($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

Opp's stats 24/11/2.1 over 260 hands. What to do against the flop check/minraise?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t1455)
Hero (t3320)
SB (t1320)
BB (t880)
UTG (t2040)
UTG+1 (t1360)
MP1 (t1405)
MP2 (t1720)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, SB calls t75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t210) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t140</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t300</font>, Hero ????

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

If I bet the flop, I get it in here.
Checking behind can't be that bad tho, hits lots of his range and you got so many outs.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

I think we need to shove here.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

Decent hand sample and vs a small aggro factor villain: Looks like a lot of strength. I like calling since we're deep.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

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Decent hand sample and vs a small aggro factor villain: Looks like a lot of strength. I like calling since we're deep.

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Our deepness doesn't really matter since SB is not deep.
I really like a checkbehind on the flop,
but as played we get the odds to get it in against some random J.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

I check the flop.
As played it really depends on what villain´s c/r here. Is there a possibility you are ahead (98s,Q9s)? Since I do not think you get him to fold it is close $EV-wise. I call and see a turn.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

Sure it does, we're calling off a smaller % of our stack.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

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Sure it does, we're calling off a smaller % of our stack.

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Well, the "we're deep and thus just call"-argument is usually valid in cases where we can avoid to play for stacks or draw cheaply.
Villain's raise basically commits him.
I don't think we can just call and give him the chance to get out of the hand if we hit.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

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[Villain's raise basically commits him.
I don't think we can just call and give him the chance to get out of the hand if we hit.

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If he is committed he is not letting this go.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

Get out of the hand? He almost certainly has a monster. My deep stack comment has nothing to do with playing for stacks or drawing cheaply because obviously he isn't deep.

We're in position and a)could hit our draw or improve our hand and b)could get a free turn if he slows down.

Shoving is really bad, IMO.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

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[Villain's raise basically commits him.
I don't think we can just call and give him the chance to get out of the hand if we hit.

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If he is committed he is not letting this go.

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If he has a weak J, he might let it go on a bad turn(note that any overcard hits our hand).
Ok, possibly commited was the wrong word, I meant that he's never folding to any flop action.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

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Get out of the hand? He almost certainly has a monster. My deep stack comment has nothing to do with playing for stacks or drawing cheaply because obviously he isn't deep.

We're in position and a)could hit our draw or improve our hand and b)could get a free turn if he slows down.

Shoving is really bad, IMO.

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he will only slow down if we hit.
that's why I shove.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

He's not only slowing down when we hit. A set or JT is not folding &amp; QJ,KJ isn't slowing down on a 9 turn.

Regardless, I think he has a pretty huge hand too often to shove.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

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He's not only slowing down when we hit. A set or JT is not folding &amp; QJ,KJ isn't slowing down on a 9 turn.

Regardless, I think he has a pretty huge hand too often to shove.

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You got it the other way around, there is no card on the turn that slows him down that doesn't hit our hand, assuming he's got a pair of jacks or better.
therefore, freecards won't have lotta value for us(because if he checks, we usually just hit, right?) which makes me still feel shoving &gt; calling, but I'm keen to read more opinions on this one.
it kinda depends on how villain will play something like J9 here, if he checks the turn, calling is prolly better.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

Probably not a card that slows him down period minus an Ace.
I'm confused now, let me think.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

I'm in general not a big fan of calling in SNG's but in this case I think it's the better play!

If consider shoving without a monster hand, I want to have some FE and this is not the case here IMO.

Ohh, and I'm checking behind the flop most of the time...

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

I'm a little confused too. We're definitely getting the odds to draw to our straight here (160 call into a 650 pot is ~4 to 1) if we call. I'm not sure about the shove though. Villain is representing a lot of strength with the c/r, so I feel like we're probably not looking at a weak jack here very often (like J8 or J9 or something). The weakest hand I can put him on is QJo. If he's on QJ/KJ, any two pair (most likely JT - J3 &amp; T3 don't call that often pf, I would guess) or a set (33/TT - JJ repops pf) then our pair outs are no good - at worst, he catches a second pair, otherwise it doesn't help him but we're still behind. AJ seems like the best hand we can be up against, since our pair outs are clean.

So if we shove and he calls every time (maybe not, but just for the sake of argument) we're putting in an additional 1090 for a pot of 1740 with maybe 11 outs (since the Ks &amp; Qs may not be good) and the small chance villain is bluffing and we're already winning. We're getting 1.5:1 pot odds and odds against us are 3:1. That looks like a bad shove to me.

Sence, if I understand what you're saying, you want to shove since if we hit he probably won't call any bets and we'll lose value. But I think we're getting our money in behind here without enough in the pot (or villain's stack) to make it worth it.

Oh, and I definitely like checking the flop behind here - I'd love a free card with this hand.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

if we dont have FE on the flop, as most of you seem to say (hint: this is incorrect, I see no way to make that judgment based on this small raise, people play terribly oop vs the pfr in HU pots), what makes any of you think that hes not firing the turn? The argument for getting a free turn is just as weak, if not weaker than the argument for having absolutely 0 FE on the flop.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

The c/r vs a 2.1 aggro looks pretty strong to me in a SNG. It's not a min-raise so he didn't instaclick it. Not arguing the right play, just I think our FE is pretty close to 0 vs our read.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

villain is pretty low on chips, i really dont think it matters too much if you shove or call here. if he has just shown any tendency to bluff i d definitely shove though.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

I'm also in the cb flop camp, as I think this is the best play by far.
Everything I wrote in this thread is regarding how the hand has been played, obviously after we bet the flop.

