|
i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
Back story:
Two years ago, my mom got diagnosed with cancer (lymphoma). She's been a huge American Idol fan since the show started. I've got a full on home theater. Starting two years ago, as a way to spend more time with her, we've started doing "American Idol viewing parties" at my house on my home theater (which has actually been +EV in getting a couple different girls and their friends to my house on a weekly basis, but that's another story). She just started her third bout of chemo this week, and American Idol just last night dropped in to high gear of this year's competition (naming the top twelve). This crossroads means I'm going to be watching every episode of American Idol this year - and have watched every episode so far [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I consider myself an informed opinion in the musical field. In addition to being a longime music fan, I once derrived 100% of my official (non-gambling) income from writing a music column for a newspaper (which was also published in a couple different formats). I also have at my disposal the opinion of my brother who is a music producer / label owner (who watches American Idol with us, mostly at the behest of his live in girlfriend) and of course the fanatical opinions of my moms and a couple other female american idol fans who attend my "party". Last year I was able to identify Carrie Underwood as the eventual winner of American Idol in week one of the competition. Which let me to examine the betting lines this year, and conclude that there are a couple +EV opportunities. Yes, I'm somewhat embarrased to post this, but the degenerate factor of betting on American Idol each week outweighs the loss of my street cred. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] This year, i do not believe the actual winner is as clear cut as last year. However, thanks to Pinnacle's structure, i do believe there are a couple +EV opportunities including an opportunity to setup a long-term arbitrage. So: because I'm a degenerate [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] i'm going to post opinions each week on who i think is going to get kicked off the show. This line is not necessarily significantly +EV in itself (but I will identify when I think it is) but will be posted because I'm going to put some action out each week to make the show even more interesting. But I'm starting this first thread to also call out an opportunity to set up what I believe are significantly +EV long term arbitrage opportunities. Odds to win the whole thing: 3 Ace Young +597 7 Bucky Covington +5000 8 Chris Daughtry +301 9 Katharine McPhee +492 10 Kellie Pickler +1104 12 Elliott Yamin +953 14 Lisa Tucker +1092 17 Mandisa +589 18 Melissa McGhee +6000 19 Kevin Covias +4000 21 Paris Bennett +1057 23 Taylor Hicks +818 I believe that Ace and Mandisa are significantly overvalued. Neither has a 1:6 chance of winning this competition. As such, I believe the following two lines are significantly undervalued compared to their chances to win. But moreso, I believe putting money on them now can setup a significantly +EV arbitrage opportunity down the line. 8 Chris Daughtry +301 9 Katharine McPhee +492 Chris is the odds on favorite to win, and is currently my pick to win it all as well. He has the best "life story" working for him (he's a blue collar auto-industry worker, who gave up his dreams of pursing a music career to marry a single mother with two kids and support her and her kids). He's arguably (according to the couple females aged 24-28 i've discussed this with) the best looking guy. And he's demonstrated an ability to command the stage and to pick excellent songs: he's been picking contemporary rock songs such as Seether and Fuel. Katherine McPhee is currently leading the female contingent. Her mother is a music teacher / vocal instructor. Katherine has the look, she has the poise, and she has an excellent voice and a propensity to pick excellent songs as well. I will be placing the maximum $2k wager on both Chris and Katherine today. I am doing so not just because I believe these will be the final two (and thus the lines themself are +EV), but because I believe doing so will present significant arbitrage opportunities in the future. These lines will shift to the point that once the competition is "heads up" there will be an odds-on favorite to win who will be something like a -150 favorite. I believe the odds are close to 98% that the odds on favorite at the end will be either Chris or Katherine (and its strongly possible that they'll be the final two) which would also present an amazing arbitrage opportunity to lock in a guaranteed profit by placing a small bet on whoever makes it through as the underdog (if its not Chris + Katherine in the final two). I believe Elliot Yamin is significantly undervalued. He has demonstrated consistently that he is the single best male vocalist. And while he has image problems, I believe his stock will significantly rise this next week (the contestents will be doing Stevie Wonder songs, Elliot has already demonstrated an ability to sing Stevie Wonder extremely well). I believe he is a strong favorite to make the final four and will be placing this bet. I also will be placing a smaller bet on Elliot to win outright at +953. I believe he is significantly undervalued at that line, as he has a better than 10% chance