hows this for a teaser?
 

hi im fairly new to sportsbetting

$200 to win $500 teasing 6.5pts

KC +10.5, bears +7.5, browns +7.5, eagles +3.5

my friend advised me that crossing the line is bad

the eagles line was -3

but how can this be bad?

if i was only up by a FG id lose

but now i can be down by a FG and win

any advice much appreciated in advance

thank you

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

It stinks

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...e=0#Post7177789

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

Teasing across the zero with Philly looks like donkey stuff but is ok if you capture the entire 3 on the other side, which you have. Bears and Browns to 7.5 (thru the 3 and 7) looks good also, KC teased to 10.5 as home dog at Arrowhead also looks like a good situation.

Wong Teasers are not the be all and end all, I like your play, and think it is +EV as you have teased across some key numbers on all your picks.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

love em cept for the Eagles bet. Look just dont cross the zero, its not worth it. Just give the hawks the post.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

thanks for the responses thus far

[ QUOTE ]
love em cept for the Eagles bet. Look just dont cross the zero, its not worth it. Just give the hawks the post.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain to me why its not worth crossing the zero?

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

You get almost no value for that number, as only OT ties end on it. So you've picked up five numbers for a 6.5 point teaser.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

wouldnt zero have some value?

like half a point

i mean its like 50/50 either team wins

if it goes to OT

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Teasing across the zero with Philly looks like donkey stuff but is ok if you capture the entire 3 on the other side, which you have. Bears and Browns to 7.5 (thru the 3 and 7) looks good also, KC teased to 10.5 as home dog at Arrowhead also looks like a good situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's all just ignore math. Maybe the tooth fairy will give me a winning teaser.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

I never post here but I have plenty of teasers on teams that were for instance -3 -120 and definitely moving to -3.5, I teased them 6 points + TIES WIN so I end up getting +3.5 on the other side.

If you think this is a bad teaser leg, you have issues.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

And you have a winning record on these teasers over a meaningful sample size?

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

I'm too lazy, but someone use the search function........in a previous wong thread someone here ran the numbers and found that teasing from -3 to +3.5 was at least breakeven in NFL over past 15 years. Teasing from -3 -120 or -125 with a line expected to go higher would therefore be +EV.

It does not look appealing to tease thru the zero, but you make up for it by teasing thru the most important number (3) twice.

Also, I like the KC leg of the teaser because he is teasing a Home Dog (best subset) with a historically good homefield advantage off the 4 and through the 6,7 and 10, and also because the tooth fairy told me it would work.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

Im pretty sure if you run the numbers crossing the zero is not breakeven, but a long term loser. Just use this season as the example.

Also, lets just look at this game objectively. Would you rather give the Eagles a field goal or the hawks two scores? One could argue the Eagles looked great on Sunday and the hawks got lucky, but in my experience, the NFL has great parity and giving a decent team two scores is the better play.

Either way, I love the bears and chiefs bet. Home dogs are my favorite bet. Although, I will wait until later in the week as the line will probably move in my favor, esp. for the chiefs.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

[ QUOTE ]
And you have a winning record on these teasers over a meaningful sample size?

[/ QUOTE ]

PLS tell me if a game closes at -3.5 or -4, what are my chances of winning +3.5?

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

So you're accurately predicting line movements 100% of the time?

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So you're accurately predicting line movements 100% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you seriously that dense?

I'm so glad this is the first and last day I will spend on this part of 2p2, you guys are ridiculous!

I've had more winnings confiscated from sportsbooks than you've made your entire life betting (which is pretty easy I guess since you're probably in the red) and been barred from more books than you can count on two hands.

If you want to be a huge dick and continue losing, be my guest.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

Bye.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you're accurately predicting line movements 100% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you seriously that dense?

I'm so glad this is the first and last day I will spend on this part of 2p2, you guys are ridiculous!

I've had more winnings confiscated from sportsbooks than you've made your entire life betting (which is pretty easy I guess since you're probably in the red) and been barred from more books than you can count on two hands.

If you want to be a huge dick and continue losing, be my guest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. This is so impressive. I'm happy for you. Now if you'll STFU about +EV teasers. I'd appreciate it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

WarDekar getting run out for stinking the place up with truth while QueenYao delivers a sold-out symposium on advanced risk management using your gut and thinks his correlated NFL parlay is cashing 44%. I love this place.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

[ QUOTE ]
WarDekar getting run out for stinking the place up with truth while QueenYao delivers a sold-out symposium on advanced risk management using your gut and thinks his correlated NFL parlay is cashing 44%. I love this place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I threw up in my mouth a considerable amount when he said that.

Getting the right price and the correct movement is much tougher on these teasers, but working them correctly can make some cheese.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

WarDekar ran himself off (or threatened to) solely on the behavior of one poster, Hedgie43, with less than 400 posts.

That's not exactly the consensus of the forum rising up against him. Thremp, one of the more vocal of the runners-off of newbs, actually stepped in and defended his position with a usual backhanded compliment.

-P

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

[ QUOTE ]
WarDekar ran himself off (or threatened to) solely on the behavior of one poster, Hedgie43, with less than 400 posts.

That's not exactly the consensus of the forum rising up against him. Thremp, one of the more vocal of the runners-off of newbs, actually stepped in and defended his position with a usual backhanded compliment.

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

To be fair we did exchange PMs and some roses. We have a candlelit dinner in the works.

Re: hows this for a teaser?
 

[ QUOTE ]
WarDekar ran himself off (or threatened to) solely on the behavior of one poster, Hedgie43, with less than 400 posts.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hedgie 375
Ben 231

http://icanhascheezburger.files.word...1456084831.jpg

http://www.nomansblog.com/wp-content...ges/Flanny.jpg