making decisions based on his bet size on non-blank turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

750 in the pot, and you will push 2200 into it on the turn on a "blank"???? Is an A a blank? 6? 8? T? K?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

3) I'm pushing any blank turn, and making decisions based on his bet size on non-blank turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

750 in the pot, and you will push 2200 into it on the turn on a "blank"???? Is an A a blank? 6? 8? T? K?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the villain pots it, it won't be a overbet.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

3) I'm pushing any blank turn, and making decisions based on his bet size on non-blank turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

750 in the pot, and you will push 2200 into it on the turn on a "blank"???? Is an A a blank? 6? 8? T? K?

[/ QUOTE ]

a) i edited, i meant if villian bet out on a blank turn.

b) a/k are blanks in my book, 6/8/T are not.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

I'm calling and raising on the turn

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

1) I am re-raising him here, t500 more to t800. The reason for this hand is because, once again, its hard for him to put me on such a hand, and this could get him to commit with a hand like A9o. The biggest reason is because I want to simplify things after the flop. I dont want to have to worry about dodging cards If I flat call. I dont want to play any guessing games. By re-raising here, I am commiting myself, but I am also commiting him just about to calling off the rest of my chips. If I flat call here, and the turn is an awful card, I might have to release the hand when my hand might be good at that point. (due mainly to being out of position) I am also comfortable taking the pot at this point.

2) Too wide to even attempt to say. He could have a set, a straight, two hearts, an under pair, overcards, TPTK, TPWK, middle pair. We could go on and on. I think the most likley hand he could have is top pair with a decent kicker, or a draw.
3) Yes, sticking my money in on the turn.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

I call and raise the turn.
Tough to put him on a hand, but my guess is he's trying to bluff c/r a c-bet that likely missed this flop, or he has some sort of combo hand -- SCs 45 - TJ with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], two heart overs, or a pp 22-44, 66, 88.

If villain fires on a blank turn, which I think is anything T-A no heart, or a 5 or 7, I'm raising the pot. If he checks a blank turn, I'm firing for about 500, and if the turn is a scare, I'm reacting to his action.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) Do you fold, call, or raise (and why)? If you raise, to what amount? Putting aside a fold for the time being, there are certainly merits to both calling and raising so please spend some time on your thought process here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling is our best option. We maintain position on our opponent on future streets. In addition, if our opponent does have our hand currently beat, we're going to get called or pushed against if we raise.

I wish our opponent had raised us more here. His raise could mean any number of the following:

1. I don't have anything, but I don't think this flop hit you either, let's see if I can steal it from you.

2. I hit a piece of this flop (perhaps top pair, perhaps a pair and straight or flush draw, etc.) Do you have an overpair?

3. I flopped the straight and I'm trying to induce you to overplay an overpair or get upset at my small raise and come back over the top of me.

4. I flopped a flush draw and pair and I'm willing to go to the felt with it, but I'm also hoping my small raise will slow you down on future streets and allow me to catch up if I'm behind.

5. I hit my set and I'm hoping you overplay an overpair or flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
2) His range of possible hands is obviously pretty huge but if you care to speculate feel free?

[/ QUOTE ]

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He could also have 5/5 or 7/7, although much less likely given our cards.

[ QUOTE ]
3) If you call or raise and he calls, do you have a plan for future streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Luckily we'll have position on future streets, forcing our opponent to make the first move. Depending on what cards fall, we can proceed from there. There's such a wide range of hands our opponent could potentially have here though, that we should proceed with caution and not get overzealous with our hand.

It's unlikely that he puts us on two pair at this point, so our hand is well disguised. But, what is he putting us on? Is he trying to steal from us, does he believe we missed the flop, etc. This is going to prove reasonably difficult and interesting.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

I flat call and play a turn, you cant reraise here and fold to a push cause he will push a good draw here quite often and he will also raise a made hand both better and occasionally worse than yours.