to win this competition due to his ability. So, to recap: I am placing the following "to win" bets: $2000 on Chris to win $6002 $2000 on Katherine to win $9840 $500 on Elliot to win $4765 This can obviously be scaled in units if you just want to follow this pick and not the weekly picks: Two units on Chris to win 6.02 units Two units on Katherine to win 9.84 units half unit on Elliot to win 4.765 units Elliot is an outside hedge against Chris or Katherine blowing up, designed to protect the $2k there. This puts forth the following endgame scenarios: I believe all of the below scenarios will be +EV compared to the line that will be available once "heads up" Chris makes it, against someone in the field: 2 units to win +3.52 units (1.76:1). This scenenario will likely present a no-risk aribitrage opportunity if it develops by betting on whoever is "heads up" against Chris as an underdog. Katherine makes it against the field: 2 units at risk to win +7.34 units (3.67:1). This scenenario will likely present a no-risk aribitrage opportunity if it develops by betting on whoever is "heads up" against Katherine as an underdog. Elliot makes it against the field in a tremendous upset: .5 units at risk to win .765 units (1.53:1). I expect this scenario would only create a minor arbitrage opportunity because Elliot would likely be the underdog "heads up". Chris makes it against Katherine: $0 at risk to win +3.52 units (Chris wins) or +7.34 units (Katherine wins). (jackpot scenario) Chris makes it against Elliot: $0 at risk to win +3.52 units (Chris wins) or +.765 units (Elliot wins). Significantly +EV scenario with a zero risk sum on who will likely be the large favorite. Katherine makes it against Elliot: $0 at risk to win +7.34 units (Katherine wins) or +.765 units (Elliot upsets). Significantly +EV scenario with a zero risk sum on who will likely be the large favorite. Last scenario is of course, none of the three make the top two. However, I obviously believe this scenario is exceedingly unlikely. And in the highly unlikely event that one or two of our runners do not make the top four, there will likely be arbitrage opportunities at those later stages based upon our action. Finally, my prediction for getting kicked off next week: 802 Mellissa McGhee +164 (one unit) Mellissa is cute and has a good voice, but I don't expect her throaty voice will match up well with Stevie Wonder this week. I also don't believe Buckie Covengton will match up well with the song choice this week either, but he's got the WT / southern vote which is going to likely keep him around one more week. if you wanted to hedge you could bet both to get kicked off: One unit on Bucky at +220 and one unit on Melissa at +164 which would create a low-risk hedge. I do not believe Kevin Covias will be eliminated next week, his vocal style and tone will match up better with the selected artist. For tracking purposes (yes I'll be tracking my results), i'll be using $100 units here. So I'm placing 20 units on Chris / Katherine to win, 5 units on Elliot to win in an upset, and one unit on Mellissa to get bounced this week. I imagine that Pinny locks down the lines between the show and the judging the next day which is why i'm posting now. If that's not the case, i'll need to re-evaluate my weekly "gets kicked off" pick with the line assuming it moves after the performances. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
The zoo (internet forum) has a long history of making money off this show. WSEX runs a trading forum where you can actually make money each week buying and selling. Also, Elliot has no chance to win. You would have been better set putting something on Taylor who surely will make the final 3.
And why be embarrased to take advantage of an opportunity to make money? |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
In the ~15 minutes since I posted my bet, identified a couple close "insider" friends of the pick (who also posted max units to my knowledge), and then posted this on 2p2, the Katharine McPhee line has fallen significantly to +468 from +492. The recommended play is the same, but I'd recommend making it sooner than later as the line is likely to continue to fall.
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
[ QUOTE ]
Also, Elliot has no chance to win. You would have been better set putting something on Taylor who surely will make the final 3. [/ QUOTE ] A hedge on Taylor is also a way to go. I weighed him heavily, and I believe he will likely make the top four but do not believe his one-dimensionality will carry him to the top two enough to make a worthwhile hedge. Ultimately I also weighed strongly just placing the two bets on Chris and Katherine, which would also be a +EV approach in my opinion. However I believe if anyone has the ability to upset the these two with an appearance in the top two, its actually going to be Elliot coming out of left field with whats by far the best voice in the competition (in my opinion) despite his appearance. But I certainly could be wrong. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Caldarooni, I disagree. Elliot is a great sleeper pick. IMO he is the best overall male singer. On the other hand Taylor is not by any means a shoe in to the final 3, his unique style makes him very hit and miss. He may make it far, but he also might crash and burn early on if the judges give a couple of bad opinions of one of his performances.
