25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

Don't have HH, sorry. Early in a session against an opponent I've never played before. We've gotten it in light and I've been losing. Seems very aggressive, he's made multiple shockingly thin value bets that I've paid off with worse. These have mostly been in small pots, crap like flop and turn get checked thru and then he vbs river with bottom pair and I call queen hi and lose on AKTT9 type boards. I haven't caught a big bluff from him but I'm quite confident he's capable, not necessarily in this spot specifically, but in general. (Ya, I game select good.)

25/50 effective stacks 7k

I make it 150 on the button with A3o, he calls.

Pot 300

Flop Ac 3c 2c

He bets 225, I call.

Pot 750

Turn Ac 3c 2c Ah

He bets 650, I call.

Pot 2050

River Ac 3c 2c Ah 4c

He checks, I bet 1700, he shoves ~6k

Obviously everyone's first reaction is going to be "You have a full house HU, one of the better possible ones even, CaLVlALa CAllAlAlALLALCLCLA ACclALlcLACLA CLALCALCLACL ACLAAL" but what am I expecting to beat?
Does he really take this line for value with worse often enough? Is he ever bluffing?
More specifically, A) how does he even get to this spot with a hand that wants to try to bluff? and B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?

Edit: Its definitely relevant to this hand that I'm pretty sure any two suited, and likely more combinations of 5cXy than you might expect, are in his range to call OOP preflop. He has shown up with 32s after calling a raise from the BB.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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Does he really take this line for value with worse often enough

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yes, he def would with the one combo of 33 and the combos of 22, and 44 if he got here this way. this river is a great one to check, because you'll bet just as many hands as you'll call with (you might call with like 88 with a club or something, rarely, but in general face card clubs that would call will also bet, and sometimes you have 77 no club that turns into a bluff)

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Is he ever bluffing?

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yes, most hands that make boats or quads raise the flop a fairly high % of the time, and his line is very believable for a boat

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B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?


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face card clubs (to both)

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A) how does he even get to this spot with a hand that wants to try to bluff?

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ten million ways, unless you have a read he doesn't donk flops often or something

so

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You have a full house HU, one of the better possible ones even, CaLVlALa CAllAlAlALLALCLCLA ACclALlcLACLA CLALCALCLACL ACLAAL

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Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

..

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

he had 5 of clubs huh, bummer

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?


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face card clubs (to both)



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Would a value bet really be correct with face card clubs here?

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?


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face card clubs (to both)



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Would a value bet really be correct with face card clubs here?

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yes? wtf? you want to check the king or queen of clubs here?

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?


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face card clubs (to both)



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Would a value bet really be correct with face card clubs here?

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yes? wtf? you want to check the king or queen of clubs here?

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I'm thinking that ike very rarely takes this calldown line to bluff the river, so he wouldn't be getting called light on that board, but you definitely have more 25/50 hu experience and know the oop's check/call range better

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

I certainly don't play this high, but surely this is a snap call if he is prone to VB light??

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

I call him here. Your bet on the river is both big enough to seem like made hand turned bluffish....but also small enough to be folded when he comes over the top with a hand he "must" beat you with in his mind as a representation of course. just my two cents....thats what i think is going on in his head.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

This is 22 and 33 a lot IMO.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

I would snap call and puke if he shows the 5c.

Basically you described villain as a good opponent who would get value from 22,33 Kc etc or air by playing this way.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

I mean, this should probably be a snap-call, but more than the 5c I would be worried about being shown A4 here. The fact that he donks into you on this A23c flop makes me kind of suspicious about the strength of his hand. I would expect him to not lead if he as the 4c for instance, but since it hits the river, you can obv take it out of his range. I find it hard to believe that he would continue-bet the turn on that sort of board without a pretty strong hand on the turn (A4 obv qualifies). Then the river hits so many hands, his river c/r line with the 2nd nuts makes sense against so many of your hands, since he would reasonably be expecting you to vbet any high club here. All that said though, that analysis is only because you decided to post the hand, so I'm assuming you got cooler by either the 5c or A4. I think his range in this spot is mostly polarized towards an underfull, so I snap call the river c/r.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

how do you not raise the turn 150bb deep yo

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

i agree with aejones on like everything...

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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how do you not raise the turn 150bb deep yo

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I think calling can be ok since his hand is air or a draw a lot, both of which fold turn but can get insane amounts of money in on the river in various ways (like this one callcallcallcallcallcallcalllcall).

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

Ok just reread OP and this is crazy talk that you are thinking of folding I would seriously be considering calling this shove with much that I vbet river with since I think depending on timing many people can decide to bluff here.

Its also terrible from a game theory perspective since this is close to the top of your range, he is a good player, and he gets to the river with a huge range of air (which he will bluff with some % of the time).

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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how do you not raise the turn 150bb deep yo

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I think calling can be ok since his hand is air or a draw a lot, both of which fold turn but can get insane amounts of money in on the river in various ways (like this one callcallcallcallcallcallcalllcall).

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meh i dont like having one street to put 6k stacks into a 2k pot

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

You said he is making thin value bets. You have the top of your range. He can be doing this with such a wider range than one that beats A3. All underfulls, plus A2, nut flushes. He can do it with straight flushes and A4, but i mean you just have to call this. If the river was an offsuit 4, would you even consider folding this? Because the 4c gives him one more out to beat you, but it also gives him a few more to value bet light or a hand to rep to bluff.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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how do you not raise the turn 150bb deep yo

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I think calling can be ok since his hand is air or a draw a lot, both of which fold turn but can get insane amounts of money in on the river in various ways (like this one callcallcallcallcallcallcalllcall).

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meh i dont like having one street to put 6k stacks into a 2k pot

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im with you on this.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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how do you not raise the turn 150bb deep yo

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I think calling can be ok since his hand is air or a draw a lot, both of which fold turn but can get insane amounts of money in on the river in various ways (like this one callcallcallcallcallcallcalllcall).

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meh i dont like having one street to put 6k stacks into a 2k pot

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im with you on this.

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same and im raisin a lot of the garbage i peel the flop with on this turn

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

this is a snap call. he can absolutely be doing this with hands for value that A3 beats, plus its an easy spot for a CR AI bluff. so CALL.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

OK, I guess this hand wasn't interesting. Obviously I called and lost to 8c5c. I didn't really think about folding at the time but I was second-guessing myself after the hand. Thanks for the sanity check I guess.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

don't be results oriented etc. etc. you played it fine, folding would be ridiculous

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

what a gross river card...yeah you played it fine