50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

Villain 26/16/1, 150 hands.
Hero 19/17, standard TAG, but particularly active last couple of orbits due to nice run of cards.

Stove tells me our equity against 2p and set hands is 14%, but I don't know if we can narrow his range to that.

Fwiw, I'd usually go a touch more on flop, not sure it makes much difference here.


Thanks.

.............................

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$63.40</font>)
UTG 1 (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
BTN (<font color="#0000cc">$50.40</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$57.80</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$73.69</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#777777">4 folds</font>, BB calls $1.5

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.25, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.15</font>, BB calls $3.15

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($10.55, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $19.5</font>, Hero...

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

Good fold I think.
Its either a bluff/semi bluff combo draw (Kxdd) or he has you beat.
That line of chk/call, chk/raise is invariably very strong. With Villains agg factor, I'd be leaning heavily towards 'you're beat'.
Playing for stacks with 1 pair hands post flop @ 50NL iPoker doesn't normally work out too well.

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

I agree that this is probably a good fold due to the play having such a low aggression factor. Against someone more aggressive I would probably continue. I'm thinking I am behind here to his line. I'm feeling very confident he flopped a set or has some kind of 2 pair.

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

I dont know if I would be folding this, surely he would be raising any set on the flop, and he would reraise KK preflop
so what are you behind here?

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

What about if it is a min-raise?

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

Turn b/f is fine with Baluga and all vs tight-semi-passive villian.

Given the turn card w.r.t flop board, this could be a semi-bluff combo draw like JT or kd xd - he does seem to have low agggr so a combo draws can be discounted a tad -I don't rly trust this stat over this sample though in practice I probably would @ table [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I may call the turn vs a more aggro villian and if the turn card gave a fdraw additional outs but vs this tight -neutral fold is goot. Make a note and if he does it again(esp. if showdown occurs) - I 'tend' to give tight unknowns credit 1st time.

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

4 dollars on flop because drawy and he can think his 66/TT are good. on the turn he can't really have AK (i'd expect a pf 3bet) and i doubt he does this with KQ, even if he has a flush draw to go with it.

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

[ QUOTE ]
4 dollars on flop because drawy and he can think his 66/TT are good. on the turn he can't really have AK (i'd expect a pf 3bet) and i doubt he does this with KQ, even if he has a flush draw to go with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with derosenc (on both pts) -I struggle to find hands that improved from flop-&gt; turn that he'll do this with.

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

Theoretically, this is a fold but I wouldn't make too much of a habit of folding overpairs at 50NL like this. Against this particular opponent who has fairly easy to read stats, this seems like a set most of the time.

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

yeah my view lately (given how passive most people are postflop) is this (speaking to my opponent): if you want action from me, then you have to earn it with some frequency of bluffing. but if you're going to play a passive 1 AF game with a turn c/r % of like 3 over 500 hands, don't expect action when you checkraise the turn.

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

I really don't like a fold here. At 26/16/1 is he calling preflop with a hand like K8 or K9? If he has anything that you are behind I think that you get re raised after your flop bet due to drawish board. The majority of the time I think we are up against a K and/ or a big draw.

We all know the games continue to evolve and the play is ever changing. I think that The c-bet is getting less and less credit every day and the average tightish donk that like to call in position looks at this flop and doesn't think you touched it. So he's calling you not necessarily to float but to see what you do on the turn and/ or if he can catch up with his "two overs". I believe he thinks the K is his "gin" card when he re raises.

I play for stacks after his re raise. FWIW

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

yeah some people will play AK/KQ like this but i just don't think you see that often enough here for a call or shove to be profitable; not at passive 50nl imo.

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

I think the fold is fine here, but I really disagree that this isn't KQs a lot. I agree that it's not KK or AK and I'm fairly doubtful it's a set, but given villains AF, he very well could be smooth calling the flop with a set.

Regardless, I think the best case scenario, you're up against KQs

Re: 50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat
 

I usually fear a lot to get stack-a-donked, because it puts me in hyper-tilt mode; so I maybe fold too much in those situations. So, yeah, with an AF of 1, I'm folding the turn