Performity, I really like your analysis. I would add that fading Ace to win this thing later on if his odds go up would be a great bet. In Canadian Idol, last season there was a singer very similar to Ace. He was a hearthrob who just didn't have as good of a voice as the others in the final 4. The judges gave him rave reviews through the whole series until he went into the final 4 as a favorite. Then they started criticizing him because it just would of been ridiculous to have a weak singer win that competition. He would up finishing 2nd. The same thing should happen with Ace. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
I saw Elliot Yamin to outlast Ace Young at +152. Given your analysis of the 2 singers, that looks like a good bet, right?
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
[ QUOTE ]
I saw Elliot Yamin to outlast Ace Young at +152. Given your analysis of the 2 singers, that looks like a good bet, right? [/ QUOTE ] Yes I do believe that its a good bet Jedi. I didn't post it specifically because I believe its not significantly +EV (i believe the line is pretty correctly set). however I do believe its a good bet. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Don't be embarrassed. I hit an arbitrage on "Dancing With the Stars"! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
(By the way, Stacy Keibler was ROBBED!) |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Elliot has a very good voice and is a good singer, but does not have a great voice nor is he a great singer. While his story is nice he doesn't seem to have the personality it takes to win AI. Keep in mind, its not just the voice that people vote for - this is one reason why Taylor is a better pick.
I'm not coming from left field either. I have made a substantial amount of money the last two years on this show. I agree that Ace will not win and leaving him out of any arbitrage is key. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
For the record, ultimately I somewhat agree with Caldarooni in that I think the key third person to hedge is going to be EITHER Taylor or Elliot.
However that being said, my money is (obviously) on Elliot for the most likely 3rd place finisher. I could certainly be wrong here. I'm going to run some numbers on hedging Taylor in to the mix as well and see what that does to the scenarios. Ultimately I do not believe that Taylor has any chance to win at all (much as Caldarooni beleives that Elliot cannot win at all), but I do believe there's possiblity he makes it to the top four and a slight slight slight possiblity he makes it to the final two as a result. Let me run some numbers and report back in. Edit: I do believe Elliot has the best male voice in the competition, for what its worth. He and Katherine are neck and neck for best overal vocal, again in my opinion. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Keep in mind the best singers don't always last. Gedeon had a much better voice that both Kevin and Bucky but was booted last night.
Last year, Scott Savol stuck around week after week as support poured in for various reasons (some sites tried to garner votes for the worst contestant, others kept voting for Scott to spite Simon). My point is that just because someone is a clearly a better singer than another contestant does not mean they will last longer than that contestant. This is the key to making money on this show and the fact that many who bet ignore. My main concern about someone like Elliot is that he will not garner enough support to outlast some of the more charasmatic singers like Kellie and Paris. FWIW I think the final 2 are Taylor and Katherine with McPhee being your next American Idol. Chris is certainly a factor, and is the favorite going into the final 12, but there are reasons to doubt he will win this competition. My 2 cents. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
I don't know why anyone has mentioned Paris yet. I believe she and Mandisa has the best female voices, but Paris will outlast Mandisa. Not to be a jerk, but Mandisa is too "big" to make it to the final 3. Paris has the personality, likeability, and great voice, and she will continue to get better each week.
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Ok, I just bet 2 units on Chris +315, Elliot +900 and Katharine +600, I also put 1 unit on Paris at +900 as I agree that she has a good voice and personality and an outside shot to win. It will be better for her if Mandisa is eliminated sooner rather then later.
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Ultimately I believe Paris is too young and immature to win the whole thing. She's going to make a good run though.
