6th Place in the NFC Cluster[censored]
 

I'm assuming that the Cowboys, Seahawks, Packers, Bucs and Giants all make the playoffs. I'm also assuming this will get bumped mercilessly when one of those teams chokes, but w/e.

The following teams are 5-6 or 6-5
Philly, Washington, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, New Orleans, Arizona.

Philly plays (5-6)
SEA, NYG, @DAL, @NO, BUF

Washington plays (5-6)
BUF, CHI, @NYG, @MIN, DAL

DET plays (6-5)
@MIN, DAL, @SD, KC, @GB

MIN plays (5-6)
DET, @SF, CHI, WAS, @DEN

CHI plays (5-6)
NYG, @WAS, @MIN, GB, NO

NO plays (5-6)
TB, @ATL, ARI, PHI, @CHI

ARI plays (5-6)
CLE,@SEA, @NO, ATL, STL


In order of most likely to least likely to get the spot I think it goes something like this
MIN, NO, PHI, WAS, DET, CHI, ARI

Minny has the easiest schedule and a lot of that schedule is against teams they are competing with. They are playing a bunch of bad QBs and Lesley Frazier's new blitz scheme has caused a of trouble for mediocre QBs Eli Manning Phillip Rivers. Nobody can run the ball on them and with the resurrection coming soon TJax just needs to be replacement level for them to make the playoffs.

New Orleans started slow and is looking more like last year's team, but still worse. They have a relatively easy schedule ahead and they play 4 teams that are in the wildcard hunt. There pass defense is horrendous, but fortunately they get to play some mediocre QBs, especially if Gradowski starts next week for TB.

The main thing preventing Philly from making the playoffs is there schedule they have the hardest schedule of any team in the playoff hunt right now and there QB situation is up in the air, which could be a good thing if AJ Feeley’s performace Sunday has any sort of predicative value, also Brian Westbrook is very injury prone and an injury to him, would crush there playoff chances.

Washington I don't want to touch with a 12 foot pole.

Detroit isn't a good football team they have been very lucky and played a lot of bad teams they have a one game advantage, but in a seven team race that starts meaning a lot less. They can’t run the ball or protect their QB, the only way they make the playoffs is if Calvin Johnson literally becomes Megatron.

Chicago they are very lucky to even be in this race right now it took Devin Hester playing out of his mind and Griese and Grossman constructing last minute drives to get them at 5-6. Their offense is horrible and their defense is a shell of it’s former self and it looks like teams are going to finally stop kicking to Devin Hester, so unless they put Brad Maynard at QB I can’t see them making the playoffs.

Arizona has lost two games to SF they will not make the playoffs.

================

EDIT: subject line. Arizona sucks, hard to argue with you there.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

Pudge714,

Thanks a lot for taking the time to write this all out. You make sports much more enjoyable for the casual fan. I have to be honest though and say that I'm disappointed in your lack of analysis of Washington. Is that due to the Sean Taylor situation or simply because they're such an up and down team? As for me, if you stuck a gun to my head and made me choose I'd probably go with Detroit because of their one game lead and because theres a good chance that Green Bay could have nothing to play for in that last game. Thanks again for this thread.

Love,
Assani

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

Assani,
It's because of Sean Taylor, this might be the homer in me, but I think a complete free for all is much more likely than bonding together and running the table. If he survived and missed the rest of the year it would probably be similar, except they might leap Philly they still have a pretty tough schedule although they could get lucky if Dallas rests there players.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

pudge,

agree completely, i like minny and the aints. i would say it's one of those two probably three times out of four.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

I hope Chicago and the Saints are fighting for the last spot b/c they are playing each other in week 17. It would be like an early start to the playoffs.

I think it'll be Arizona (easy sched) and the Saints (best of this pathetic lot imo) getting in though.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

I think the cowboys and Packers are making the playoffs. I dunno, just a random gut feeling I have.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

GR,
CLE, @SEA and @NO are all games where Arizona will be in underdogs.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

MN is going to get it

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
pudge,

agree completely, i like minny and the aints. i would say it's one of those two probably three times out of four.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 out of 4? 11 games have gone by and these teams are all pretty deadlocked and you think in 5 games 2 of them will distinguish themselves from the rest (AND gain a game on Detroit)? I mean, I agree it's Min>NO>rest, but not to that extent.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
Arizona has lost two games to SF they will not make the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

And they beat Seattle and Pittsburgh. Unless there's a new rule that says anyone who loses to SF twice can't make the playoffs, something I would support 100%

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

I think Vikes get it if they beat DET this weekend and TJack dosnt transform back into crap.


Also this is sweet.
http://i8.tinypic.com/869wb9e.gif

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Cluster[censored]
 

I think the winner of DET @ MIN is the one but who knows.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pudge,

agree completely, i like minny and the aints. i would say it's one of those two probably three times out of four.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 out of 4? 11 games have gone by and these teams are all pretty deadlocked and you think in 5 games 2 of them will distinguish themselves from the rest (AND gain a game on Detroit)? I mean, I agree it's Min>NO>rest, but not to that extent.

