Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

I have tried this for 2 months now and won close to 8k without betting more than 200 a game, Thats +39 units after the juice.

Most of it was made in hockey, if you can find a bookie who gives you totals at 10 % juice you can break him, online (e.g bodog, sportsbook etc.) alot of totals are -125 and up, all the way up -150, meaning you have to lay down 125 or 150 bucks to win 100, now if a bookie gives that to you at 110 now you are booking him intead. Obviously the reason the lines are high is because it is more likely that the game will go that way.

Do you think it is a good system or am I just running hot ?

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

so, tell me if I follow this correctly.
You're saying if your bookie gives you bad lines you can beat him?
Magnificent.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

lol

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

If you also check some lines on nfl you will find the same, for tomorrow :
209 Seattle Seahawks
-3 (-125) this is on bodog, I bet you most bookies will give you this game at -110 correct me if I am wrong but all local bookies I know charge 10 % juice on all nfl games period.
Thus making it a very profitable bet.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

You do know what juice means, right?

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Unless you're simply advocating line shopping...which, I guess is a correct "strategy," but not necessarily profitable.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you also check some lines on nfl you will find the same, for tomorrow :
209 Seattle Seahawks
-3 (-125) this is on bodog, I bet you most bookies will give you this game at -110 correct me if I am wrong but all local bookies I know charge 10 % juice on all nfl games period.
Thus making it a very profitable bet

[/ QUOTE ]

And I'll bet you that most locals will be dealing -3.5 -110 which would give a lesser edge to the dog.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

I don't get it, online you are laying 125 to win 100, if the local bookie will give you the same line (which I imagine some bookies will move the line but alot of them will leave it the same) but you are laying 110 to win 100 that is not profitable ????

Not all bookies are sharp.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it,

[/ QUOTE ]

True dat

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

obv this method is +ev and profitable. the prob is that it is useless to 99% of us who don't have access to a local bookie who's dumber than mud..

as others have mentioned, this idea is simply a fundamental derivative of the school of line-shopping.

assume this method is freely available, you can likely achieve a more optimal return w/ far less volatility by by taking the -130 side at -110 w/ a local, and selling back the other side +120 on pinny and scalp the 10 cent arb.

of course, if it was that easy everyone would be doing it. not too many of us can find a local w/ a high credit rating who's willing to sell you something worth 130 at 110. which is why everyone is pshawing at your idea..

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Trix,

Wouldn't it be better to assume Pinny is efficient, find the no-vig line and bet Kelly based on that?

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
Trix,

Wouldn't it be better to assume Pinny is efficient, find the no-vig line and bet Kelly based on that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on bankroll.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Well surely if your bankroll is small then you would bet Kelly and arb the remainder?

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well surely if your bankroll is small then you would bet Kelly and arb the remainder?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but the kelly stake also decreases depending on the size of the arb IIRC

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Update, bet Seattle -3 (-110) with the local bookie, bet 700 and won, online it was at -3 -130

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

There was a bookie in Belfast a few years ago that just started covering bets from the NFL. They didnt really understand the idea of a point spread so if a team was -16.5 -110 they would just write -110 on the board. It took them a full NFL season before they realised they was doing it wrong!

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
find a local w/ a high credit rating

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah.
if you are beating him THAT regularly then I would not be delaying any settle-ups with him.
Bookies this dumb are pretty likely to get killed. And bookies who were this likely to get killed probably don't have that high a credit rating. And bookies who lack such a credit rating may get themselves into too deep a debt and end up not paying/running.

Yeah, you can have your money taken from you online as well.
But a bookie who makes lines that are this bad have to be more likely of running on you I would think...even those who you believe are reputable in spite of their stupidity.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

OP you are tarded. Really tarded. Even if your local is giving you slightly better vigs than online sites this just means you save on juice, how in the fccuk are you crushing a bookie just because you are getting reduced juice?

Anyway Seattle -3 was available on MB for -108 early sunday morning. I was on it there. So your local ain't got shiat on MB.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Also I feel dumb reading more of your post but you compare to Bodog? Are you fccuking trolling us or something? Bodog's juice is about as bad as it comes online. Try comparing to one of the top 20 sites, not Bodog.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
Even if your local is giving you slightly better vigs than online sites this just means you save on juice, how in the fccuk are you crushing a bookie just because you are getting reduced juice?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the line at Pinnacle is -130/+122 he is going to do very well with his -110.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

The OP's lines are not reduced juice...they are errant lines.

If I could get +110 on all the spreads, I'd be rich too.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Whatever I just threw an idea out there, all you are doing is abusing me, I haven't post anything offensive to anyone but am being called a retard.

Thus I am done with this discussion, also keep in mind there is a reason the line is -130 online.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
Whatever I just threw an idea out there, all you are doing is abusing me, I haven't post anything offensive to anyone but am being called a retard.

Thus I am done with this discussion, also keep in mind there is a reason the line is -130 online.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have no idea why people are abusing you.

When Mayweather fought Gatti, I got Mayweather -250 from a bookie. That line was not available anywhere online. Arturo Gatti fights out of Jersey City, and packs the house in AC, so I am sure I was getting some kind of local line.