I really think flat calling is the only viable option, you also get the added benefit of winning the pot versus a better hand often times when the turn is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or whatnot.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

without going into too great detail (because I covered this in my post in the previous thread), I say Hero should re-raise here for two reasons:
1) His hand is so well disguised here due to the pf action that the villain can easily be on any number of inferior hands
2) The high possibility of running into a scare card on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I flat call and play a turn, you cant reraise here and fold to a push cause he will push a good draw here quite often and he will also raise a made hand both better and occasionally worse than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand. Are you saying you can't raise because more often than not that will lead to a situation where you are all in with the best hand?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
without going into too great detail (because I covered this in my post in the previous thread), I say Hero should re-raise here for two reasons:
1) His hand is so well disguised here due to the pf action that the villain can easily be on any number of inferior hands
2) The high possibility of running into a scare card on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I flat call and play a turn, you cant reraise here and fold to a push cause he will push a good draw here quite often and he will also raise a made hand both better and occasionally worse than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand. Are you saying you can't raise because more often than not that will lead to a situation where you are all in with the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the idea is that you are letting villian get away from worse hands that are drawing thin, you are letting him take control with worse hands with strong draws, and you are letting him get allin with you when he has a better hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

Right. But my question is why is it assumed that Hero would fold to a push. I don't think we can assume that the villain is mini raising here with a set or straight, not on such a draw happy board.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

His raise is suspect. It's either a bluff or the nuts 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Maybe 99 but I wouldn't play it that way. It could also be a weak hand that is trying to see if you were on a total bluff. I never play a hand this way, so it's hard for me to speculate. He's giving us odds to draw to so many hands even if he had any of the above hands. More than anything, it means that he's a donk. So I would be willing to play deeper into the hand against him. But for now, I'd call. Gotta goto bed. But I'll speculate some more tomorrow.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

(without looking)

Villain's raise is oddly small, but it's tough to know what that means, so I just hope that either I won't need to interpret it, or I'll be able to interpret it once I get more information.

For now, I think he's on a very wide range. It's basically any draw and any pair that he would've called with preflop. I think it's something like A8h-AJh+, 55-JJ, KTh+, JT, QTh+, 67s, 78s, 89s, 9Ts, K9, A9.

Against this range, we've got 66% equity. My original thought was to take the turn because I thought it would clarify things, but after looking at some turn cards, I no longer like that option (Equity after certain turns: 2h- 65%, 2c- 77%, 9d- 35%, Th- 55%, Ac- 68%). My problem is that the only really easy river cards to play are offsuit 2s, 3s, 4s, and Js, and our opponent gets off easy on his draws when we call the flop and bet the turn here.

So, I favor a reraise here, and given the texture of the flop, the fact that we're still pretty deep, and the fact that I really don't see getting away from this hand right now, I make it a pretty big one. I make it 900.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

so u 3bet and call a push? thats terrible with stacks this deep.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

Fold. It's not because I think he has the best hand. To me, the small check-raise suggests a strong draw, an over-pair, or a complete bluff.

At this point, I only see two options: push all-in or fold.
And while I suspect I have the best hand, it could be quite vulnerable to a heart or even an overcard. The chance that an all-in will get villian to fold or call with a draw is outweighed by the possiblity of getting outdrawn.

At this early stage of the tournament, the most important thing I can do is to survive. I just don't see the point in putting everything at risk on this one hand, even if we have the best hand right now. If villian has a heart draw, there is about a one-in-three chance that this will be the last hand. If villian has an overpair, there is at least a one-in-four chance that this will be our last hand. I'm not willing to take that risk so early in the tournament.

Of course, there is a time and place to gamble. I just don't believe this is one of those times.

That said, I can't wait to find out that villian has 72 off-suit. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

After all, what do I know?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

Is that a somewhat clever gimmick account?

edit: irony = mispelling clever

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is that a somewhat clever gimmick account?

[/ QUOTE ]

Alas, no. It's my one and only 2+2 account.

Long time lurker with nothing substantial to contribute (and now you see why)

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

alright, i was asking if it was a gimmick not cause i wanted to make fuun of you, just i didnt want to type up a response if it was a joke.

