Three barrels?
 

Villain was on my left on two tables, and the BB on my button was also the same. BB had a folded to steal of 75% so I was raising a ton from the button. Villain had a really low WTSD (under 30), but was pretty aggro PF. Not really sure with the board texture here, but I think it's correct? Anyone give up on the river?

5/10 Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$257.00</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$335.60</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$257.50</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$411.25</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$1970.00</font>)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 5 players) Hero is BTN Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, Hero calls

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.0 SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.5 BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.5 BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>

Re: Three barrels?
 

If villain makes it to the river...that river card isnt going to scare him away. I think you waste a bet on this river.

Re: Three barrels?
 

this is absolutely awful, 3 barrels can be fired when scare cards come, not when blanks come if they call the flop and turn. Why would he ever fold when a 5d hits getting 8.5BB

Re: Three barrels?
 

You guys don't think a player w/a WTSD of under 30 in a superaggro 5-max game will make a bad fold w/T/J+gutter or an underpair enough of the time? I thought it was close, maybe not.

No issues with the flop raise, right?

Re: Three barrels?
 

If he makes it that far he will be getting 8.5-1...he will make this call with any ace or and most jacks or 10s...its not that close

Re: Three barrels?
 

sample size on stats?

Re: Three barrels?
 

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sample size on stats?

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About 250 hands. Villain's VPIP/PFR numbers were in the usual lagtag range along with aggression, but the WTSD was ridiculously low.

Re: Three barrels?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
sample size on stats?

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About 250 hands. Villain's VPIP/PFR numbers were in the usual lagtag range along with aggression, but the WTSD was ridiculously low.

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you can't base a read on WTSD numbers with only 250 hands. It's so much more likely that this guy was a reasonable WTSD (35-40) and has been running terribly over the sample you have on him rather than truly being a folder.

Re: Three barrels?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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sample size on stats?

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About 250 hands. Villain's VPIP/PFR numbers were in the usual lagtag range along with aggression, but the WTSD was ridiculously low.

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you can't base a read on WTSD numbers with only 250 hands. It's so much more likely that this guy was a reasonable WTSD (35-40) and has been running terribly over the sample you have on him rather than truly being a folder.

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If that was true, wouldn't the WTSD number be about the same, and the W$SD be low? Point taken tho, I should probably look into what the PT stats mean individually.

Re: Three barrels?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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sample size on stats?

[/ QUOTE ]

About 250 hands. Villain's VPIP/PFR numbers were in the usual lagtag range along with aggression, but the WTSD was ridiculously low.

[/ QUOTE ]
you can't base a read on WTSD numbers with only 250 hands. It's so much more likely that this guy was a reasonable WTSD (35-40) and has been running terribly over the sample you have on him rather than truly being a folder.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that was true, wouldn't the WTSD number be about the same, and the W$SD be low? Point taken tho, I should probably look into what the PT stats mean individually.

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What happens when a lot of the broadway hands you play never hit a pair?

Re: Three barrels?
 

I dont raise the flop, I dont bet the turn, I dont bet the river

Re: Three barrels?
 

I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???

Re: Three barrels?
 

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I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???

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Indeed. There are two reasons to raise the flop, FE or taking a free card.

This flop hits a 3-betting range pretty hard. A lot of the time you'll get called down, and a lot of the time you'll get reraised forcing you to pay the max for your draw. You have very little FE and the risk of getting 3-bet is high which makes a free card play too risky. Free card plays are seldom worth it HU anyways.

On top of that you don't know how many of your outs are good. K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] could be bad for you and half your outs could be drawing to a split.

Just call and hope you hit.

Re: Three barrels?
 

I don't think the flop raise is that bad if we believe he's folding a pocket pair smaller than the board.

Assuming 44+,A6s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (probably wider) he'll have 44-99 about 20% of the time.

Our hot-and-cold equity in this flop is 30%, lets assume we win 25% of the time and 0BB implied odds (due to flop 3-bets with better hands obviously, he will rarely try to c/r the turn wich will be a disaster), and he's folding 44-99 to a flop raise + turn bet.

The pot will be 4BB (discounting 0,5BB rake) and we invest 2BB in our line. I assume he always peel the flop.

EV = 0,20*4BB + 0,80*(0.25*4BB + 0.75*(-2BB)) = 0.80 - 0.40 = 0.40BB

Enough overlay for our semibluff IMO, but if conditions change it could be a close play (if I made the math correctly :P)

I wouldn't 3-barrel the river. If we assume he has TT+,A6s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (taking out 44-99)we have 0% equity and I don't think he's folding weak pairs enough. I'll give up.

P.S. Yeah, first post. Long time lurker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Three barrels?
 

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I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???

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Flop raise cant be bad. Come on

22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 will all fold a good portion of the time

Thats 45 combos!!

With the OESD and possible pair outs vs KJ and KT Hero doesnt need to get a fold very often for it to be +EV. Pot is 8 SB when villain bets and hero would be calling anyway so make that 10 SB that he is paying 1 more bet to win. Of course villain will make it 3 or force hero to bet again on the turn but still.

I'd guess that if villain folds as little as 10% here then the semibluff raise is good. With all those combos of low pp's that should be more than feasible


I'd say that not raising this flop is bad.

Re: Three barrels?
 

oink,
how many combos 3-bet?

Re: Three barrels?
 

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oink,
how many combos 3-bet?

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Quite a few.

But now when AK 3-bet we still have about 27% eq and are only loosing half a SB

AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8s, A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, KQo, KQs, AA, JJ, TT.

Havent counted but I'd say thats on the wrong side of 100 combos.


Writing this I realize that the low pp's that fold will prolly give up on the turn or river anyway

Hmm. I take back what I said

No reason to pop the flop if he c/f turn with 77

Re: Three barrels?
 

I think he's probably bet/folding 44-99 in the turn after 3-betting preflop. People just 2-barrel a lot when they are PF 3-bettors and there are some gutshots Kx Qx that we may have.

So we're semibluffing/bluffing any turn/river blank if villian checks, to fold that PPs? I'm worried about Villian thinking that c/c'ing with them in the river might be good to catch some bluffs in a nice pot.

I think I'm still raising the flop, but what Oink said makes me think it's closer than I thought.