Gross spot with 9\'s
 

Need an opinion on a 3/6 hand, live game. Game is quite loose (5-6 limpers on average), but hyperagressive when I sit down (tons of capped pots on the flop).

I'm in EP3 at a 10 handed table with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. EP1 limps, I limp, MP1 MP3 limp, cutoff limps, button limps, sb completes, bb checks. (literally 7 or 8 to the flop, if my memory is right).

Question: should I raise? (unlikely to thin the field by much, if at all)

Flop is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Sb bets, bb folds, EP1 folds, I raise (???), MP1 calls, MP3 instant 3 bets, cutoff caps even faster, button calls (not sure on that one), sb folds. I call. At least 4 to the turn, maybe 5.

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, cutoff raises, button folds, I fold (???), MP1 calls, MP3 goes all in for 13 total, all call.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (I throw up a little inside)

Results in white:
<font color="white"> MP1: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] j [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
MP3: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2nd card unknown
cutoff: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
</font>

Opinions? Simple pot odds fold? Players have been mostly straightforward in the game. I did not notice that MP3 had 13 chips left until after he was all in. I put everybody on about the hand they hand (one with a FD, one with either a flopped set or two pair, one with a straight draw or made straight). Should I raise on the flop? preflop?

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

I raise this PF. On the flop, I raise also. When it's 2 back to me on the flop, I pretty much have to call, although I probably shouldn't When the worst card in the deck hits on the turn, I am outta there. You've got one clean out. NH.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

Can I ever call two cold on the turn unless an 8 or 9 hits?

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

Obviously it depends on how big the pot is. If the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] came off the deck, you could give yourself maybe 4 outs (the 3 non spade 8s...and like 1 out for somehow spiking two pair and it being good or spiking a 9 and nobody having a straight), so you could call if the pot was utterly ginormous (20+ big bets)

Without raising PF, it's almost certainly not going to be that big.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this PF.

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I'm not sure if I raise this preflop. If you're seeing a lot of multi-way capped pots on the flop, this feels like the sort of hand which is going to face annoying reverse implied odds scenarios where the betting is going to force you off the best hand too often. If the game were less wild on the flop or if a raise had a chance of knocking players out, then I would raise. As described, I wouldn't mind playing 99 mainly for set value.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

I think not raising preflop in this kind of game is a mistake. When you can expect many coldcallers behind you and aggressive action on all streets, then you can play it for set value by raising and then reevaluating on the flop, when you dont hit your set and the board doesnt look threatening, if you want to proceed by staying the aggressor or folding. By limping you give up too much, I think.

The Flop: You are getting ca. 13:1 to call the cap. IMO this is a fold. Someone could have 89 already, so even if you hit, you might end up split the pot. Anybody with a T9 will still be there on the turn. Somebody with two pair or a set is beating you already. You dont have one clean out, and there actually are only 2 cards in the whole deck, that will be blanks on the turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] . I would have folded right there.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raise this PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if I raise this preflop. If you're seeing a lot of multi-way capped pots on the flop, this feels like the sort of hand which is going to face annoying reverse implied odds scenarios where the betting is going to force you off the best hand too often. If the game were less wild on the flop or if a raise had a chance of knocking players out, then I would raise. As described, I wouldn't mind playing 99 mainly for set value.

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yea, you wanna play those with 2-3 people at most for a raise OOP and that aint happening here. i dont mind limping either.when its 2 more back to you on the flop, i think you fold. your two nines are tainted, and more than likely a split with turn red 8, and the other black 8 is no good.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

In the game as described, I suppose if you don't have a lot of confidence in your postflop play you can limp. Even in this game I raise this, oh, about 500% of the time.

I don't call two cold on the turn, though.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

just curious what raising preflop here in a game like this without position accomplishes?

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
just curious what raising preflop here in a game like this without position accomplishes?

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In most games raising from early position will thin the field some, although it did not appear to here. This is also a raise for value. While 99 does not win as often as large pocket pairs it still has a small equity edge. Raising this from early position also widens your raising range. If you flop a set here, you are much more likely to get lots of action from one pair and two pair hands, because they will tend to put you on Ax with x large or a bigger pocket pair. This may also get you more action on later early position raises because they saw you raise 99.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

What odds are we getting on the turn here anyways if we call 2 BBs? Is it like around 7:1ish? This is a big friggin pot. I need to think about this one a bit more. Odds wise prolly not goot enough to call but I am going to ponder this one for a bit and consult my ouji board.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just curious what raising preflop here in a game like this without position accomplishes?

[/ QUOTE ]

In most games raising from early position will thin the field some, although it did not appear to here. This is also a raise for value. While 99 does not win as often as large pocket pairs it still has a small equity edge. Raising this from early position also widens your raising range. If you flop a set here, you are much more likely to get lots of action from one pair and two pair hands, because they will tend to put you on Ax with x large or a bigger pocket pair. This may also get you more action on later early position raises because they saw you raise 99.

