How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Hello,
after strings of 1-2000 games going up in ROI, I always experience a period really hard to deal with.
Time ago I wrote a program, that I called 'luckometer' to just check difference from won chips and EV in preflop allins 1v1. I found that in the long run difference should tend to 0.
However, at a certain point , bad luck seem unstoppable.
I give an example with some numbers (from today)..
143 25$+2$ sit & go played
I was 352 times allin preflop (1v1 showdown).
I was 51.42% on edge vs my opponent's hand.
My expected value was 600,087 chips.
I extracted from pots just 483,088 chips.
Difference is 24.22% negative, 116,999 chips were lost in bad luck..
I wrote a simulator too that repeat the games flip and, playing 352 allins 200 times it never had a so negative result.
Is there anyone with a good math/statistic background that can help me to calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ?

Meanwhile I will simulate a long run with the simulator to see how many times 'this may happen' in an empiric way
Thanks
SJ

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

fold preflop

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ?


[/ QUOTE ]
50:50, either you run that bad or you dont.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

this post is actually pretty interesting. how many SD's is he off?

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

to answer your question:
http://i216.photobucket.com/albums/c...splayGraph.png

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Jesus, I have never seen a losing player complain as much as you. If your down after the 15k games you've played for the love of God, your a LOSING player. And I use to play with you all the time and you don't know what's going on.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
to answer your question:
http://i216.photobucket.com/albums/c...splayGraph.png

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's running bad

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this post is actually pretty interesting. how many SD's is he off?

[/ QUOTE ]
What's SD ?

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, I have never seen a losing player complain as much as you. If your down after the 15k games you've played for the love of God, your a LOSING player. And I use to play with you all the time and you don't know what's going on.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you never lost 120K chips more than expected in 300 allins. However, I'm asking a question on some NUMBERS. Really don't understand why you have to insult this way.
It's really sad. Good luck

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

All SNGs were played post-legislation, so that's not it:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...ld/wtfgraf.jpg

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Dear spacegravy...
considering you think to be the best player in the world.
To me you seem just a lucky arrogant child.
You think I'm a sucker able only to complain on bad luck, right ?
Get this challenge.
21 heads up , 500$.
More, winner will get 10.000$ from loser.
Have you balls for that ?
Or you want to show to everyone how coward you are ?
If u want we can play also 40 hu so to cancel badluck factor

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

51.42% AI equity. lol you suck at poker. thanks for your monies

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

lol what is that a poem, ill play you hu for w/e amount.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Action!
*Getting popcorn*

Grudge matches are the best.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dear spacegravy...
considering you think to be the best player in the world.
To me you seem just a lucky arrogant child.
You think I'm a sucker able only to complain on bad luck, right ?
Get this challenge.
21 heads up , 500$.
More, winner will get 10.000$ from loser.
Have you balls for that ?
Or you want to show to everyone how coward you are ?
If u want we can play also 40 hu so to cancel badluck factor

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to tell you that I have played in a lot of sit and goes with you and have found your play transparent.

The only reason I even knew you were a losing player was because you sucked out on me and I thought "hmmm, I doubt he's a winning player with calls like that" before I looked at your sharkscope graph and removed all doubt.

Though maybe with an ego like that and game selection like that (well done challenging a very good SnG player to HU matches btw) you shouldn't look at the cards but your own tilt.

You seem to be playing a zillion tables at a time and quickly donking off chips at most tables after a bad beat (which is pretty sure why you sucked out on me) so control your ego.

P.S if you need a program to tell you whether you are a losing player or unlucky after 15,000 games then you are simply not made to play poker, let alone win at poker.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

this could be good!

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

ok so play my challenge and lets find someone to keep our money

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

draaaaaaamaaa

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dear spacegravy...
considering you think to be the best player in the world.
To me you seem just a lucky arrogant child.
You think I'm a sucker able only to complain on bad luck, right ?
Get this challenge.
21 heads up , 500$.
More, winner will get 10.000$ from loser.
Have you balls for that ?
Or you want to show to everyone how coward you are ?
If u want we can play also 40 hu so to cancel badluck factor

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you honestly believe you are a better SNG player than SpaceGravy when you have a 0% ROI over 17k SNGs and he has a 12% ROI over 27k SNGs.

