betting on Ron Paul
 

On my sportsbook, they have a line for how much RP will raise on 12/16. The over/under is 6 mil with the over being 2-3 and the under being 11-10. Isnt 6 mil a lot for one day? Has anyone raised this much before?

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

i'd take the under for sure, can somebody link or pm me a good place to bet on this?

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

These lines were from sportsbook.com . I wish they would have had even odds and just move the line up or down. Is 6 mil their target?

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

i just want to place bets on RP not winning something.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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These lines were from sportsbook.com . I wish they would have had even odds and just move the line up or down. Is 6 mil their target?

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The target I've seen is 10 million. 4.3 million was raised on 11/5. He has received much attention in the media for it and poll numbers have risen since then. A supporter also ran a full page ad in the USA Today to support the 12/16 "bomb". On the downside, the fact that this is during the Christmas shopping season may reduce some people's budgets or maybe they will be in more of a giving mood. I dunno.

Here is a graph comparing 11/5 to 12/16.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

The books started off at 5, moved to 6, and I wouldn't be suprised to hear that it's now 10. IMO take the over on 5 or 6, but I can't imagine ANYBODY raising 10. (Although if anybody could, it would be Paul, and it would be on 12/16)

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

Six sounds like a pretty reasonable number to make.

I personally am going from the $25 I gave to more this time.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

Tom,

The goal of those organizing the teaparty "bomb" is to get 100,000 people to donate $100. There are already over 20,000 pledges. There were around 18,000 pledges for 11/5 and almost 39,000 donations. Whether or not the same ratio will play out here, who knows. I agree though, that 10 million seems a bit far fetched. My guess is 5.5 million raised on 12/16 but I hope I am proven wrong (wrong as in I guessed too low, ldo).

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

I think the biggest downside is that a lot of supporters may have maxed out ($2300) the first time. But I think the upsides definitely outweigh it. $6 mil sounds about right to me.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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I think the biggest downside is that a lot of supporters may have maxed out ($2300) the first time. But I think the upsides definitely outweigh it. $6 mil sounds about right to me.

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Good point about those who maxed out. I hadn't considered that.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

If you're holding off until 12/16, remember that the campaign sent out e-mails saying they need money now and not later. By 12/16 it will be too late to have an effect on the early states. So don't hold out too much.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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If you're holding off until 12/16, remember that the campaign sent out e-mails saying they need money now and not later. By 12/16 it will be too late to have an effect on the early states. So don't hold out too much.

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I don't know about this. The need for money is to get Ron Paul's name out in those states. Another record breaking fundraising day would help to accomplish this at no cost, imo. These pooling of funds seem to be the best bang for the buck.

edited to add that there is also another drive for 11/30 being advertised under Ron Paul's reading assignment to Rudy . web page

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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Tom,

The goal of those organizing the teaparty "bomb" is to get 100,000 people to donate $100. There are already over 20,000 pledges. There were around 18,000 pledges for 11/5 and almost 39,000 donations. Whether or not the same ratio will play out here, who knows. I agree though, that 10 million seems a bit far fetched. My guess is 5.5 million raised on 12/16 but I hope I am proven wrong (wrong as in I guessed too low, ldo).

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Oh, I think that 10 Mil WOULD be possible, if people could donate more than the 2300. But I'm sure that quite a few used that already on the first day. I think he'll end around 6 M, which would be really amazing.

BUT, it's true that the campaign does need more now. If you're thinking about donating $1000 on the bomb day, I'd seriously think about splitting that in some ratio to donate now/then. The money bombs are great, but I hope that after this one, the emphasis is more on volunteering/constant donations, rather than another big bomb. Paul has the money and the media coverage now that he didn't have then. It's time to put the troops on the ground, as they say.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

Except for Borodog I bet very few people have pledged 2300.

The average donation is $100 I believe (at least for the money bomb)

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

The average donation on November 5th was like 125 dollars. No one has more untapped donors than Ron Paul.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

pretty much impossible to tell without knowing the median donation size or other info, it could be that the large majority gave $100 because of the way they advertised it or a small number have 2300 and a large number gave 20 or so.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

I think $6 million is a good estimate. $8 million is probably stretching it and $10 million is ridiculous. 38,000 people donated November 5th. I would assume that a very large chuck of those people did not donate the max. Add in people that Paul has picked up along the way and the fact that people have probably been saving for this since November 5th and $6 million isn't that unrealistic. I think I heard the campaign say a little while back that only around 2% of their donors are maxed out. We'll see how this November 30th turns out. Will it cut into the 16th at all?

