J9s on the river
 

MP is 28/18/2 and seems pretty solid. CO is unknown.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="blue">Hero?</font>

What do you think so far?

What do you do on the river?

Does your answer change against an unknown?


Thanks,
Cartman

Re: J9s on the river
 

Hey Cartman,

I would let this one go on the turn. That said, i'm kind of a postflop nit lately and i'd love to hear otherwise.

If you made it to the river it's b/c you think he's capable of semibluffing/betting too much so i'd call the river since the Q doesn't change much.

Surf

Re: J9s on the river
 

I always like multiway flops with mid pairs because it allows me to fold well on the turn against most anybody. Board's awful drawey so I could be persuaded to call down I guess, but if he's behind and drawing he'll usually have a monster draw, and he's not behind by much.

Re: J9s on the river
 

If you were MP here holding, say, AQ, how would you play the hand?

Re: J9s on the river
 

I fold the turn unless the villian is out of line.

Re: J9s on the river
 

easy fold, normally I'd fold the turn unless the guy plays draws aggressively.

The only hands you were really beating on the flop is KQ or QJ

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you were MP here holding, say, AQ, how would you play the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would typically call the flop raise and fold unimproved on the turn. Is that correct?

Re: J9s on the river
 

I fold this turn also - not only are you unimproved but the 5 pairs the board and eliminates your Js as outs against an overpair.

Re: J9s on the river
 

I generally won't raise the flop; I'll have a look at the turn and decide to check-and-see (sometimes call, sometimes raise, sometimes fold), or donk.

Re: J9s on the river
 

Would you entertain the idea of 3-betting to try and isolate what is possibly a draw?

Re: J9s on the river
 

I mean he won't have a draw 100% of the time, and when he does have a draw 100% of the time it won't be two overcards + flush draw/straight draw every time, but isn't this really expensive for almost no equity, especially if he'll possibly cap for a free card?

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Would you entertain the idea of 3-betting to try and isolate what is possibly a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would entertain it but usually decide against it because, in my experience, the presence of the flop caller in the pot makes it more likely than normal that BB's hand is a pair or better instead of a draw. But I thought it entirely possible that the preflop raiser was doing exactly what you described with a big Ace or even with his own draw. That fact combined with the fact that I was getting a pretty good price to try to improve on the river was the reason for my turn call. The pivotal decision in this hand in my opinion was whether to call or fold on the river. I folded because I thought it very likely that if he had taken his actions to that point with Ace high or a draw that he would have checked behind on the river.

What do you think?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: J9s on the river
 

Cartman,

If he's going to take that line with a draw, he may well bet it on the river to fold out a smallish pair or other draw. Sometimes he'll bet A-hi(not that it makes any sense to bet it) too.

Surf

edit: Again, we may be giving too much credit to our opponent. The "oh, it's hopeless for him to bluff here after i call 2 streets" idea doesn't stop them from doing it.

Re: J9s on the river
 

I would just call the flop and await developments. All you have is MPFK on quite a dangerous board. You don't have the pot equity for a checkraise and there is also a tactical advantage in leaving MP with the initiative because you will act last on the turn.

The turn card creates a trips hazard (it happens, A5 is possible here), creates a second flush draw, and fries some of your outs versus an overpair. I doubt it's worth 2 BB to show this down.

It would be inconsistent to fold the river. You burned this bridge when you called the turn with two outs.

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]

It would be inconsistent to fold the river. You burned this bridge when you called the turn with two outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this but at the same time that Q smacks hit hand range pretty hard. If he 3 bets with KQ or AQ they just made a pair and the JQ draw also got hit.

I don't call the turn but I'm not 100% sure how bad that river fold is.

Re: J9s on the river
 

i think the river is a fold. the turn call is a pretty difficult decision. if you think he has an overpair you are pretty screwed. if you think he has a flush draw is it ace high with a ten? if so you should fold. if you think he has a straight draw with qj then the turn call is great. maybe he has kq diamonds. what ever the case may be i just cant make a case for calling the river bet given his flop three bet. in fact, i think i probably would have folded the turn. but you are a better player than i so i'm sure your reasoning for the turn call may very well be correct and my above reasons for folding wrong.

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]

It would be inconsistent to fold the river. You burned this bridge when you called the turn with two outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't calling for the sole purpose of hitting my two outer. The primary reason for my turn call was to win the pot when he checks behind me on the river with worse hands. I was confident from earlier play between us that this guy wouldn't fire a third barrel here with a hand worse than mine.

For example, lets say that I do have 2 outs when behind. Even if he has 10 outs when I'm ahead, if he never bluffs the river then...