[ QUOTE ]
To me, the small check-raise suggests a strong draw, an over-pair, or a complete bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet! What is bad about this scenario? We are ahead, and we have position.


[ QUOTE ]
At this point, I only see two options: push all-in or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Push will get some hands we beat (one pair hands mediocre draws maybe an overpair) to fold. Which isn't the worst thing in the world, but we'd rather have them in there heads up with us, giving us more chips. Also, hands taht beat us, will call, so there arent really any positives.

And folding, ,you said the hands you put the guy on, and we're ahead of them, why would we fold?

[ QUOTE ]
it could be quite vulnerable to a heart or even an overcard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well we get to see what he does on the future streets, we can make more decision when the heart comes, or the turn blanks. And we can't be playing scared of 'an overcard' if he's drawing to 3 outs we should fold?

[ QUOTE ]
At this early stage of the tournament, the most important thing I can do is to survive. I just don't see the point in putting everything at risk on this one hand, even if we have the best hand right now. If villian has a heart draw, there is about a one-in-three chance that this will be the last hand. If villian has an overpair, there is at least a one-in-four chance that this will be our last hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

AKA. ~75% of time we'll have double up. That's awesome and we'll be in great shape for a while. This isn't a gamble, Villain is the one 'gambling' here, we're just getting value out of our hands. If we don't do this where do you draw the line?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

1) I'm inclined to fold. I'm not married to bottom two pair. I'm behind to a zillion things for which I would need one of my four outs to a full house, and if he has a set of 99 they aren't really outs. I would not call. My second choice would be to raise to 1000.

2) he has a str8, or overcards or 99 or bigger two pair, or a big flush draw like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

3) plans for future streets at this point would be too speculative.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

No one min raises and expects you to fold. He very clearly expects a call here, so what does that mean?

Well, its a funky way to play a draw, since he's not exactly pricing us out. I mean I'd expect a pop to 4-500 if he were on a draw or something. Possible though, just goofy.

Some weird top pair hand? This could work, though usually with a hand like T9 he'd be raising more on this crazy board especially with so many overs that can fall. He did call a preflop raise so overpairs, big ones especially, make some sense.

Another two pair? A set? This could be ok, but again on this board I'd expect a bigger raise, or just a smooth call. Again its possible but a goofy line.

68 makes sense, but I'm obv not crediting him for the nuts just yet especially with the preflop call out of position. I guess he could also have air and be looking for weakness to pick off on the turn. If he just outright checkraised us it could be seen as a resteal and would create a big pot OOP where he's the clear strong aggressor. Not good.


The hands that make most sense here are fat overpairs, namely KK and AA. But lots of other stuff can fit. In any case, a reraise makes problems and if he has one of these hands, a scare card will slow you BOTH down. And if a blank hits, all the easier to stack him. So as everyone has said I'd call and rasie most turns.

Everett

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]

AKA. ~75% of time we'll have double up. That's awesome and we'll be in great shape for a while. This isn't a gamble, Villain is the one 'gambling' here, we're just getting value out of our hands. If we don't do this where do you draw the line?

[/ QUOTE ]

To say that I play scared is an understatement for sure. And it's one of the many reasons I've never won a tournament (having played my 400th just the other night).

Sure, we beat the hands I put villian on (heart draw, straight draw, an overpair). Notice, I've conveniently neglected the unlikely hands that have us beat or are most likely to win (97, 95, 68, 99, 55, 77, 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and a few I might be missing).

But okay, I call the raise. Then I get horribly confused and usually don't know what to do.

Suppose the turn is a heart and villian goes all-in. Easy muck? Okay, I guess.

Suppose the turn is a heart and villian checks? Check behind? Or make a small bet?

Suppose the turn is the ace of clubs and villian bets the pot? Another easy call? Not for me.

Suppose it's another nine? Then what? If villian makes any bet, I'm worried about being counterfeited.

Suppose the turn is a total blank (deuce of spades, let's say) and villian pushes.