Because if so that's awesome/sad at the same time. To be fair, I supposed you could just be running bad over seventeen thousand SNGs and he's probably just run really good over twenty-seven thousand SNGs. Yep, that's definitely it.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

I'm one hundred eleventy percent certain spacegravy knows what he's talking about

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Why are you trying to kill the action?

Gogo! I'm sure you can crush SG!

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

I'm not really sure what your talking about with your challenege... can anyone translate it with me?

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

jmill,
I never said that.
I never told I'm better than spacegravy at sngoes.
We are at a wrong point.
I simply asked something about NUMBERS in a thread, and spacegravy came to insult.
I was talking about variance and real numbers. He simply came to tell me I'm a sucker.
So, he's better than me ?
Ok.
I will play heads up not against a player, but against his arrogance. And I can beat arrogance.
I can risk 10K$ more than the result for this .
Is OK.
I don't care about money i can lose this bet if i play poker it's not for the money but just to improve myself in this wonderful discipline, now what i want is punish his arrogance.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

I read it as best of 21 heads up matches at $500 a pop with an extra 10K for the winner.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
jmill,
I never said that.
I never told I'm better than spacegravy at sngoes.
We are at a wrong point.
I simply asked something about NUMBERS in a thread, and spacegravy came to insult.
I was talking about variance and real numbers. He simply came to tell me I'm a sucker.
So, he's better than me ?
Ok.
I will play heads up not against a player, but against his arrogance. And I can beat arrogance.
I can risk 10K$ more than the result for this .
Is OK.
I don't care about money i can lose this bet if i play poker it's not for the money but just to improve myself in this wonderful discipline, now what i want is punish his arrogance.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, how bout we play 10 1k hu sngs against each other?

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

alright im going out for the night, ill check this tomorrow tho but book it if your interested.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Yes. He wants to play 21 or 41 HU matches against you, where of each is $500. The loser will pay the winner additional $10000.

Accept it and get started

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure what your talking about with your challenege... can anyone translate it with me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok it is very simple we play 41 500$ hu's who win more of those get an additional 10k from the other one... are u baller enough for that , or u are able just to destroy people hope like u tried to do before with me...
Show everyone u re not a coward and play me this challenge
I would remember you that I encouraged you when you started your bet.. Among people telling 'lol' there was me writing 'go spacegravy go'. ! More, I subscribed to sit&go icons because I admired you (I will retire it immediately of course).
You are really a sad arrogant child.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure what your talking about with your challenege... can anyone translate it with me?

[/ QUOTE ]

He wants to play 41 $500 HU SnGs with you.

The person that wins 21 or more gains an additional $10,000 from the other person.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

I came.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Did you have tissues handy

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I was 352 times allin preflop (1v1 showdown).
I was 51.42% on edge vs my opponent's hand.
My expected value was 600,087 chips.
I extracted from pots just 483,088 chips.
Difference is 24.22% negative, 116,999 chips were lost in bad luck..
I wrote a simulator too that repeat the games flip and, playing 352 allins 200 times it never had a so negative result.
Is there anyone with a good math/statistic background that can help me to calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ?


[/ QUOTE ]

You'd get a better response in the Probability section, but what the hell.

Assuming you're 51.4% to win every time (which isn't quite true, but I can't make any better approximation with the info you've given). You won about 146/352 of the all-ins, if I've understood your numbers correctly. Using the cumulative binomial distribution, your probability of running this bad is roughly 0.01% or about 1 in 10,000.

Obviously this isn't going to be quite right since you weren't always 51.4% to win the hand, sometimes you are dominated and sometimes you have the other guy dominated. Also I calculated the 146/352 by using the number of chips you gave, not the number of all-ins you actually won, which you didn't give. If you ran worse in the big pots than in the little pots, then this also skews the % by quite a lot.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

spacegravy runs good at getting random losing players to challenge him.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

i thought poker tracker and hu displays ect were supposed to make you a winning player by seeing where you go wrong.. technology isnt everything obv..