You really can get errant lines from a bookie, and not just against local teams/sides. Most of the people attacking you have probably never used a bookie before.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Thank you post for your support, there is a reason the line is -130 though, obviously people in vegas think there was a higher chance of seattle covering, thus raising the line to -130 so it evens out in the long run, so if you pound these games but getting -110 in the long run you should win, dont you agree with me.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]

Thus I am done with this discussion, also keep in mind there is a reason the line is -130 online.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll need to look at a book like Pinnacle or Matchbook, not Bodog, especially if you're getting Bodog's square lines.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
so if you pound these games but getting -110 in the long run you should win, dont you agree with me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I agree that if you see the other side is better than +110 online, than you should win. As others have pointed out, don't rely on Bodog's or Sportsbook's lines for comparison though. If you want one book to compare with, use Pinnacle.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Yes but also keep in mind pinnacle is not available for usa customers.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

I will start a new post so people can follow how these games with these lines go, see if my system works, like I said I have won lots of money from bookies and have collected most of it, I will post some tips I believe might be helpfull, please don't put abusive posts here and in the new post, all I am trying to do is help people beat local bookies.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

If I need a visa going to the USA does that stop me from watching Hollywood movies?

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes but also keep in mind pinnacle is not available for usa customers.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are not saying to bet on Pinnacle. We are just saying to look at Pinnacle's lines for sake of comparison.

Just get used to the negative posts. They are not gonna stop. Some of them may contain constructive criticism, but just be prepared to ignore any that don't.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
I will start a new post so people can follow how these games with these lines go, see if my system works, like I said I have won lots of money from bookies and have collected most of it, I will post some tips I believe might be helpfull, please don't put abusive posts here and in the new post, all I am trying to do is help people beat local bookies.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm not sure that posting a new thread about this is really warranted.
All it will be is, "I saw -125 on Pinny...my bookie gave me -110...I won so I profited!!!"

This is really no different than basic line-shopping as far as I can see.
If we had seperate threads for every single person who was able to take advantage of a bookie or site giving them a bad line then this place would suck.
Of course you should take the better line when it's available to you.
This isn't really a "system" though. You have an inept bookie or two who are giving you bad lines...and now you want to make a thread to track your own personal results with this inept bookie.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]

Yes but also keep in mind pinnacle is not available for usa customers.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? You can still look at the lines. They are far more efficient than the square Bodog lines.

Also, your post doesn't really help people other than to illustrate the importance of line shopping.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Ok Lets keep it in this thread than, lets look at it from another point of view. BTW I checked pinnacle lines and bodog for a hockey games tonight and they are very similar.

A game is -130 for a reason. Lets take pinnacle line
Mon 11/26 7 Columbus Blue Jackets
OVER 5.5 +126
UNDER 5.5 -136 Columbus Blue Jackets

Actually bodog line is better lol its only -135.
Anyways to bet this game under 5.5 you have to lay 135 to win 100 the reason this is because linemakers believe that this game will stay under 6 or 7 out of 10 times, thats why the juice is higher. Now if you get this game at -110 you are going to be a winner in a long run because 6 or 7 out of 10 times you will win, as if you are betting 135 to win 100 you will break even in the long run and will loose the juice. So if you pick these games only that have higher probablity of accuring according to the lines online IN THE LONG RUN you will crush your bookies since most of them will give -110 line.

Please let me know if that makes more sense now

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Yesterday I bet seattle -3 3.5 units winner
also bet philly +24.5 1 unit winner

so far 2-0 + 4.5 units, tonights games are:

nhl
buffalo vs washington over 5.5 -125 on bodog -116 on pinny
columbus vs edmonton under 5.5 -135 on bodog -136 on pinny
1 unit a piece ONLY IF YOU CAN GET THEM AT -110 with your bookie

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I will start a new post so people can follow how these games with these lines go, see if my system works, like I said I have won lots of money from bookies and have collected most of it, I will post some tips I believe might be helpfull, please don't put abusive posts here and in the new post, all I am trying to do is help people beat local bookies.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm not sure that posting a new thread about this is really warranted.
All it will be is, "I saw -125 on Pinny...my bookie gave me -110...I won so I profited!!!"

This is really no different than basic line-shopping as far as I can see.
If we had seperate threads for every single person who was able to take advantage of a bookie or site giving them a bad line then this place would suck.
Of course you should take the better line when it's available to you.
This isn't really a "system" though. You have an inept bookie or two who are giving you bad lines...and now you want to make a thread to track your own personal results with this inept bookie.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed, lock it up plz.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

I'm gonna be nice and sum up what people are trying to tell you Roman (albeit rudely in some cases)
You seem like a guy interested in sports and betting that haven't spent much time reading on forums like this, you've hit bullseye when it comes to a fundamental part of winning at sports, namely finding lines better than general consensus and thus having value.

This is common knowledge though and every day there are tons and tons of situations where you could find such opportunities, so do yourself a favor and save the energy it takes to post the games you find.
If every bettor in here would do this the forum would be filled with 200page threads where people share their 100 daily bets where they found these spots.
Grats on your wins and good luck in the future.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

There is another forum that I read frequently and it is all about sportbetting, it is www.covers.com, surprisingly I searched on there and couldn't find anything similar to what I proposed. And on there thousands of people post their picks and records, so I will try that on here for alittle bit and if mods think it doesn't belong here please lock or let me know thanks,
Also adding

pitt vs miami over 38 1/2 putting this one in for 2 units.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

Just as Limp put it, line shopping is common sense. Put it this way though, even if you get lines 10c or better than the norm, if you are still shiatty at picking plays, like are always on favs and overs, even getting slightly better lines doesn't mean much. Just stops the bleeding if you are a dumba$$.

Also that over is at 37.5 -104 on MB now. Way better than your bookies line at -110.

Re: Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies
 

I know that play doesnt fall under that category, after doing some research I picked it on my own.

Well brendan lets follow this for a few weeks and see how I do, If I loose than please feel free to flame away, I have won over 8k now, I know its hard just to takes someones word for it, therefore I will post my plays prior the game so you can check them out and see how I do for myself.