In short, I don't know how to play poker. That's why I like "push or fold". It's one thing having position. It's another thing to know what to do with it. Sadly, I still don't always know.

Your question "where do you draw the line?" is an excellent one. I see your point that this could be an opportunity to double-up. Since I'm a "glass is half-empty" guy, I see it as a way to blow my entire stack.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose the turn is a heart and villian goes all-in. Easy muck? Okay, I guess.

Suppose the turn is a heart and villian checks? Check behind? Or make a small bet?

Suppose the turn is the ace of clubs and villian bets the pot? Another easy call? Not for me.

Suppose it's another nine? Then what? If villian makes any bet, I'm worried about being counterfeited.

Suppose the turn is a total blank (deuce of spades, let's say) and villian pushes.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you think about these situations you could think up a good way to handle each of them. Just don't panis, and think through your options. If situations are hard you don't get better by choosing paths that avoid them, you get better by learning to make the hard decisions better.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
His raise is suspect. It's either a bluff or the nuts 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Maybe 99 but I wouldn't play it that way. It could also be a weak hand that is trying to see if you were on a total bluff. I never play a hand this way, so it's hard for me to speculate. He's giving us odds to draw to so many hands even if he had any of the above hands. More than anything, it means that he's a donk. So I would be willing to play deeper into the hand against him. But for now, I'd call. Gotta goto bed. But I'll speculate some more tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't think he raises A9 here? There are a large number of hands that he doesn't believe he is bluffing with when he raises. True, there are a number of people who make this raise merely to probe whehter or not you want to go any deeper, but most people play their hands. He is trying to define his hand and yours. Let's say you are the villian and you have 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. How would you play this flop? Better yet, what are 3 reasonable flop/turn strategies for playing this hand?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

This is the entire original quote with my comments in black.

[ QUOTE ]
1) I'm inclined to fold. I'm not married to bottom two pair. I'm behind to a zillion things for which I would need one of my four outs to a full house, and if he has a set of 99 they aren't really outs. I would not call. My second choice would be to raise to 1000.
Why are you jumping to monsters? Do you always assume that your villian has the nuts when he raises? You may be behind to a dozen hands, but you are ahead of several hundred. If you were the villian, how would you feel about A9? Would you raise with TT? A two pair hand like this, a hand nearly invisible to your opponent, is a huge opportunity. A wide range of hands actually believe they are ahead right now. Another wide range of hands has a nice draw to the turn and would like to use their outs to give them strength and take it down now.

2) he has a str8, or overcards or 99 or bigger two pair, or a big flush draw like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].We are behind to 99,77,55,86,97,95. That happens to be 36 of a possible 1300 starting hands. And I don't think 95o is very likely.

3) plans for future streets at this point would be too speculative. Can't we assume some things? Isn't it likely that villian will bet regardless? We can have plans for various types of hands. A black 2 adds 12 more hands to be concerned about (and I don't worry much about 92 or 22 at this point). Can't we have a plan for doing something proactive on a black 2 turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]

No one min raises and expects you to fold. He very clearly expects a call here, so what does that mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

You've never raised AJo PF and then folded to a chk/rz on a Q75 board? I am much more often in the postition of the PFR, not the BB caller. I'm not sure I understand his thinking either. If it were me, I'd 2.5 or 3X strassa's raise with a wide range of hands. A smaller raise keeps the pot small so that it is easier to work with on the turn. It also shows considerable strength. It is a bet that says, "I'm fine if you call, but you're not gonna see the turn for cheap." Also, if I am the villian, I'm not going to immediately jump to the conclusion that Strassa has a flush draw. In fact, IF strassa was suited, there is a less than 1 in 4 chance his suit came up. An 8 or a 6? Yeah, I'm a little concerned. But isn't it far more likely Strassa just wiffed with ATo? Little does Strassa know, but I have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He only has 3 outs, and 2 cards are going to be real trouble for him. Yeah, I don't mind if he calls this flop raise.

