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-   -   Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=554998)

Vince. 11-26-2007 06:21 PM

Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
Unknown villain

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (MP1): $98
MP2: $97.25
CO: $70.90
BTN: $16.25
SB: $94
BB: $40.35
UTG: $87.70
UTG+1: $25

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, MP2 calls $3.50, 4 folds

Flop: ($8.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, MP2 calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $15</font>, MP2 calls $15

River: ($50.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets $50.50</font>, Hero...

sobos 11-26-2007 06:31 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
Call. This is often a flush, but remember that you don't have to win this every time for it to be a +EV call.

Grinding2Ecstasy 11-26-2007 06:39 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
Against unknown I think you have to pay it off, I'm not happy about it though.

effang 11-26-2007 06:46 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
VB the river yourself. i think that this is a very dangerous board and he could be calling with a lot of weak hands against a PFR. hands like sets, 2ps.

also, bet more on the turn. any hand that calls a bet on this flop definitely has a strong hand or draw and is going to call more on the turn.

CalledDownLight 11-26-2007 06:47 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
I'd fold. I think he has a flush here 75% of the time or more.

Vince. 11-26-2007 06:47 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
effang,

If I bet the river, do I call a shove?

RapidLearner 11-26-2007 06:53 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. I think he has a flush here 75% of the time or more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Putting out a block bet sounds reasonable, but usually I'd c/f. *edit* It'd be a b/f line.

CalledDownLight 11-26-2007 07:03 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
I would have c/c a smaller bet, but full pot is a flush way too often.

novel20 11-26-2007 07:06 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
LOL Why is it 75% or more? LOL

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. I think he has a flush here 75% of the time or more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ulkis 11-26-2007 07:06 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
I had almost identical hand today, spooky - but the flush card came on the turn and 3d on the river ie in reverse order.

In that case what does hero do on the turn, and possibly on the river?

CalledDownLight 11-26-2007 07:24 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
[ QUOTE ]
LOL Why is it 75% or more? LOL

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. I think he has a flush here 75% of the time or more.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Just a number I threw out there. With a psb here I think he has a flush the vast majority of the time and a set or 2 pair seldom (15%) and a bluff 10%.

Chargers In 07 11-26-2007 07:27 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
I think b/f for $30-$40 is much better than c/c.

Makonnen 11-26-2007 07:40 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
Call. You only have to be right 35% of the time, and I think that this is a worse hand (JJ, AK, even a slow played KK) often enought for it to be worthwhile. So, click reload just in case, but call ...

I like a larger turn bet as well, and I don't mind the c/c on the river. I think a $30 bet on the river works, too, but keep in mind that if he shoves over your $30, you're then looking at $40 to win $150, and you'll have to call that as well ...

AllTheCheese 11-26-2007 07:50 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think b/f for $30 is much better than c/c.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup.

Warren Harding 11-26-2007 08:50 PM

Re: Flop nut straight, possible flush on river 100NL
 
[ QUOTE ]
but full pot is a flush way too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does everyone else feel about this sentiment? I feel like the bet is begging for a fold whereas a flush would bet ~1/2 pot.


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