200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

Villain is like 40/0/1.2 over 30 hands.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $285.50
BTN: $218.95
SB: $60.40
BB: $413
UTG: $236.85
Hero (MP): $256.60

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO calls $8, 3 folds

Flop: ($19) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $13</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $54</font>, Hero ?

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

Shove

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

shoving is ok, but i'd rather call his flop bet, see if i can show down cheap if i don't improve

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

let him hang himself.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

lol let him hang himself!? theres a good chance he's ahead... personally im all in.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

shove

making him lay down TP is the most +EV thing for us.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

yeah chnaged my mind, just shove readless.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

I shove all day in this spot.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

I decided to call but I dunno why. Guess I wanted to let villain bluff off his chips if he was bluffing or not get it in vs his better hand like a set or something.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $285.50
BTN: $218.95
SB: $60.40
BB: $413
UTG: $236.85
Hero (MP): $256.60

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO calls $8, 3 folds

Flop: ($19) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $13</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $54</font>, Hero calls $41

Turn: ($127) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $223.50 and is All-In</font>, Hero

He shoved quickly fwiw.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

i think you have to shove the flop just because the turn will be so hard to play oop. if i had position i would call all day.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

i really disagree with shoving the flop because assuming the Villain is a donk and won't fold A4o to a shove, what does shoving the flop gain us when we don't have any FE?

Also you could argue that the Villain won't pay us off when we hit, but I think that's also mute because once again the Villain is a donk and the pot is large.

Therefore, I like a call on the flop and check fold the turn if it blanks and we don't have odds to call.

What do u guys think of this argument?

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

AKss= call flush, A3ss= push flop.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

fold turn

flop is a [censored] spot..we're always behind and never getting him to fold.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

[ QUOTE ]
i really disagree with shoving the flop because assuming the Villain is a donk and won't fold A4o to a shove, what does shoving the flop gain us when we don't have any FE?

Also you could argue that the Villain won't pay us off when we hit, but I think that's also mute because once again the Villain is a donk and the pot is large.

Therefore, I like a call on the flop and check fold the turn if it blanks and we don't have odds to call.

What do u guys think of this argument?

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds pretty solid to me

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

Yeah, we don't have any FE against other Aces. I think you played it fine (assume you folded turn).

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

good enough equity to shove the flop vs his range. I'd rather do that then call and c/f turn ui personally. Let's try not to play "perfect" poker with no idea of the guys range

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

[ QUOTE ]
shove

making him lay down TP is the most +EV thing for us.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's 40/0/1.2 and he just raised. expecting him to fold anything is um optimistic. people just mindlessly shove here but the question is if we think we have almost zero fold equity, like we do here, can it really be good?

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

[ QUOTE ]
good enough equity to shove the flop vs his range. I'd rather do that then call and c/f turn ui personally. Let's try not to play "perfect" poker with no idea of the guys range

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think his raising range is? And what would you expect a 40/0 to fold after raising?

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

30 hand sample and i dont really know what his rising range is, that's what I'm guessing at. I guess it's weighted towards strong aces+, but he doesn't have to be bluffing much to make shoving +EV that's for sure.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

true, but he's never bluffing...he's simply hoping that we have a hand we don't want to fold.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

30 hands!!! we cant make statements like that.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

I don't see 40/0/0's run big multistreet bluffs (I know it's a small amount of hands), so I think if he's bluffing on flop, a call still may get us to showdown, or at least see a river card.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

one more time... 30 hands!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

[ QUOTE ]
one more time... 30 hands!!!!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're 40/0/0 through 30 hands, you're a station. The exact specifics of your station-y tendencies may not yet be determined, but you're a station.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

Here's a poker stove, giving a fairly tight calling range to our opponent, if we shove.

Board: 8s 2s Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.716% 46.14% 01.57% 14161 483.00 { As3s }
Hand 1: 52.284% 50.71% 01.57% 15563 483.00 { AA, 88, 22, AKs, A8s, A2s, KQs, AKo, A8o, A2o }

We're shoving in $234, to win $280

=280(.472) - 234(.528)
=132.16 - 123.55
= 8.61

So, against that calling range, the EV of shoving is $8.61.



edit: I'm retarded and can see I messed up already...in process of fixing

edit: seems like a shove is +$9 in EV after correcting my mistakes.

Re: 200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk
 

chop chop w/ that fixing