river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

villain posts a bunch in ssnl and msnl and plays 1/2 and 2/4. he is superaggressive. running like 22/18.5/6 over 1600 hands in my database. cbets the turn over 40% of the time. w$wsf is 54 (!) over this sample.

i respect his play but he seems to be obsessed with bluffing, especially against me.

we have some history. my position at the time was that he tries to bluff me a ton, and i end up trying to trap him/trying to pick off his bluffs. he probably has me at something like 23/19/3 fwiw.

here's the one largish pot we'd played prior to the hand in question:

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $206.80
Hero (BTN): $642.40
SB: $527.30
BB: $1,004
UTG: $200.20
MP: $524.60

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $50</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $36

Flop: ($104) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $76</font>, Hero calls $76

Turn: ($256) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $136</font>, Hero calls $136

River: ($528) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results: $528 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON $525 (+$263 NET)
SB showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$262 NET)

i'll provide my input for the hand in question in the op this time rather than saving it for after responses.

on the flop, i think my hand is very often good. my read is that the villain (button) will bet the flop a lot with air. once he bets the river, though, i put him on a queen or something like 99, 88.

i felt my play repped 55 and 22 pretty well. fwiw, i would play those hands exactly this way very often against him, and i suspect that he knows that. in addition, he has not caught me trying to bluff him in the past before.

co is running at like 29/13.5/1 over 75 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $200
Hero (BB): $206.25
UTG: $222.90
CO: $178.90
BTN: $263.55

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $6</font>, BTN calls $6, SB folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($19) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $16.80</font>, Hero calls $16.80, CO folds

Turn: ($52.60) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($52.60) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $36</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $112</font>

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

seeing how aggro he is, I'd expect him to bet a Queen on the turn as well most times.

if he folded here you probably had the best hand, I think I'd just call the river.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

don't like it you're repping only sets, but sets that played tricky so that doesn't make it too good, calling is prob fine

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

I just call river. Not much value in a raise.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

i guess it's fine. calling is also fine...i'm trying to think about what better hands could have gotten there on the river.

if he thinks, you'll play a set like this then it's all good. if he thinks your line is suspect and will look u up wiht a Q, then i think ti's bad.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

im not sure i understand your play on the river. are you raising thinking you have the best hand, or are you trying to push him off a weak Q?

seems kinda like you raised for the sake of raising...

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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im not sure i understand your play on the river. are you raising thinking you have the best hand, or are you trying to push him off a weak Q?

seems kinda like you raised for the sake of raising...

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both. we have the best hand alot. but if we don't then given his check on the turn, we'll probably fold him off of a queen.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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seeing how aggro he is, I'd expect him to bet a Queen on the turn as well most times.

if he folded here you probably had the best hand, I think I'd just call the river.

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good point about the queen.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

seems like you can call VERY profitably here.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

i thought this was clear, but the river bet is a pure bluff. he is never calling with worse.

i felt that the vast majority of his range was one-pair hands. some of them beat me, some of them don't. my thinking was that if i called, i'd beat stuff like 99 but get towned by stuff like QJ. however, if i raised, he'd fold his queens, and he'd also fold his 99-type hands, which is obviously not a bad thing (and it'd decrease my green line/blue line gap! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

edit: i'm not disputing that calling might've been profitable. if it was, though, that doesn't mean that raising wasn't better.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

this is pretty sick fly when he calls with 88....but yah i really doubt he's ever folding a queen here

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

if he folded, you had the best hand...

squeeze pre 100%

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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this is pretty sick fly when he calls with 88....but yah i really doubt he's ever folding a queen here

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i'm pretty sure the villain will fold a queen (fwiw, if he doesn't, he loses major gbucks). if i'm not confident that he dumps a queen, i don't even consider making this play.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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if he folded, you had the best hand...

squeeze pre 100%

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great post

edit: do you pay off every time a villain takes a non-standard line? from reading your posts, it seems to me that thinking, trappy tags would have a field day against you.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

If his range is something like KQ,QJ,88,99 and some small percentage of bluffs can we even call profitably here?