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so basically, without position were raising here for set value in a game where its likely to get 3- bet or even capped? i raise this in ANY game from the CO or OTB but in this game i prefere limping in early.also, unless you hit your set no ones gonna see your hand showndown anyway like what, 85% of the time?

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

BTW, i tend to be a little nitty, so take it for what its worth.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just curious what raising preflop here in a game like this without position accomplishes?

[/ QUOTE ]

In most games raising from early position will thin the field some, although it did not appear to here. This is also a raise for value. While 99 does not win as often as large pocket pairs it still has a small equity edge. Raising this from early position also widens your raising range. If you flop a set here, you are much more likely to get lots of action from one pair and two pair hands, because they will tend to put you on Ax with x large or a bigger pocket pair. This may also get you more action on later early position raises because they saw you raise 99.

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It's funny how the OP describes the game as "hyperaggressive", and then gives us a hand example that's 8 ways to the flop for 1 bet. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But seriously, in a game that's truly hyperaggressive preflop, not only do you have to raise this hand, but I would fold it before I limped in with it. Yes, I said fold. In fact, 99 is the exact holding S&amp;M highlights in HEPFAP as being a trouble hand in loose, wild games, because the variance it adds is so huge (you often tie yourself to the pot by hitting even the tiniest piece of the flop) while the additional EV gained by playing it is small.

There's no point in playing mid-pairs for set value in wild games, because 90% of the time it'll cost you 4 bets to see if you can hit your 8:1 shot. So if you're not comfortable raising for all the reasons mentioned above (and with playing poker with it when you hit a small piece of the board, as the OP did), you might as well dump it, especially from EP.

Oh, and I'm not calling two cold on the turn either when that death card hits.

Mook

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

IMO any pair is good to play in a wild game.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

raise pf. you have a strong hand, the fewers players left behind you the better, you want to get JT, QT, Ax, Kx type hands to fold if possible, and you like money. even if 5(just off the top of my head) people call you still make money on the raise and still have good(but decreased) implied odds for our set value. raising increases the times you win without flopping a set, while still making money when you flop big. plus, it's to your benefit to raise more than JJ+ pf and AK.

i think you played postflop well.

don't show that river card. it doesn't matter.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

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just curious what raising preflop here in a game like this without position accomplishes?

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I think James covered it, but since you're asking me...

You raise this for value. It has an equity edge, and it's not negligible.

There is also metagame value there. Bad low limit players tend to make "one hand reads", IMO. They see you do something that may look bad to them once and they'll forever see you in that light. This happened to me the other night when I called a serial bluffer w/ J high on the river. MHIG, and for the rest of the night he was three betting me super light (by super light, I mean w/ 97o) and making ridiculous calldowns. Show them your raising range isn't just TT+ and AQ+ and you make yourself very difficult to play against.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

like i said, im a nit!

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

I still don't understand the reasons for raising 99 preflop; in these types of loose games, i just don't see myself folding out anyone very often, and i end up inflating the pot and forcing myself to play OOP on a flop with a very high likelihood of overcards. Equity wise, I ran 99 up against 10 j offsuit, q 7 suited, k4 suited, and ace 5 offsuit (a pretty common range for opponents in 3/6 live games), and it's actually 4th place in terms of win percentage to the river! Even a flop, say, 457 rainbow, where everybody gets a piece but im currently ahead, im still only 19% to win, which is not even break even equity. Does anyone support NOT raising the flop? Im often finding people peeling for the turn with two overcards anyways; ak, qk, ace jack type of hands are so tied to their hands that they want to take a turn card no matter what.

Re: Gross spot with 9\'s
 

I'm coming up with 99 as having a fraction over 20% equity against those four hands (third best) with PokerStove. Change the JTo to 87o and 99 becomes a solid favorite. You're not going to run into too many lineups where you're not at least break-even unless people are limping hands like TT and AK (which can happen) and you're sometimes going to run into lineups where you have much better than average equity.

So, people who think that you should raise any time you have an equity edge do have a point. I just happen to think that the game conditions as described probably put you into a few too many reverse implied odds situations so that you'll probably underperform you equity if you raise. Still, I think it's a close decision. If raising is actually the better option, it probably isn't +EV by that much more over just calling and comes with a sharp increase in variance. It's quite possible that someone who likes playing LAGgy should probably raise and someone who likes playing tighter should just call. I do know that David Sklansky has said that weak-tight play is close to correct in truly wild and crazy games.

I would consider not raising the flop, but it depends upon my read of the initial bettor and the people behind me. I can't really explain how that all works, though.