Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

Table is better than usual postflop. It will break in 20 minutes when the 15/30 opens and 5 of the players move to it. Everyone is still limping a lot PF. Villain is UTG, and seems to know what he's doing, although may be messing around a little.

Hero holds 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the HJ. UTG limps, MP Limps, and hero limps. Button calls, blinds complete and check. Six handed to a flop of:

8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

It checks around

8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Blinds check, UTG bets, MP folds, hero calls, Button and blinds all fold.

8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Hero bets.....

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

if you have a read that utg is one of those live players that doesnt call without a pair (which is common) then i think a bluff works enough to be profitable.

dont do this online though.

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

There are 4.5 big bets out there, so I don't need to win very often to make the bet. He has a pair like never here, right?

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has a pair like never here, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

What pairs do you think he is betting the river with? What hands is he betting the turn with?

It feels like the sort of hand where your opponent might put you on a flush draw and checks to induce a bluff.

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has a pair like never here, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

What pairs do you think he is betting the river with? What hands is he betting the turn with?

It feels like the sort of hand where your opponent might put you on a flush draw and checks to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you are giving a live 6/12 player way too much credit for being logical.

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think you are giving a live 6/12 player way too much credit for being logical.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. A check to induce a bluff happens like... almost never.

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has a pair like never here, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

What pairs do you think he is betting the river with? What hands is he betting the turn with?

It feels like the sort of hand where your opponent might put you on a flush draw and checks to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you are giving a live 6/12 player way too much credit for being logical.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, OP said that the villain here "seems to know what he is doing," the table was described as "better than usual postflop," and he may be one of the players waiting for the 15/30 to open (it wasn't stated), so I don't know if it's right to assume that this player is your typical live 6/12 player.

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

He was waiting for the 15/30. I knew it, and he should have known that I knew it, although he probably thought I was just another 6/12 donkey. Now just because he's waiting for the 15/30 doesn't make him a genius....

It's hard for me to believe I won't induce a fold at least 25% of the time here. His hand really looks like two overs trying to take down the pot, or possibly a flush draw like mine.

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

I like it. He doesn't have a pair here very often, I think. You're getting what, like 4-1 to bluff? Easy play. NH

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

If he knows what he's doing, he should always bet this river with K-high or lower.

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is UTG, and seems to know what he's doing, although may be messing around a little.


[/ QUOTE ]

So perhaps my initial read was a little off [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He was waiting for the 15/30. I knew it, and he should have known that I knew it, although he probably thought I was just another 6/12 donkey. Now just because he's waiting for the 15/30 doesn't make him a genius....

It's hard for me to believe I won't induce a fold at least 25% of the time here. His hand really looks like two overs trying to take down the pot, or possibly a flush draw like mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really a read-dependent thing, although check-calling the river with a hand like A2s doesn't strike me as something only a genius would do. If he's just "messing around," does he bluff again with two overs or a missed flush draw, hoping you missed?

Without knowing if he's an idiot (and I generally assume a player is not a total moron until proven, although I also don't assume a player is good without evidence), you could be up against a player who bets his hands worse than ace high or K3 or better, and check-calls the rest.

I actually do like the bluff, I just don't think the information given is enough to say there's no way he can beat ace-high.

Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
 

Thanks for the thoughts guys. He chucked his hand into the muck before I finished putting my bet in the pot. I think the critical part of this move was the fact that he viewed me as a straight-forward donkey 6/12 player. It was my first successful pure bluff on the river in like 2 months.