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

I like the C/R river for pure metagame purposes, it enhances your tricky image. Also, if hes decent, hes folding most Q's in his range (hard to put him on TPTK, or even good kicker)

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

Really think that if villain is betting a queen here, he's calling a raise. If he uses this line for pot control and draws a reasonable amount of the time, he has to know that his line get's looked up a lot and will be more apt to call your CR.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

Whoever villain is, can you ask him not to make such retardo bet sizes? $16.80? Does he think he's being cute?

Also, I would call river and expect your hand to be good a fair amount. I guess you've been talking to terp too much cause I know this is a spot where he feels like he needs to bluff.

I don't think a queen folds here as much as you want him to. In villain's spot I'd be like "lol, river checkraises from TAGs are bluffs, I HAVE TAWP PAIR, I CAWL." Sure, I'll get owned by tricky trappy TAGs once before I jot down a note that they're capable of playing weird, but they're also owning themselves to a certain degree when they miss value by playing this way (which will happen when trying to trap) and I'll just adjust against them in the future. Kind of a "I'm not really gonna put this 55/5/0.8 player on a bluff until he shows me he can bluff" type of situation.

I also squeeze pre because I love variance. Actually I hate variance but I still think it's super +EV just because your hand is sooper strong and he'll probably try to blow you off more than his fair share of flops. EDIT: Oops, 29/14 opened not button...hrm that makes it closer. Probably still squeeze.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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i thought this was clear, but the river bet is a pure bluff. he is never calling with worse.

i felt that the vast majority of his range was one-pair hands. some of them beat me, some of them don't. my thinking was that if i called, i'd beat stuff like 99 but get towned by stuff like QJ. however, if i raised, he'd fold his queens, and he'd also fold his 99-type hands, which is obviously not a bad thing (and it'd decrease my green line/blue line gap! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

edit: i'm not disputing that calling might've been profitable. if it was, though, that doesn't mean that raising wasn't better.

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I understand your thinking and there's certainly some validity to it. I guess if you're really that confident that he's folding a Q here then the bluff is at least as good if not better than just calling.

I just know that I'm probably not folding any hand I'm value betting with on this river very often (read: never) which I guess would be good for you cause I'd value bet 99 a good bunch of the time.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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I guess you've been talking to terp too much cause I know this is a spot where he feels like he needs to bluff.


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lol at that lagfish. fwiw, i don't even think he loved the river play when i sent him the hand on aim.

about playing trappy: point taken, but if i have a set in this spot, i think check-calling the flop bet and checking the turn is a great line, probably better than cr the flop with the dynamic we had.

about 3betting preflop: whatever, so elementary that i don't consider it worth discussing.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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I just call river. Not much value in a raise.

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Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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about 3betting preflop: whatever, so elementary that i don't consider it worth discussing.

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I think the fact that both myself and ikestoys think you should squeeze here make it worth discussing and prevent it from being "so elementary." I know you want this thread to be about the river but I'm curious as to why you feel that way.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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about 3betting preflop: whatever, so elementary that i don't consider it worth discussing.

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I think the fact that both myself and ikestoys think you should squeeze here make it worth discussing and prevent it from being "so elementary." I know you want this thread to be about the river but I'm curious as to why you feel that way.

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I squeeze and I don't like to squeeze. I hope OP means it's very elementary that he should have done so, but chose not to for some reason.

Edit: The reason is that your hand loses value 3-way and you are reduced to playing for set value only, rather than decent pair value if you get heads-up, plus you just want to take it down pre OOP if you can, of course.

Just call on the river, if anyone's getting pwned by raising there, it's OP not villain.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

With an aggressive image I love your value raise.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

Does villain believe you'd take this line with sets? I think this is important. If you missed your turn c/r, would you lead river or try c/r again?

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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With an aggressive image I love your value raise.

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No way. If he's calling with worse then he's calling with better and the range of worse hands he value bets on the river is way smaller than the range of better hands he value bets on the river.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

I would be greatly shocked if he would bet 88 or 99 here. What do you call the flop w/ that he gets to bet for value with them. If he is betting 88/99 here it is as a bluff. I would doubt that there is anybody who folds a queen here less then 25% of the time and most prob call 50% plus at least. Hes betting bluff or a queen. You beat bluff and can prob call +EV. If you raise as bluff, it is prob only going to be even EV at best. Calling def &gt;&gt;&gt; raising imo.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

Villain is ArmenH isn't he?