When I'm in front:

10/46 He rivers me and I fold (-1 BB)
36/46 He checks behind and I win (+7.75 BB)


When I'm behind:

2/46 I river him and I win (+8.75 BB))
44/46 I don't improve and fold (-1 BB)


Then if A = the probability that I am ahead on the turn....

EV = A*[(36/46*7.75) + (10/46*-1)] + (1-A)*[(2/46*8.75) + (44/46*-1)]
0 = 5.85A + .576A - .576
A = .0896


So under those assumptions I have to be ahead on the turn around 9% of the time to make calling and folding unimproved if he bets the river +EV.

Re: J9s on the river
 

Cartman,

I don't think it is safe to assume that he will never fire a 3rd barrel with a worse hand.

Surf

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cartman,

I don't think it is safe to assume that he will never fire a 3rd barrel with a worse hand.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]


Against most players I agree, but this guy had checked behind on the river repeatedly with his Ace high and busted draw type hands as well as giving up on the turn heads up and folding to a river bet a few times after raising preflop. That history made me feel like I could trust him more. Also, although I agree that assumption was optimistic, the assumption that he has 10 outs when behind is very pessimistic. The calculation that I presented above is anything but solid and you guys may be right, I was just attempting to demonstrate that the turn and river bet are separate decisions here and that calling the turn in no way makes calling the river imperative. Also, the willingness to fold the river if he fires again does not by definition make the turn call incorrect. This players hand range changes dramatically when he makes that river bet.

Re: J9s on the river
 

Interesting post cartman,

Lets say he bets 10% of the time on the river when he doesn't improve. SO this:


10/46 He rivers me and I fold (-1 BB)
36/46 He checks behind and I win (+7.75 BB)


turns into


14/46 He rivers me and I fold (-1 BB)
32/46 He checks behind and I win (+7.75 BB)





EV = A*[(32/46*7.75) + (14/46*-1)] + (1-A)*[(2/46*8.75) + (44/46*-1)]

EV = A*(5.39+ -0.3) + ......

0 = 5.08A + .576A - .576
0 = 5.656A - .576
A = 0.10

Not much of a difference

Lets say he bets 25% of the time he whiffs on the river:


EV = A*[(27/46*7.75) + (19/46*-1)] + (1-A)*[(2/46*8.75) + (44/46*-1)]

EV = A*(4.54+ -0.41) + ......
EV = 4.13A +.576A - .576
A = 0.122


Odd.... it's like we have a huge buffer. That doesn't seem right. Ugh... I've been up all night so maybe I made a mistake but I can't find one.

Re: J9s on the river
 

I call here.

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was confident from earlier play between us that this guy wouldn't fire a third barrel here with a hand worse than mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please mention things like this in the OP if you want people to take it into account.

I agree that calling the turn and reevaluating has some merit here since he may be pushing a flush or straight draw on the flop and turn. But i think you have to fold the river since it improves a lot of these holdings like QJ AQs KQs.

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]

Please mention things like this in the OP if you want people to take it into account.


[/ QUOTE ]

I intentionally left this out of the original post because wanted a broader discussion on the topic instead of one confined to these specific circumstances. For what it's worth, I think only the decision of whether to call or fold the river is predicated on that specific read.

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd call the river since the Q doesn't change much.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really?

Re: J9s on the river
 

The way the hand plays out I would either fold the turn or go all the way. I forget who said "don't c/r the flop", but unlike that Q9Xr hand we did a while back where the player continuation bet and a passive player called I think this scenario is quite different (you are more likely to have the best hand and, even though your equity is on the low side you still want to take the innitiative OOP and make sure money is going in on two streets until someone stops you).

If you want an opinion on your judgement: I would fold the turn.

Re: J9s on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd call the river since the Q doesn't change much.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. More reading comprehension problems, since villain is a TAG MP raiser suited connectors etc are unlikely and broadway cards have a higher likelihood. I think i'm also mixing up cartman's other post in my head where villain is a 65/35, in which case i would call the river.

I can't tell if you are asking an honest question or being snide? Like i said originally, i'd fold the turn. I'm coming around to cartman's call-turn-fold-river line since if TAG is a rational thinker he'll check through A-hi etc on the river more than your normal 10/20 tard.

Surf

Re: J9s on the river
 

I was being a little snide, but was also curious as to what range you put him on. I'd think the Q would hit him pretty hard, but I don't have many hands at this level and my estimation of such things may be well off-mark.

Re: J9s on the river
 

Fold if he thinks you will call. Does he think you will fold a real hand?

And what does he think your flop raise meant? Does he know you to be a semibluff raiser or would he be thinking you have at least a pair of nines.

Re: J9s on the river
 

id call down on the turn but when the queen hits its a muckersonisville.