Paris is also significantly hurt by her (as of yet) inability to distinguish herself from the other african-american female vocalists. You've got three good black female singers, all of whom really sound pretty similar (very talented vocally one and all). One who won't make the top four just because of her weight, and Paris and Lisa Tucker are going to split significant portions of the vote until one of the two is elminated. If say Lisa Tucker and Mandisa both get bounced early then I think Paris has a shot at the top four. But if Paris, Mandisa and Lisa Tucker all make the top seven or eight they're probably going to get bounced pretty sequentually (in my opinion). |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
Performify,
You are a legend... |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
Don't feel bad, Perf. My wife has never let us miss an episode. If you ever want to reminisce about the good ol' days of Nikko Smith, let us know... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
I just took Bucky to get knocked out this week at +302. We think that he, Melissa, and Kevin are ~ equally likely, but Bucky has the least chance to sing Stevie Wonder well, and the best odds. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Which sportsbook are you getting these lines?
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
How about this line:
Who will last longer? (same elimination day=push) 405 Lisa Tucker -198 406 Paris Bennett +180 I think Paris EASILY lasts longer than Lisa. Am I missing something?? |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Lisa is way more polished, with much more significant stage experience, and I think that's why she's favored.
So far, Paris has certainly beaten her. Question will be if either can distinguish themselves from each other, as they're both pretty similar vocally. Paris has the edge in personality and showmanship (so far) and Lisa should have the edge in poise and experience. I'm not touching this line, personally. But I can see where it looks intriguing. background on Lisa Tucker: [ QUOTE ] Before she went in to her American Idol audition, it was revealed that Lisa Tucker was named as one of Variety Magazine’s Top Ten Kids To Watch. In January and February of 2003, Lisa Tucker competed on Star Search at only 13 years of age. She advanced all the way to the finals of the Junior Singers division, only to lose to a 10 year old named Tiffany Evans. Lisa Tucker was also the original “Young Nala” in Disney’s Los Angeles production of “The Lion King" [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
How much do you think the producers and the judges of this show influence the outcome?
The past winners have covered every major genre except for rock. Will the judges try to coax the public into supporting the rock singer (Chris Daughtry)? So far this season, they have let in more "rockers" than they have in the past, probably due to the success of Bo Bice last year. So if indeed the producers have a major interest in who wins, we should see Chris Daughtry cruising through this competition. Also, it would be interesting to see the demographics of the people calling in to vote on this show. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
I made my bet on Pinny.
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Thanks for the info, I just signed up and placed a few bets. I got Paris lasting longer than Lisa $75 to win 123; Kellie to last longer than Katherine $50 to win $117; Paris will make the final 4 $100 to win $259, and Bucky to get eliminated next week $20 to win 90.
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
yeah, that bucky line moved in your favor alot. i bet him at +302, obviously i think theres ALOT of value at +450...
this whole conversation is just hilarious... |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Yeah, you don't think people are making fun of us, do you?
To save my reputation, I have to say that all of my comments in this thread are actually the thoughts of my wife, who watches the show. I know nothing about it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Easy. Fianl 3 will be
3rd--Kelly Pickler 2nd--Paris 1st--Taylor Hicks Hicks isnt the best singer, but the crowds love him. I would put a lot of money on Hicks |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
um.... no.
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
I agree with a lot of what OP said. However, one thing to be careful of is Kellie. She simply has an enormous fan base already. She is no where close to being the best singer in the competition, but I would bet that she received the most number of votes every week among the girls so far. Her line is always busy when everyone else's calls are going through. But I doubt she will win the whole thing.
Simon, who also supposedly predicted Carrie would win last year, predicted this year that either Chris, Taylor, or Kellie will win this year. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Paris is terrible (ok, a bit exaggerated, but she has sung nothing but crappy songs), and annoying (she bounces around on stage like an idiot and makes ridiculous facial expressions throughout her songs). No shot. I'm guessing in the 6th to 8th range for her. Lisa Tucker outlasts her...gauranteed.
