When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

I'm curious as to what the appropriate action is when your local bookie makes a huge line error. A friend of mine is a local book. Several weeks back, another bookie he knows came out with a mistake on the Steelers-Broncos game, as he had Denver favored by 4 when the Steelers were 4 - 4.5 faves everywhere else. My friend places a big bet on Pittsburgh +4, and after it's accepted, he tells him he should probably look at changing the line. He then bet Denver with another local book (who had the line right) and made a nice middle.

Well I'm looking my local's sheet, and he has the O/U on the SF - Car game @ 42. This is clearly an error since it's 35.5 at most other places. Looks like he mistakenly wrote down the TB - NO o/u twice.

So what's the right play here? Do I hammer the u42 and after he accepts the bet tell him he should probably change the line? (Btw, I think it makes a lot more sense to just bet the under and not try for a middle here. If anyone disagrees I'd like to know why.) Or do I just make the bet and not say anything? And I should probably put this in tonight before someone else notices and he changes it, right?

Fwiw, he's up against me so far this year (don't ask), and I brought him a customer about six weeks back who has been his biggest donator ever (this local book is small time). Also, he never changes the lines he puts out on his sheets, which he makes on Wednesday nights. Previously, I've never seen anything more than 3 points off what he has on his sheet.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

It sounds like he set the perfect template for your correct action here.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Umm... I'd probably just tell him he has an error if you're a big player and going to be hammering his face in for a while. He might actually appreciate the fact that you tell the truth and keep letting you rape him longer.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of dollars.

Should I return it?

For what it's worth, I'm stuck for year.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

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tell him he has an error

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed.

As Dali found out first hand, dealing with locals is a whole different story.

If you want to continue to be able to use his services, make nice. Try to become as friendly with him as possible. You want to become his best customer, helping him balance his books (assuming you're indeed sharp and will generally be on the other side of a lot of his other customers).

Build a relationship. Get to the point that he actually welcomes your action -- or at least tolerates it in some places because it helps him in others.

Is it worth picking off this one line to ruin the relationship?

-P

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

As P alluded to above with the Dali situation, it is almost always a pretty bad idea to start hammering incorrect lines from a local. Make a habit of it and you'll find yourself cut-off at best...

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of dollars.

Should I return it?

For what it's worth, I'm stuck for year.

[/ QUOTE ]

This analogy isn't valid, IMO. It's not like he mistakenly set the o/u at 72. It's at 42. That's only 18.3% off the regular line. I highly doubt most of the people betting through him will even notice anything odd about the o/u. Also, it's not like this bet is completely risk free, even with the extra 6.5 points.

Fwiw I already have a great relationship with him. Also, as I alluded to earlier, I brought him a client that's made him more $$$ the last several weeks than anyone else ever has. And if I do decide to play it, I'm not going to bet it any bigger than my regular big bets. Actually, the more I think about it, I could put in all my plays for the weekend tomorrow morning, play this straight up, include it a parlay or 2, play dumb, and make a comment after my bets are in that the total seems kind of high. This will give him the option to correct the line, and even cancel my bets. On a scale of 1 to 10 how unethical is this?

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
This analogy isn't valid, IMO. It's not like he mistakenly set the o/u at 72. It's at 42.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok then, the wallet doesn't contain thousands. Just a few twenties.

[ QUOTE ]
On a scale of 1 to 10 how unethical is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cash me out. I'm done.

You can't put "unethical" on a 1-10 scale. Only a 0-1 scale, where:

0 = Ethical

1 = Unethical

If you're looking for forgiveness for committing an act that you know is wrong, look elsewhere.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Only 18.3% eh? You sound like a massive square.

Thus, I believe your most +EV play is to pound the errant line, hope you hit one time, and get cut off from this book. This saves you all the $$ you would've lost in the future.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Even if you don't want to be ethical, telling people about mistakes has bigger EV in the long run than not.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Hammer line. Win. Find new bookie.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hammer line. Win. Get stiffed. Find new bookie.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

I wouldn't find the need to correct the bookie.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like he set the perfect template for your correct action here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of SklanskyBucks.

Should I return it?

For what it's worth, I'm stuck for year.

[/ QUOTE ]

This analogy isn't valid, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]


"Fixed" the analogy if you want to be a complete nit.

(not like it wasn't "fixed" before, considering most of us would consider "massively +EV" to be the same thing...)

-P

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

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I wouldn't find the need to correct the bookie.

[/ QUOTE ]

How long do you expect to keep being able to play with him when you take shots at him like this? Or how long he'll stay liquid if he is a big enough idiot to not recognize these errors?

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

maybe he hung a bad line purposefully...either way, he is responsible for what he puts out there. if he is up on you, i wouldn't even sweat it at all. if you routinely bet bad lines he'll probably stop booking your action, but an errant line or two, nah. i've heard guys grumble about typos or clerk error before. they live with it.

dali situation is 180 degrees different, or as Jason Kidd would say, 360 degrees different

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

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How long do you expect to keep being able to play with him when you take shots at him like this? Or how long he'll stay liquid if he is a big enough idiot to not recognize these errors?

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I've never received a wrong line from a bookie but a few years ago he did make several mistakes with time changes. If it was a constant problem I'd worry about his liquidly but it was twice in the same year but the only two errors in over a decade so not a major concern.

I was going to bet both games anyway and missed the time changes myself till I saw the score scroll by. I did increase by bet but not enough that had he noticed it wouldn't have been a major issue. I would have just claimed I missed the time change.