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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pretty much impossible to tell without knowing the median donation size or other info, it could be that the large majority gave $100 because of the way they advertised it or a small number have 2300 and a large number gave 20 or so.

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Through the 3rd quarter, Ron Paul had received 17% of his money from max donors, versus 46% for Obama, 49% for Romney, 60% for Giuliani, 63% for Clinton.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

I would take the under. I think they are getting more subscribers, but I think a higher percentage of people are subscribing this time around, rather than the 5th. This is just my gut instinct, and I hope I am wrong. Betting against RP has been a flawed strategy in the past, so who knows.

I am worried that the Dec 16th date is too late. Iowa and NH are only a couple weeks after that.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

I don't get why people are trying to say the max donor thing doesn't really matter. Even if it's way less than the mainstream guys, it's still a big chunk of people who are not eligible to give any money, and maybe would give $2300 if they could. It is what it is. It's clearly a disadvantage, as compared to the first moneybomb. Probably the only disadvantage worth mentioning. It's just that the advantages of more exposure, etc. outweigh it, so we should still expect a big day. But clearly it would be nice if there were a couple hundred more people able to drop the max, and add a quick half mil.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

I'd be far more concerned about the Christmas season than max donors. It's not going to be too easy for people to consciously donate a large chunk when apparently consumer spending is supposed to be down this quarter and people by and large some predict are going to be shopping at discounters.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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I'd be far more concerned about the Christmas season than max donors. It's not going to be too easy for people to consciously donate a large chunk when apparently consumer spending is supposed to be down this quarter and people by and large some predict are going to be shopping at discounters.

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Atheists UNITE!!!

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

Its too bad you can't control the outcome of this thing due to contribution limits.

Just bet $6 million on the over, while contributing $6 million to RP. Then you get a free roll on a big campaign contribution.

I wonder what Bodog's bet limit is? They should email the list of tea party donor's to all play the over on the same day hopefully before the line moves, and then add that amount to the contribution they were going to pledge to RP.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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I'd be far more concerned about the Christmas season than max donors. It's not going to be too easy for people to consciously donate a large chunk when apparently consumer spending is supposed to be down this quarter and people by and large some predict are going to be shopping at discounters.

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Atheists UNITE!!!

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What does that matter?

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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I'd be far more concerned about the Christmas season than max donors. It's not going to be too easy for people to consciously donate a large chunk when apparently consumer spending is supposed to be down this quarter and people by and large some predict are going to be shopping at discounters.

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Atheists UNITE!!!

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What does that matter?

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Presumably atheists aren't spending a lot of money on Christmas gifts.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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I'd be far more concerned about the Christmas season than max donors. It's not going to be too easy for people to consciously donate a large chunk when apparently consumer spending is supposed to be down this quarter and people by and large some predict are going to be shopping at discounters.

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Atheists UNITE!!!

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What does that matter?

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Presumably atheists aren't spending a lot of money on Christmas gifts.

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What weird world do you live in? Most atheists I know still celebrate Christmas, although obviously without the baby Jesus crap.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

We don't celebrate Christmas, we celebrate Athiest Kids Get Presents Day. Purely coincidentally, it's on Dec. 25th.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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I'd be far more concerned about the Christmas season than max donors. It's not going to be too easy for people to consciously donate a large chunk when apparently consumer spending is supposed to be down this quarter and people by and large some predict are going to be shopping at discounters.

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Consumer spending was up 8% from last year on black friday, according to the talking heads on CNBC.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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We don't celebrate Christmas, we celebrate Athiest Kids Get Presents Day. Purely coincidentally, it's on Dec. 25th.

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*shrug* All the atheist families I know do all the Santa Claus crap, just not the baby Jesus crap, including the one I grew up in.

Re: betting on Ron Paul
 

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Consumer spending was up 8% from last year on black friday, according to the talking heads on CNBC.

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Horrors of rampant hidden, underreported inflation ldo