[/ QUOTE ]

tell you what, i'll lay my three to your one that i'm right [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

i just think minny beats detroit this weekend and that's enough for them. that accounts for the one game difference, after that minny has a better schedule and is probably a better team, especially with peterson.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
GR,
CLE, @SEA and @NO are all games where Arizona will be in underdogs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think AZ will favored at NO

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
GR,
CLE, @SEA and @NO are all games where Arizona will be in underdogs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think AZ will favored at NO

[/ QUOTE ]

Arizona is a one point favorite over Cleveland this week at almost every book here in Vegas.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
GR,
CLE, @SEA and @NO are all games where Arizona will be in underdogs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think AZ will favored at NO

[/ QUOTE ]

There's pretty much no way this will be the case unless the Cardinals go on an insane run and/or the Saints bomb.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
GR,
CLE, @SEA and @NO are all games where Arizona will be in underdogs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think AZ will favored at NO

[/ QUOTE ]

Arizona is a one point favorite over Cleveland this week at almost every book here in Vegas.

[/ QUOTE ]
Pinny agrees.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pudge,

agree completely, i like minny and the aints. i would say it's one of those two probably three times out of four.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 out of 4? 11 games have gone by and these teams are all pretty deadlocked and you think in 5 games 2 of them will distinguish themselves from the rest (AND gain a game on Detroit)? I mean, I agree it's Min>NO>rest, but not to that extent.

[/ QUOTE ]

tell you what, i'll lay my three to your one that i'm right [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]

If you're serious about this, I'll take you up on that.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
GR,
CLE, @SEA and @NO are all games where Arizona will be in underdogs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that they will likely be dogs, but they are all fairly winnable games. Minny has an easier sched, but I can't see them making the playoffs.

**EDIT TO ADD**

btw, nice thread Pudge.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]

If you're serious about this, I'll take you up on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

you realize i mean 3 dollars right? i am no sports handicapper

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

Don't forget who (so far) would win tiebreakers, which complicates things.

DET: beat MIN, CHI (2x); lost to NYG, ARI, WAS, PHI; 4-5 NFC record

NO: has not lost or beaten any WC contender; 4-3 NFC record

ARI: beat DET; lost to WAS; 3-5 NFC record

MIN: beat CHI; lost to DET, PHI; 3-5 NFC record

WAS: beat ARI, DET; split with PHI; 3-5 NFC record

CHI: beat PHI; lost to DET (2x), MIN; 2-5 NFC record

PHI: beat DET, MIN; lost to CHI; split with WAS; 3-5 NFC record

Detroit is in good shape against its divisional foes, but in horrible shape against pretty much everyone else. They can't afford to end up tied with anyone except Chicago and (probably) Minnesota.

The rest is pretty much a cluster [censored] and will play itself out, as most of the teams play each other.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Cluster[censored]
 

Vikings then Saints looks about right. I really wanted to argue w/ the Saints b/c I think they suck, but the schedule is just too easy.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

Giants have 71.6%
Vikes have 34.5%
Saints have 26.1%
Redksins have 20.1%
Eagles have 18.3%
Cards have 15.4%
Lions have 10.5%
Bears have 7.2%

That is chance at any spot, not specifically the wildcard.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you're serious about this, I'll take you up on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

you realize i mean 3 dollars right? i am no sports handicapper

[/ QUOTE ]

billnye is trying to screw me over.

FO has Minn at 34.5% and NO at 26%, so I'm fairly confident I would be on the +EV side of that bet. Just too many teams to assume one of two of them will take the last spot that often.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Arizona has lost two games to SF they will not make the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

And they beat Seattle and Pittsburgh. Unless there's a new rule that says anyone who loses to SF twice can't make the playoffs, something I would support 100%

[/ QUOTE ]
Ya I was too lazy to write something up, I just think they have a pretty tough schedule and they are one of the worst teams. The only real edge they have is if they can win @Seattle they are back in the divisional race somewhat.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

With Eric Green and Adrian Wilson placed on the IR this week, you can knock AZ down to about 5%.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Clusterfuck
 

Well, they'll be pretty solid favorites in their last two games, home against Atlanta and St. Louis. If they handle their business (you know, like they did with SF), it could possibly only take one win against the other teams, which if good Arizona shows up (they are the streakiest team according to DVOA), they could definitely pull off one of those games.

I definitely think they'll finish ahead of Chicago. Chicago is the worst team out of that bunch and has a tough schedule to boot.

Re: 6th Place in the NFC Cluster[censored]
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that the Cowboys, Seahawks, Packers, Bucs and Giants all make the playoffs. I'm also assuming this will get bumped mercilessly when one of those teams chokes, but w/e.


[/ QUOTE ]

preemptive "the Giants will choke because they're not good to begin with" post.

does 9-7 get them in? because the rest of the schedule looks like 2 to 3 wins max.