[ QUOTE ]

The hands that make most sense here are fat overpairs, namely KK and AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this really make sense? Villian has chosen not to raise PF with these hands, but instead flat call and hope you bet the flop so he can chk/rz you? An overpair is possible, but isn't 88-JJ far more likely? You bet 140, he raised 160 to 300. When he raised to 300, the pot-o-meter on Stars showed 280. In one way of thinking, he just bet pot. The other way of thinking is that he min-raised you. He didn't though. He didn't click the auto-button raise, he carefully thought out and typed in 300. This isn't a min-raise.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

I hear a lot of players on this forum (and on poker tables across America) talk about the size of an opponent's bet, and then start to imagine all sorts of reasons for it. "he bet so big becuase it is a COMPLETE bluff." "The min-raise can ONLY mean AA/KK." "That was just a min-raise. He MUST be weak." The truth is that villians come from a variety of backgrounds and poker traditions and the thinking they put into the hand has convinced them that the optimal raise is X. That you would raise to Y if you had their hand, Z if you had something stronger, and X only on a bluff or with the nuts...really doesn't matter to the villian. Don't put too much weight on an opponent's raise/bet amounts until you see them put in several raises of the same size with the same caliber hand. Hell, when I first starting playing, every single one of my bets/raises were exactly the same size (unless I went all-in). Do you have any reason to believe that villian isn't simply making his standard raise? Learn the villian. Don't think that all villians think like you, think alike, or even think at all.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hell, when I first starting playing, every single one of my bets/raises were exactly the same size

[/ QUOTE ]

thats cause your a limit whore.

though, i agree there is too much emphasis on bet size, i dont think this raise to 300 is much different for his hand range than a raise to 500 would have been.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

Paul this is a quote from you post in "FlopA"

[ QUOTE ]
Scenario 1) If he check-raise...This is what I would do if I were him with a flush draw or straight draw or pair with a gut draw. The reason is that as the opponent you have us covered and chips. And if a scare card comes on the turn then I want to be able to make a big enough bet that will scare my opponent into folding even if it doesn't make my hand. So if I were him, I'd probably raise 4-4.5x the size of our bet depending on the size of our bet. If I were him, I'd want us to fear that we're going to have to be ready to go broke.


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If villian had raised to 600-700, you would have called... but he raised to 300 and you want to fold? Does that make sense to you? An opponent who has raised to 700 here will likely push the turn. Will you call that too? All we have to do to get Paul Thomson to pay us off is to bet big? All we have to do to get him to fold is min-raise? Your plan has some flaws. Do you see them? At this point in the hand, this is looking like one of the hands Gigabet is talking about when he talks about stacking your opponent by playing speculative hands early. Flopping two-pair is GOOD. True, there are turns to worry about, but right now I am dancing in my seat. My lure has snagged a bass, all I have to do is reel him in (and avoid the sharks that take the form of 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

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I hear a lot of players on this forum (and on poker tables across America) talk about the size of an opponent's bet, and then start to imagine all sorts of reasons for it. "he bet so big becuase it is a COMPLETE bluff." "The min-raise can ONLY mean AA/KK." "That was just a min-raise. He MUST be weak." The truth is that villians come from a variety of backgrounds and poker traditions and the thinking they put into the hand has convinced them that the optimal raise is X. That you would raise to Y if you had their hand, Z if you had something stronger, and X only on a bluff or with the nuts...really doesn't matter to the villian. Don't put too much weight on an opponent's raise/bet amounts until you see them put in several raises of the same size with the same caliber hand. Hell, when I first starting playing, every single one of my bets/raises were exactly the same size (unless I went all-in). Do you have any reason to believe that villian isn't simply making his standard raise? Learn the villian. Don't think that all villians think like you, think alike, or even think at all.

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In HOH, Harrington jokes about when people ask him to analyze a NL hand and leave out all the numbers. I suspect that a lot of NL poker players forget to think about the numbers at times (or all the time) and think "I'm going to raise" and just leave the amount to their imagination and the slider bar/chips. I'm sure this is much less frequent as stakes increase, but I can't imagine that it completely dies out.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

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thats cause your a limit whore.