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure what your talking about with your challenege... can anyone translate it with me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok it is very simple we play 41 500$ hu's who win more of those get an additional 10k from the other one... are u baller enough for that , or u are able just to destroy people hope like u tried to do before with me...
Show everyone u re not a coward and play me this challenge
I would remember you that I encouraged you when you started your bet.. Among people telling 'lol' there was me writing 'go spacegravy go'. ! More, I subscribed to sit&go icons because I admired you (I will retire it immediately of course).
You are really a sad arrogant child.

[/ QUOTE ]

first off spacegravey doesnt even make vids. he should. but canceling your subscription is just being childish. i have not seen ur graph and dont know u but i think u should just keep focusing on the game and trying to learn more. if the money doesnt mean anything to u then just play 4 games at a time. try to improve! take 1 month off and just watch the vids and IMPROVE! then once your turning a profit add more games. im not trying to be mean im just trying to help u out. sngicons is a great site and i think if u just put in a little effort u can be a great player. hell you have played so many sngs already. now all u have to do is find your leaks and plug them and you will be well on your way to being a winning player.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Run your simulator on several other players, it's virtually impossible to be as unlucky as those numbers say you are, so I'm pretty sure that either a) the simulator is working things out incorrectly, b) you're lying, c) you're the unluckiest person ever.

The likelihood of a random poster in BBV doing these things is something like a) 15% b) 85% c) 0%

<font color="white"> Lori </font>

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

Thanks for your answer, Lori.
I appreciated you at least valued my question.
I tried 'luckometer' on many regulars. Never had results like mine.
If you want to check, I attach here the log.
Meanwhile I played some other games so data are now: 627,813 chips expected, 502,848 won in 153 games/371 preflop allins 1v1 with showdown. Difference from expected is now -24.85%

You can find in the log:

1) HH file name
2) my hand vs opponent's one
3) WIN/LOSE (how the hand evolved after the board)
4) Number of chips in the pot
5) % of winning the hand preflop
6) % of split

I checked many times that data. And it seems all correct. I compared with result given by many commercial software. It perfectly matches.
To obtain the %WIN/SPLIT I enumerate all possible boards so it is an exact result.
So
a) Luckometer seems to me to work correctly, please check the number by yourself.
b) I'm not lying, in the file there are the hand Tournament numbers too, you can match with what I played on sharkscope.
If authorized by pokerstars I can share with you the complete hand histories. It's not a problem for me. I think that you can exclude #2 after that.
c) I'm trying to find out it.

Link for log is
http://www.sngoev.com/processed.log
NB Luckometer is temporary not available for download because of some problems in installation package, but if you want to try I can send a no-install copy.
The thing I really can't understand is how a polite question become source of all this [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Cheers
SJ

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

I'm afraid that no matter how good your intentions, I'm not going to be downloading something at random from a forum post.

All I can suggest is that maybe you're not taking into account hands where you didn't see opponents cards or something. I'd spend significant time assuming you've made an error before assuming you're that unlucky. After you fail to find an error by looking hard, then go back to assuming you're unlucky and playing like before.

<font color="white"> Lori </font>

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

It's also possible you lost several huge pots, which would bring you back into the realms of the realistic by lowering the sample size.

You should probably try the same thing for pots over 6000 chips or something.

Re: How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
 

It is a text file, if you want I can send you via email, via PM if enough lines are allowed.
I just checked all the data you talked about
The file is in the form (here a sample)
HH20071124 T68152915 No Limit Hold'em $25 + $2.txt
Qd 5s vs Kc Jc WIN 4290 WIN : 32.4795129836758% SPLIT : 0.653330249768733
6h As vs 7c 9c LOSE 2000 WIN : 53.3150655491081% SPLIT : 0.379488688924397
8c 8h vs Kh Kc LOSE 5780 WIN : 18.2313420981321% SPLIT : 0.461133069828722
And analisys is one only when I have both opponents cards and a showdown after a 1v1 allin preflop.
It's the simpler situation.
Yes, sure, I must go back playing thinking of having been unlucky. But, see , I experienced this 'run' one, two, three times... and the first ones I did exactly what you are telling.
Results are these. And now I have to be called moron sucker fish tilter , LIER, etc etc..
However, I started asking a numeric value, didn't intend to complain also if, after a day like this, complaining a little should be acceptable. But I do it with my friends drinking a beer at the pub, not here.
Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]