Bowman's had a wrong line and with them I had no issues taking advantage of the mistake. I couldn't get much money on it unfortunately but they did honour the bet.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Henry,

Interesting. From what I gather the OP is a probably a losing sports bettor and brings in other squares. In this case I'd probably take a shot at the line 100% or if I have other outs that were easy to use. (Also, given that he's made another error that was caught by our not totally razor sharp friend makes me wonder about the quality of the bookie) If I planned on staying for a long time, I'd probably go through some elaborate ruse and show him that I don't want to cheat him out of his money.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

If you went from $100 to $5k he'd know you were trying to cheat him but if you just bet your normal amount or within your normal range then I don't think he could say anything.

The problem with using a bookie is that it takes a long time to find one that is good. Someone who is small and making these kind of errors is not going to be around for a long time.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

I'll address a few things here:

-- I expect him to have no problem staying liquid. A large chunk of his clientele are car salesmen, who are notorious for being degenerate gamblers. None of his clients are sharps to the best of my knowledge. He gives out horrible odds on all teasers except for the 2 teamers. And while he often sets some lines poorly, imo, he has excellent bankroll management. He's only been doing this for a few years, but he's never not collected $$$ from losers. Plenty of incidents where they've paid late, but he's always collected. He's very smart about how he does this.

-- I'm not going to get stiffed. I know him pretty well. We've been in the same fantasy football league for like 5 years. My largest play with him for the year has been 4 units. It's not like I'm going to drop 20 units on this play. I'm thinking 4 - 6 max. And he has the right to cancel my bet before kickoff.

-- Up to this point, the worst line I've seen him have was BYU -11 vs. AF, when it closed at -14 I think. I hammered it, was paid, no questions asked. (Not that the bad line mattered in that game anyways). And I know a couple guys who bet AF through him, lol.

-- I literally got him his most profitable client. My friend, who bets much bigger than me, is a Dr. Bob disciple and was sick of the line moves on line, and started using my local through me several weeks ago. I've been collecting from (he just went pretty much busto last week)/and paying him, basicallly doing all the legwork.

-- I've put myself in his shoes, and if I made this mistake and someone bet it, I wouldn't be happy about it, but I would understand that I was responsible. Also, it's not like I've been crushing him all season. This is my first year with him, and if that was the case, then I would almost certainly tell him about the error, because that would be the most +EV move. I'm actually down with him, and I'm not going to break him playing this game (if I win, it's not like this is a sure thing! There's significant risk because I'm not going to middle this.), I'll still be down with him for the year actually.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
Henry,

Interesting. From what I gather the OP is a probably a losing sports bettor and brings in other squares. In this case I'd probably take a shot at the line 100% or if I have other outs that were easy to use. (Also, given that he's made another error that was caught by our not totally razor sharp friend makes me wonder about the quality of the bookie) If I planned on staying for a long time, I'd probably go through some elaborate ruse and show him that I don't want to cheat him out of his money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, lifetime I'm a slight winner over 11 years (mostly due to 3 big winning years, but I have more leaks than the Titantic). This is easily my worst year though.

My basic pattern over the last few years has been the same -- I'll have a good September, as I put in the work and effort to succeed. Then in October the screws start to come loose. I start feeling a little cocky and then I get lazy, sloppy, and occasionally wreckless. I eventually get back to fundamentals, but then I'm gun shy (i.e. like not hammering Arizona +12.5 vs oregon after the line started plummetting despite the vast majority of the public continuing to bet the Ducks) after enduring the rough patch , and then suffer intermittent bouts of tilt mostly due to not capitalizing on +EV situations. I need to start disciplining myself to not make any plays when I don't put in the work.

And you are correct, I brought in his most profitable square.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Carl,

Anyone with half a clue should be able to kick this guy's face in and put him into poverty in a relatively short period of time.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Carl, did I misunderstand your OP? Didn't THIS bookie find a bad line from another bookie, bet it, and then inform him of the bad line? You can't go wrong, or even offend him if you did the same here. In fact, he'd respect you less if you didn't.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Apparently I'm clueless. The vast majority of my plays I've made this year I've had better lines than anywhere available online.

I've basically had 2 horrible weeks this year, 0-8 and 2-7, that have put me in the red for the season (I could try to go 0 - 8 every week the rest of my life and not be able to duplicate that result, lol). The sick thing about that is that in 14 out of the 17 bets, I was getting a line .5 - 2 points better than anywhere I could find online (the other 3 were widely available online).

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
Carl, did I misunderstand your OP? Didn't THIS bookie find a bad line from another bookie, bet it, and then inform him of the bad line? You can't go wrong, or even offend him if you did the same here. In fact, he'd respect you less if you didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's exactly what he did. Which tells me he thinks it's acceptable. I think I'm just going to place the bet then tell him he might want to look at that total because it looks a little high. If he cancels the bet, so be it.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

Carl, don't pay attention to Thremp. He's just a pimply teenager with a big e-penis.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
Apparently I'm clueless. The vast majority of my plays I've made this year I've had better lines than anywhere available online.

I've basically had 2 horrible weeks this year, 0-8 and 2-7, that have put me in the red for the season (I could try to go 0 - 8 every week the rest of my life and not be able to duplicate that result, lol). The sick thing about that is that in 14 out of the 17 bets, I was getting a line .5 - 2 points better than anywhere I could find online (the other 3 were widely available online).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what worries me somewhat. Its incredibly easy to beat a guy like this.

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

the [censored]

I think everyone has to go and retake Sample Size 101

Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
tell him he has an error

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed.

As Dali found out first hand, dealing with locals is a whole different story.

If you want to continue to be able to use his services, make nice. Try to become as friendly with him as possible. You want to become his best customer, helping him balance his books (assuming you're indeed sharp and will generally be on the other side of a lot of his other customers).

Build a relationship. Get to the point that he actually welcomes your action -- or at least tolerates it in some places because it helps him in others.

Is it worth picking off this one line to ruin the relationship?

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

to quote w.c. fields: never give a sucker an even break. your bookie sure as hell wouldn't.