Now, after we bet and get raised, you might make a point for just calling because we don't get a fold for a shove often enough.
Let's figure out what he would be raising and fold to a shove.
Random pairs like 66? Some rag T? J9? Prolly that's about it.
He also could just raise for bluff reasons, putting us on overs.

Obviously he isn't often folding if he hit a "good" toppair, like with QJ, KJ, AJ.
JT is also a possibility and never folding to a push.
Also he could hold a set, 33 &amp; TT seem somehow likely, I doubt anyone just flats JJ against a button raise.
Sets will never fold, even if we hit our straight outs, which makes an argument for just an oddscall.

The problem with the hand is that if we just call and he's on a random J, we don't give him the chance to fold(our line looks very strong, raise pf, 3 bet AI flop - he might fold a ragged J or a T, tho I doubt he has a T often here).
And he has to have a J or something less strong pretty often here, just because sets and twopairs are much less likely.

It just feels like if we call, we have to keep the pot small when we hit our six overcard-outs, because we just called because we thought those overs are no good very often.
Now if they are good we don't get much more value because a J won't want to play for stacks(unless he just made 2p) and a weaker hand than a J might even c/f if we hit on the turn.

So of our undiscounted outs 10/14 are overs to the board, and might kill our action, that's why I advocated a shove, thinking we get about ~45% eq against a random J(which is his most likely holding), making this an ok play with already this many chips in the pot.
Obviously for a valid hand analysis we would have to calculate our equity against his range and also count in the cases he raise/folds.
But I don't have time for this right now.

Well, I talked to finnisher a bit about this hand, and he did some math stuff(always good to know scandinavians).
We came to the conclusion that shoving~calling &gt; folding, while shoving is prolly causing huge variance.


Also, OP, pls check behind in the future, allowing me to learn more for my uni tests.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

why is check behind flop the best play by far? i dont think you re gonna get raised a lot here and we fold out all the pp and maybe a ten. if villain was very aggressive we could shove over him if he raises a lot, a nit folds a lot here, so id bet here every time.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

Still not sure what is best, but checking allows us to take the lead vs hands we're behind &amp; still bet the turn vs like Ax &amp; smaller pairs to fold them out.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

I fully expect he'll fire again on a blank turn, where it's possible we'll have to fold. So, I don't hate folding to the flop c/r. And I agree we've probably got some FE here, especially if he thought our pf raise was a steal attempt and is c/r-ing our c-bet light to resteal.

So can we assume you're in favor of the shove here AMT?

Edit: Also, re: checking behind. When we bet to fold out PPs and tens, we've got the wrong goal. We want to hit our draw and have pockets and tens pay us off. If we miss and they check the turn, we can bet there to fold out weak hands or check and keep chasing.

Re: sence about shoving: Looks like the main difference here is you put a lot more weight on the possibility of a weak J than I do here. If we assume a weak J is a big part of his range here, I think the shove is probably good here, I just have a hard time seeing it after the c/r from a pretty tight player.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

I tend not to raise KQ that early, even from the button.
I usually just call.

Post flop: I don't like betting here, any pair can easily check raise you while a free card is gold.

As played: I would flat call his reraise and play in position the rest of the hand.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

not necessarily, i just found that those two arguments didnt seem to work well together. I actually like checking behind on the flop vs aggro opponents, but the reality of it is as played its unlikely that theres a huge difference EV wise between shoving and calling the flop.

The more FE you think you have on the flop, the more you should look into jamming it, and with these stats (Jaqrabbit, these are tight L2 stats? Yikes, I don't want to tell you how tight I am in L2 then, ive never heard of a winning reg like that at this level) I think there is a valid argument for FE and him being on a wideish range, at least including all weak made hands and sometimes air and worse draws.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

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Re: sence about shoving: Looks like the main difference here is you put a lot more weight on the possibility of a weak J than I do here. If we assume a weak J is a big part of his range here, I think the shove is probably good here, I just have a hard time seeing it after the c/r from a pretty tight player.

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yea, basically what AMT said, 24 VPIP is pretty damn loose for me..

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

I'm looking at the 2.1 over a significant sample. You could of checked how often he c/r the flop &amp; it was probably like 1-2 times.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

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Edit: Also, re: checking behind. When we bet to fold out PPs and tens, we've got the wrong goal. We want to hit our draw and have pockets and tens pay us off. If we miss and they check the turn, we can bet there to fold out weak hands or check and keep chasing.



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a lot of these hands will not pay us off anyway (any underpair) and those that are likely to do so (pair and ace if it hits) will pay more if you have bet the flop. against passive players this is a very easy bet as you re almost never worse than 50/50 here and often you are 50/50 and he will lay his hand down.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

Yeah, I'm not that great at reading PT stats, so I might be a wee bit confused on how tight that is. Also, wasn't considering the level of the tournament there.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

There's a 36 reg on ftp named Tillama I think who's quite a large winning player who is like 37/20 filtered for 8-9 handed. Some ppl can make it work apparently.

Re: ($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs
 

You can't shove against someone with those stats. You have no fold equity and the check-raise is huge. Flop c-bet is fine, he check-folds a lot (often ahead) and check-calls almost everything else, letting you take the free river card. If you check the flop, you invite him to get tricky on the turn and he could bet you out of the pot with a hand he would have folded to the c-bet.