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

lol at armenh, let's just say that i would've described him a lot differently.

squeezing pre: i will argue all day that there's not much of an ev difference in 3betting and calling here preflop (i don't want to, i'd rather focus on the river). fwiw, i make both plays sometimes.

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Edit: The reason is that your hand loses value 3-way and you are reduced to playing for set value only, rather than decent pair value if you get heads-up, plus you just want to take it down pre OOP if you can, of course.

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i want to take it down because i can't play for pair value against two guys? is that a joke? i really don't even want to entertain this. let's just say i can very much play it for pair value postflop.

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Does villain believe you'd take this line with sets? I think this is important. If you missed your turn c/r, would you lead river or try c/r again?


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i would do both. i won't discuss my frequencies/logic here for obvious reasons. however, i was confident at the time that the villain would give me enough credit to think that i'd never take a line with air that i wouldn't take with a set. obviously, it's possible that i was wrong, but you can never be sure about this kind of thing.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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let's just say i can very much play it for pair value postflop.

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Out of position against two opponents with a hand that will encounter overcards 70% of the time, that's pretty difficult. Make them skilled opponents that mix up value bets with two- and three-barrels a decent amount of the time and it's hardly a "joke" to say you can't profitably play TT for pair value here. Look what happened in this hand; you've turned TT into a bluff as a result of playing it for pair value.

I'm not necessarily agreeing or disagreeing with a lot of the stuff in this thread because it's fairly close, but you seem to think that a lot of things here are easy decisions when that's simply not true.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

I'm 3-towning preflop 100% of the time as well.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

i was saying that wanting to "take it down" preflop was a joke, but whatever. in any case, i don't really see the preflop discussion going anywhere.

for the purpose of this hand, pretend i have 66 if you want.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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i was saying that wanting to "take it down" preflop was a joke, but whatever. in any case, i don't really see the preflop discussion going anywhere.

for the purpose of this hand, pretend i have 66 if you want.

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66 is totally different though, in that he is going to vb pairs of 9s 8s and maybe even 7s, an he may not think TT/JJ are in your range here based on pre. I think calling is fine on the river, i dont like that diamonds missed.

fwiw i like a flop c/r with a pretty big range here althought i know you hate raising

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
i was saying that wanting to "take it down" preflop was a joke, but whatever. in any case, i don't really see the preflop discussion going anywhere.

for the purpose of this hand, pretend i have 66 if you want.

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66 is a different because sometimes villain is bluffing a hand like 76 or decided to turn 88/99 into a bluff and then you look like a tool if you call.

The same is not true if you have TT.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

For the purpose of discussion we could consider you had A high b/c you're not getting called by anything you beat and I really think he is calling with most Qs. Your hand looks quite a bit like a busted fd. It sounds like there is enough dynamic b/t you and villain that it is tough for all of us to see how your reasoning is correct. This hand in a vacuum looks kinda weird but it could work out well for you down the road against this guy if he did call.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

allin on river. i think it's a good bluff because he probably can't put you on a missed draw after you c/c flop.

shove &gt; fold &gt; call imo. calling seems awful, he probably has a queen a lot.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
allin on river. i think it's a good bluff because he probably can't put you on a missed draw after you c/c flop.

shove &gt; fold &gt; call imo. calling seems awful, he probably has a queen a lot.

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a guy with 6af isnt betting a Q that he cc with pre on the turn against a guy who likes calling him down?

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

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[ QUOTE ]
allin on river. i think it's a good bluff because he probably can't put you on a missed draw after you c/c flop.

shove &gt; fold &gt; call imo. calling seems awful, he probably has a queen a lot.

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a guy with 6af isnt betting a Q that he cc with pre on the turn against a guy who likes calling him down?

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more likely a guy with 6af checks QT rather than checking diamonds.

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

fwiw i was villain in this hand and i b/3b value-shoved the river w/ JJ caus thats how i roll

Re: river bluff vs. 2p2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if he folded, you had the best hand...

squeeze pre 100%

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great post

edit: do you pay off every time a villain takes a non-standard line? from reading your posts, it seems to me that thinking, trappy tags would have a field day against you.

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we aren't playing me, you are playing a 30/10/1, he's not folding a Q

your assholery is excused.