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haha, limit teaches a lot about how to pick up on betting patterns. when i play limit, i tend to focus on when a villain is betting, rather than how much. in NL, i should be focusing on the when first and the how much second, but its hard to do so when your imagination is hypothesizing crazy things about bet sizes.
i just realized this after reading CSC's post now.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

Call. It disguises our hand nicely for the coming streets, villains minraise is designed to confuse Hero and make us reveal our hand. Calling hardly tells him anything, Hero could have a hand as weak as A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

For the rest of the hand (but more about that tomorrow) I plan to become a calling station unless stuff like 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] appears on the board. Let him hang himself.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

My original plan was to 3-bet if he check-raises but now I think a call is better. I'm not worried about him bluffing at a dangerous turn card since it will look just as scary to him as to me if I just call.

There's really not a meaningful range to put him on.

I'm raising any safe turn and betting if checked to.

Kirk

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

I"m calling here. I think he has defined his hand as "something decent." I would say top pair, a good flush draw A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or some type of up and down straight draw a set is still semi possible though it is only slightly in the back of my head and I'm not too concerned with it.

I don't want to raise here because I'm now not as confident my hand is best or I don't want him to push a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] because I can't call that.

I have now become more willing to lay this hand down on the turn if a bad card comes. I'm going to try and keep this pot small unless a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits on the turn. I'll call a reasonable bet. If he comes out firing out with a big bet (like <800 or so) I'm willing to fold.

I don't know yet if he is a donk who will go crazy with top pair here. If I had a better idea I would feel better about this hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

1) Do you fold, call, or raise (and why)? If you raise, to what amount? Putting aside a fold for the time being, there are certainly merits to both calling and raising so please spend some time on your thought process here.

I raise to 900. Making it 600 to the opponent.

I really want this hand over now. If the opponent puts us on a big PP, which he very well could if we reraise here, AND STILL gives us action/pushes we are very likely beaten. Yes, there is a slim chance that he'd repush over with A7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. But we don't exactly have this hand crushed. We are beating it, but we aren't crushing it. But because 1/3 or so (guessing) turn or river cards are really ugly. I say put your opponent to the test now.

Fold to a push. (I say this now, but I'm not sure I could actually make the fold...over played high pair might have me calling).

2) His range of possible hands is obviously pretty huge but if you care to speculate feel free?

I think he could make this raise with a bunch of hands we have beat....any pair, any pair + draw, made hand. Consequently, I like my raise to help refine the hand range. "editted to add" The raise also helps avoid the enevitible turn bet from the opponent. And given the nature of the board, there are many many turn cards that will put us in a guessing game for big chuncks of our stack. After all, if we represent an overpair, and he ignores what we tell him, there is a very good chance we are behind. Worst case scenario we fold to a push from a hand like A7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] "end edit"

3) If you call or raise and he calls, do you have a plan for future streets?

If he calls, I hate hate hate it. The reason I hate it is because I feel it will be very difficult to formulate a plan to play the turn correctly. Will he bet to regardless? Will he bet to "price himself" in? Do you let him get a free river if he calls (possibly looking to hit the flush)?

The reason I recommended betting 100 on the flop was that this raise becomes much less substantial. And we don't want to be threatening our stack quite so much with this hand and this board.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
 

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I plan on 2/3 potting it if checked to on any nice turn (low rag, paint card, 7 or 5). It really looks like he's either got top pair here or a low pp, also a possibility is just a fd or fd with the overcards. He likely put you on big cards or a high pp so he's trying to define your hand range.


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I really doubt your going to get checked to on the turn. You might if the turn is an A and your opponented did have something like 33. But outside this, expect to be bet into on the turn.

Also, if you think your opponent could easily have top pair, then he can very easily have a gut shot draw to go along with that. So I think smooth calling could be more dangerous than you think

Not to mention that I think 1/3 of the time 1 draw or another gets there by the river.