Not that I think she will win, but I think Lisa Tucker is getting WAY overlooked in this whole thing. This chick has a lot of experience, not only in singing competitions, but in being a professional singer. She has poise, and a terrific voice. She has yet to stand out, but I'm guessing she will start picking some "belt-it-out" songs now that the judges have given her advice...just wait and see. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
[ QUOTE ]
Paris is terrible (ok, a bit exaggerated, but she has sung nothing but crappy songs), and annoying (she bounces around on stage like an idiot and makes ridiculous facial expressions throughout her songs). No shot. I'm guessing in the 6th to 8th range for her. Lisa Tucker outlasts her...gauranteed. Not that I think she will win, but I think Lisa Tucker is getting WAY overlooked in this whole thing. This chick has a lot of experience, not only in singing competitions, but in being a professional singer. She has poise, and a terrific voice. She has yet to stand out, but I'm guessing she will start picking some "belt-it-out" songs now that the judges have given her advice...just wait and see. [/ QUOTE ] Lisa Tucker is very boring. The average viewer will not enjoy her as much as they'd enjoy Paris, simply because of their personalities. Neither wins, but I do think Paris will last longer and that's why I put some money down on that prop. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
I am embrassed that I read this entire thread. 2 minutes of my life were wasted [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
craig |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
It's o.k., you can come out and not be asamed. Over 30 million people watch it every week, and I'm sure that they're not all teenage girls. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
I hate reality/competition TV shows. My wife makes me watch some really bad ones also. When they are on I feel myself getting more stupid. I won't even bet on American Idol. There are sports I will bet on that I couldn't care less about, but I can't imagine having to watch AI in order to handicap it.
craig |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
It just hit me that I actually know the winners from previous years. I hate checkout lines. I really don't care that vince is banging Anniston or that Jessica Simpson cheated on her soon to be (ex??). These magazines let me know about things I don't want to know about (exception check out stnad magazine: Weely World News).
craig |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
[ QUOTE ]
I hate reality/competition TV shows. My wife makes me watch some really bad ones also. When they are on I feel myself getting more stupid. I won't even bet on American Idol. There are sports I will bet on that I couldn't care less about, but I can't imagine having to watch AI in order to handicap it. craig [/ QUOTE ] You're missing a golden opportunity to "take one for the team" by watching one of your wife/gf's show and still make some cash [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] And after 3 years I have to admit I like the show [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I hate reality/competition TV shows. My wife makes me watch some really bad ones also. When they are on I feel myself getting more stupid. I won't even bet on American Idol. There are sports I will bet on that I couldn't care less about, but I can't imagine having to watch AI in order to handicap it. craig [/ QUOTE ] You're missing a golden opportunity to "take one for the team" by watching one of your wife/gf's show and still make some cash [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] And after 3 years I have to admit I like the show [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I have to watch Bravo. I could be on Project Runway if they offered it. I could also bet on UPN's Next Top Model. I really can't stand those shows. "Reality" TV is just not my thing. If they had a "Survivor: Suicide" I would be on that show. The contestants would be couples and the female would force the male to watch the above shows over and over again. The person who doesn't kill themself is the winner of 1M. Though, first place is killing yourself during the first episode. Seriously though. My wife is 14 weeks from having a baby and I am not going to argue with her about me not wanting to watch it. So, instead we place bets on who will be kicked off next. craig |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
[ QUOTE ]
And after 3 years I have to admit I like the show [/ QUOTE ] Also, you don't really like the show. It is pretty much your crack. I bet when the show isn't on for a few months you wake up in the middle of the night with cold sweats and scream, "No Paula, not him. Clay Aiken is a musical genius." craig |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
do you have a source for that? i havent seen/heard this anywhere...
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
Hard for me to imagine anyone "enjoying" Paris. I mean, Carrie Underwood is boring as hell, but she had poise, and sang her ass off. Lisa Tucker is similar, minus the country.
I also think Lisa Tucker has personality, but just hasn't shown it yet...we'll see. Paris irritates. I just can't believe people enjoy that [censored] personality, and stupid facial expressions. But, dont worry. When Paris gets knocked out first, I'll be sure to post a brag in this thread. |
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
I guarantee Paris will at least make the final 4. You can quote me on that. Lisa is o.k.; Chris and Katherine are overrated.
|
Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
[ QUOTE ]
I am embrassed that I read this entire thread. 2 minutes of my life were wasted [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] craig [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Craig you can thank me later when you make some cash off the arbitrage setup by picks |
| All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:02 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.